2023 NFL Draft: Florida QB Anthony Richardson a Mystery - Will He Be a Top 5 Pick?
Will Anthony Richardson be the third overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft?
Odds makers say so.
Better yet, is the former Florida Gators quarterback going in the first round or possibly slipping like last year’s projected first rounder Malik Willis? Last year the odd makers had Malik Willis going as high as No. 2 overall, and when the dust settled, Willis came off the board 84 picks later to the Tennessee Titans 86th overall.
Willis had two disadvantages heading into the NFL Draft. One, he was short by NFL standards at 6 feet tall and his accuracy was less than ideal. A dazzling arm that coincides with his incredible athleticism running the football made Willis special. Accuracy and mechanical nuances of the quarterback position became the biggest question marks surrounding his overall game. In his final season at Liberty, his first quarter statistics drop dramatically in the final quarter of his games. His 66.7 completion percentage dropped to 52.4, while this touchdown to interception ratio drastically changed from 8-1 to 2-3. An impressive 171.3 quarterback ranking in the opening quarter dipped to just 110.3 in the fourth quarter.
Richardson faces one less disadvantage heading into the NFL Draft. His size and athletic attributes ranked second to none. Those are the areas that have brought Richardson to the forefront of possibly being selected near the top of the first round. Accuracy is the one issue that plagued Willis and Richardson. The former Gators quarterback had a pass completion percentage of 60.6 in the first quarter, which dropped to 48.4 in the fourth quarter. Seven of his nine interceptions came in the second half. His pass rating of 169.3 in the first quarter plummeted in the fourth quarter to 115.2.
Richardson is currently the odds-on favorite to be the third player chosen in the draft behind former Alabama quarterback Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1966 that combined both leagues into one NFL Draft in 1967, there have only been three instances where quarterbacks have gone one, two and three overall in the last 56 years.
Year No. 1: 2021 Trevor Lawrence Jacksonville, 1999 Tim Couch Cleveland, 1971 Jim Plunkett New England
Year No. 2: 2021 Zach Wilson New York (Jets), 1999 Donovan McNabb Philadelphia, 1971 Archie Manning New Orleans
Year No. 3: 2021 Trey Lance San Francisco, 1999 Akili Smith Cincinnati, 1971 Dan Pastorini Houston
The overwhelming demand for top-flight passers has brought us to a day and age where college football has jaded the process of evaluating the positions. At the same time, there are the traditional demands and essential fundamentals of playing quarterback at the highest level. We have seen the collegiate game mask major deficiencies due to the way the game has evolved more vertically and spread out.
The demand for top-flight passers also comes to fantasy football. With dynasty fantasy football drafts around the corner, many questions are going to arise. This is the year to consult with your favorite fantasy experts as it pertains to rookie drafts.
The current odds list on FanDuel for the No. 1 overall pick has Richardson +2000, making him a longshot to walk across the stage first to meet Commissioner Roger Goodell on the night of April 27th in Kansas City for day one of the 2023 NFL Draft. However, he is the current favorite to be the third player chosen in the 2023 NFL Draft.
2023 NFL Draft – No. 3 OVERALL PICK ODDS
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida +100
Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama +250
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State +600
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky +700
Christian Gonzalez, DB, Oregon +2000
Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas +2000
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama +2000
Richardson is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, to borrow the famous phrase. He is physically imposing with awe-inspiring natural abilities. Talking with one NFC coach during the week of the combine, used the word “commanding” to describe his physical stature and presence in a room. Those are tremendous qualities that are part of the reason Richardson is so highly sought after – Or is he?
Comparing Richardson to the last ten quarterbacks drafted in round one, his numbers fail to meet those of his counterparts already playing in the National Football League. The average completion percentage is 70% and that places Richardson 16.2% below their average at 53.8 during their final season of college football.
LAST TEN QUARTERBACKS DRAFTED IN ROUND 1
Final Season Stats CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD INT RTG
Kenny Pickett 334 497 4,319 67.2 8.7 42 7 165.3
Trevor Lawrence 231 334 3,153 69.2 9.4 24 5 169.2
Zach Wilson 247 336 3,692 73.5 11.0 33 3 196.4
* Trey Lance 208 318 2,947 65.4 9.5 30 1 173.8
Justin Fields 158 225 2,100 70.2 9.3 22 6 175.6
Mac Jones 311 402 4,500 77.4 11.2 41 4 203.1
Joe Burrow 402 527 5,671 76.3 10.8 60 6 202.0
Tua Tagovailoa 180 252 2,840 71.4 11.3 33 3 206.9
Justin Herbert 286 428 3,471 66.8 8.1 32 6 156.8
Jordan Love 293 473 3,402 61.9 7.2 20 17 129.1
* Indicates entire career – Lance played one game in the final season due to Covid
FINAL SEASON STATS
Anthony Richardson 176 327 2,549 53.8 7.8 17 9 131.0
In 2021, I asked multiple NFL decision makers this question at the NFL Combine – What is the biggest deterrent when evaluating a quarterback?
Kevin Colbert, former Pittsburgh Steelers GM
“Inaccuracy. I think if you study quarterbacks over history, accuracy at the collegiate level is usually a great indicator of accuracy at the professional level, albeit in a different game. A lot of the college game is leaking into our game, so there are more similarities than there have been in recent years. But I think that’s the one trait of a quarterback—again, they’re all going to be different sizes, they’re all going to have different arm talent, they’re all going to have different athletic abilities. But if you ask me one thing that I think can identify a potentially tough quarterback, it would be accuracy.”
Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs HC
“If they can’t throw the ball from me to you. Accuracy becomes a big thing and then if they’re not smart.”
