Examining the Different Fourth Down Philosophies of Giants, Chargers
After 11 weeks of watching his team showcase one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL--one which had averaged under 20 points per game and held the worst red-zone scoring rate--New York Giants head coach Joe Judge had finally seen enough for even his patient, “trust the process” mentality.
He played the card many expected a second-year coach with a then 9-17 record looking to protect his backside. Not being one to bash his players, Judge decided the responsibility would fall on former offensive coordinator Jason Garrett’s shoulders, whom the Giants parted ways with after just 26 games.
However, the personnel change did little to jumpstart the woeful Giants offense. Instead, their embarrassing outputs have only worsened over the past two weeks, as the Giants posted a combined 22 points and 1-4 red zone scoring rate in that period. The Giants remain dead last in the latter category (41.9 percent) and have only scored two passing touchdowns over their last three games--none of those being scored by a running back or wide receiver.
Having one less scapegoat around him, Judge has started to feel the heat for the Giants’ continued offensive failures and questionable in-game decisions. That was certainly the case last Sunday in his postgame press conference following the Giants’ 20-9 loss to the Miami Dolphins, during which Judge was questioned about his decision not to go for it on a crucial fourth-down play in the third quarter of a tightly contested game.
Overall, the Giants have incorporated a relatively conservative approach to handling fourth-down plays this season. They’ve greatly favored taking the space they have downfield and utilizing their special teams unit, with weapons like punter Riley Dixon, to pin the opposition deep in their own territory and force the long drive.
That trend continued Sunday on 4th down and two at Miami’s 46-yard line, where the Giants offense stalled after three plays and had a dilemma of whether to go for it down 10-6 and extend a possible scoring drive. As you could have guessed, Judge decided to have Dixon punt for the fourth time and send back out his defense, much to the ire of the media and fans watching.
Part of this can be attributed to the Giants’ offense having issues with depth at the skilled positions due to injuries. Yet for Judge, it simply was about playing the field game and trusting the defense to give them the ball back.
“We had -- I think it was three straight three and outs at that point,” Judge said about the punt. “Defense was really playing well.”
“That was a spot right there that I felt that points were really at a premium in that game. We didn't want to give them a short field. [We] wanted to make sure if they had to be on offense they had to take a long field.”
Judge was right--points were a rare gem in Sunday’s loss, and the Giants couldn’t score enough of them the remainder of the game. They managed just one field goal to the Dolphins’ 13 points as the defense crumbled late in the second half to secure their eighth loss in another lost season.
While there was no indication from Judge that the Giants will change up their fourth down ideology moving forward, it makes for an interesting comparison as they prepare for their Week 14 matchup on the West Coast.
This weekend, the Giants will face a Los Angeles Chargers team (7-5) that not only boasts one of the top passing offenses in the league but whose head coach carries quite a different philosophy when it comes to going for it on fourth down.
Under first-year head coach Brandon Staley, the Chargers have been all about “risking it for the biscuit” when their offense finds itself stalled. This season, the Chargers rank 14th in the NFL in fourth-down attempts and second in fourth-down conversion, holding an astounding 61.9 percent. (The Giants are at 50 percent.)
The team’s aggressive approach was something Staley and the Chargers’ coaching staff came in emphasizing, given the talented skill players on the roster, notably quarterback Justin Herbert and wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. For them, it’s all about advancing the ball and putting the offense in the best positions to put points on the board.
“We really wanted to have aggressive modeling going into the season and take into consideration one of the strengths of our team, and that’s our quarterback and our skill group,” Staley said Wednesday. “I think the goal is to create as many opportunities for your offense to score the ball and that’s the name of the game, scoring the football.”
Staley’s modeling seems to be working for the Chargers. Through 13 weeks, they’re ranked fifth in passing first downs accumulated, second in average yards per drive (37), and sixth in average points per drive (2.51). The Chargers have scored a total of 32 red-zone touchdowns in 50 attempts, giving them a 64 percent red-zone scoring rate that is nearly 25 percentage points better than the Giants’.
Even when it hasn’t worked out, Staley feels the Chargers have established a sound, consistent plan for going for it on fourth down that values the data of a particular team or situation and has developed a more robust team identity on both sides of the football.
The Chargers coach said he hasn’t felt like the team has been overly “reckless” with their conversion attempts, but they’ve taken the failed opportunities as a learning tool to prepare the defense for handling such an instance.
“Any time that we feel we’re in an advantaged situation, then we’re going to use those tactics to the fullest and I think that’s what we’ve tried to do this year is to be smart and sound with our decision-making, not reckless,” he said.
“There have been some that have worked out and some that haven’t, but we’ve been proud of our process, and our team has established an identity in terms of how we want to play the game and play the game on our terms.
"To me, it’s really about scoring the football and giving your offense as many opportunities as possible. Then from a defensive perspective, we’re going to be ready to address any of those circumstances that don’t go our way.”
The same can’t be said for Judge and the Giants offense that has seemed to lack any semblance of a plan for approaching third- or fourth-and-short scenarios. In most of their opportunities, the team has either been confused with some aspect of the play or out of touch with the play clock, forcing them to burn costly timeouts, punt the ball away and send their defense out for more grueling work.
The Giants have converted 40 fewer first downs than their opponents this season and are down to averaging 17.6 points per contest and 1.53 points per drive (30th in the league).
They have an incredibly stout defense that has been one of the best at keeping teams out of the end zone this season. The Giants defense ranks tenth in opponents red zone scoring percentage (54.3 percent) and has done a solid job of limiting opposing offenses to a 5 of 12 scoring rate inside the 20 over their last several games.
The Giants defense may serve as a solid test for the Chargers’ fourth down aggressiveness. Nevertheless, Staley is confident in his modeling’s ability to factor in opponents’ adjustment and adjust smartly on the fly.
“I think you take everybody’s history into consideration, but there have been some teams that have changed against us knowing they’re playing against us. We’ve seen that as the season has gone on, so we’re going to factor that into our equation, too. There are those game day adjustments that you have to make if a team is going to assess you differently and decide to play an aggressive football game.”
If nothing else, you likely won’t see the Chargers doing anything crazy against the Giants defense on fourth-and-long situations to put themselves at immense risk. Still, Staley isn’t afraid to go for it in certain situations to test the resolve of his defense as well.
“I feel like, like I said, you go into those decisions and you don’t look back, but you know that if it doesn’t go down, the reality is that you’re trying to create the counterculture on the other side of the ball. If you don’t get it, that other side of the ball, they’re ready to go,” he said.
While it is hard to indefinitely call out the Giants' lack of aggressiveness on fourth down as the main cause for their minute success this season in scoring the football, it’s apparent that taking smart risks from time to time could help as it has for the Chargers. Their system has not been perfect, but it’s empowered the offense to extend drives, score more points, and keep the pressure off their defense from having to perform a shutout to earn a win.
"You’ve got to balance that out and play situational to the game," Judge said. "I say it all the time, sometimes people look at not being aggressive because you punt the ball. Alright, well sometimes you’re being extra aggressive saying, ‘No, I know our defense is going to go out there and stop these guys.’ So, I’m being aggressive with our defense to go out there and make a play and get the field position back for the offense.
"It all depends on how you define aggressiveness. I’ve gone for it on fourth down, I’ve got no problem doing that. I’ve got no problem running fakes. We’ve got them in every week. When the situation arises, I’ll go ahead and I’ll pull the trigger on it. In terms of conservative, we’re going to call the game that the flow of the game needs to be called and we’re going to do things situationally that puts us in a position to have success."
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