Jason Licht, Tampa Buccaneers GM
“I think one thing that does not get talked about enough – and just because we’ve seen the best for the last couple years – is the leadership that a quarterback has and how important that is, how his teammates feel about him and how they want to work for him, and how he gets the best out of them. He does not have to be the most talented. He doesn’t have to have the strongest arm. He does need to be smart, and he does need to be a true leader and elevate his teammates. That’s hard to gauge.”
Eric DeCosta, Baltimore Ravens GM
“I think quarterback, the position, has really changed over the years. And there's a lot of different things. You want a guy that's a winner. Obviously, being a smart player, being an instinctive player, is something that you look for. And then: What does he do special? What's special about him? Does he have an arm? What kind of arm does he have? Does he have a strong arm? Is he accurate? I think accuracy is really, really important. And then as we've seen with our quarterback, athletic ability -- the ability to escape, the ability to create plays, to make big plays, explosive plays. And I would say leadership. Does the guy have the ability to put the team on his back in critical situations and really lift the team, lift the franchise, lift the organization and make that organization better than it would be without him?”
John Lynch, San Francisco 49ers GM
“That position is so critical. Everything goes into it, their talent just as in every position, but everything is magnified at that position. Lots of times, you must make projections from college to the NFL because the game is played a little bit differently. Levels of competition, there are so many things that go into it, just like every position. But as I said, the importance of that position just makes your decision so critical. So, I just think it takes a lot of hard work and it takes some good fortune to hit on the right guys, but when you do it, it can do wonders for your team.”
Scott Fitterer, Carolina Panthers GM
“Just the command that they would have, the ability to learn, how they process. Those are things that would really bother you as you’re going through the process. But you look at what they can do. Is it correctable? Can you work with them? Those are the biggest things. But those first three would probably be the biggest turn-offs looking at quarterbacks.”
Joe Douglas, New York Jets GM
“Obviously, you’re looking for leadership. You’re looking for mental, physical, and psychological confidence. You have to have a certain amount of ruggedness to handle all the slings and arrows heading your way. Timing, anticipation, and accuracy.”
The recurring theme amongst those executives asked was leadership and accuracy. Those two intangibles sort of identify the qualities that help encompass the traits desired for players to be considered top prospects at the quarterback position. This is just the tip of the iceberg in the evaluation process, but it helps dial in on some of the most highly desired traits quarterback prospects should have to reach the very top.
The ability to gauge leadership cannot be measured and even accuracy and passing efficiency has plenty of different factors that go into the final numbers. The standards in the scouting process go way beyond simple statistics. Nonetheless, those numbers are part of the prospects resume heading in the NFL. Here is a quick peek at the top prospects at quarterback and their pass completion percentage and overall passing efficiency grade amongst the highest projected quarterback prospects in 2023.
School Player Pass Completion Rank in NCAA Pass Efficiency Rank in NCAA
Ohio State C.J. Stroud 66.3 22nd 177.7 1st
Tennessee Hendon Hooker 69.6 6th Tied 175.5 2nd
Alabama Bryce Young 64.5 41st 163.20 9th
Kentucky Will Levis 65.4 29th 151.2 35th
Florida Anthony Richardson 53.8 116th 131.0 93rd
When the draft begins on April 27th in Kansas City, teams aren’t drafting Richardson for the college quarterback he was, but for the projected NFL quarterback he can develop into. His athletic skills dominated the headlines at the NFL Combine. He set new combine records for quarterbacks in the broad jump (10’9) and vertical jump (40.5). His imposing 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds frame, along with his exceptional God-given talent, create the ultimate case study for NFL evaluators.
Is Richardson the next franchise quarterback of the future or a bust?
Often compared to Cam Newton, the first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, Richardson is a carbon copy of Newton in both size and physical abilities. Newton spent his first two years at Florida prior with just 12 pass attempts at Florida in 2007-08 prior to sitting out in 2009 during his transfer to Auburn. Newton's lone season as a starting quarterback was sensational. Richardson attempted only 66 passes during his first two years at Florida before taking over in 2022 for the Gators at quarterback. Richardson and Newton have similar college careers but make no mistake about it, Newton was light years ahead of Richardson entering the NFL.
Final Season Stats CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD INT RTG
Cam Newton 185 280 2,854 66.1 10.2 30 7 182.0
Anthony Richardson 176 327 2,549 53.8 7.8 17 9 131.0
That leads us to Josh Allen, who faced harsh criticism leaving Wyoming in 2017 regarding his accuracy while with the Cowboys. A lifetime college completion percentage of 56.2 left Allen lagging in an area critical to NFL success. Fortunately for Allen, he was partnered with current New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll, the former Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator. Daboll’s influence and Allen helped turn him into an MVP-caliber quarterback in the NFL. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is now the benefactor of Daboll’s quarterback whisperer teachings. A coach like Daboll cannot be undervalued.
Final Season Stats CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD INT RTG
Josh Allen 152 270 1,812 56.3 6.7 16 6 127.8
Anthony Richardson 176 327 2,549 53.8 7.8 17 9 131.0
Statistically, Allen and Richardson are nearly identical during their final season of college football. Allen, like Richardson, is another massive-sized quarterback (6’5 and 237lbs) but doesn’t come close to matching Richardson's athleticism, but then again, few do. For Richardson to reach his full potential, he’ll need to go to an organization that is willing to go to the farthest extremes to help nurture and develop the rawness of his game, much like the Bills did with Allen.
Throughout the draft process, I’ve heard nothing but positive reviews in terms of the character Richardson brings to the room. His success at the next level only enhances how we all spend all Sunday
afternoons watching the NFL. This article was written to provide some clarity to those who plan on waging money on if he’ll be the third overall pick on April 27th in Kansas City.
What direction are you wagering your money? Is he getting drafted third overall?
