Packers vs. Lions: Three Reasons to Worry in Week 18

The Green Bay Packers must beat the Detroit Lions to punch their ticket into the NFL playoffs. Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Jan 7, 2023 8:32 PM EST

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. –The Detroit Lions are mad. With no playoff wins in three decades, they’re tired being a laughingstock. They’re tired of losing to the Green Bay Packers. They’re tired of being bullied by Aaron Rodgers.

The Lions have something to prove on Sunday night at Lambeau Field. If the Los Angeles Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks, they’ll have a chance to earn a spot in the NFL playoffs. Even if they’re eliminated by kickoff, the Lions would relish playing the role of spoiler and sending a message to Green Bay.

“Our guys are excited,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said on Friday. “These opportunities don’t always come around and you don’t always what they’re going to be, but one day you’re going to look back and say, ‘Man, you had these special moments that you were able to be a part of.’ And I try to tell those guys you just don’t know when those are going to come up or what it’s going to mean, but I know this, when you’re done playing, you miss the hell out of it. And this will be one of those moments I believe they’ll always remember, this group, this team.”

The Packers have a chance to get back to the playoffs if they can complete their running of the table by beating the Lions. Here are three reasons why it won’t happen.

1. Big-Play Lions

With a superb offensive line to give him time, Lions quarterback Jared Goff is going to have time to attack. He’s having a big-time season, ranking seventh in passer rating (100.2) and eighth in yards per attempt (7.62).

Here’s the challenge for Green Bay. Putting Jaire Alexander against Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson and Rasul Douglas against Adam Thielen made sense from speed and substance perspectives. Putting Alexander against Lions star Amon-Ra doesn’t make a lot of sense because who’s going to match up with the speed of Detroit’s D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams?

St. Brown, who is seventh with 100 receptions and 12th with 1,112 yards, is a big-time player. He is elite in the slot and possesses a bulldog mentality. He ranks third among receivers in yards after the catch.

“I think the best thing about him is like he’s just a competitor,” Alexander said. “That’s the best attribute he has. He’s competitive. You’ve got to respect a competitor. I am, as well.”

Clark, with 4.34 speed in the 40, was on injured reserve for the first matchup. The last five games, he’s got three games of 94-plus yards, five receptions of 28-plus yards and caught all five targets on passes of 20-plus yards. Williams, who might have been the fastest player in this year’s draft if not for the torn ACL that ended his final season at Alabama, made his debut five games ago. He’s caught only 1-of-8 passes but that was for 41 yards and a touchdown. He had a 40-yard run last week.

Whether it’s throwing it deep or run after catch, Detroit enters the week ranked fourth with 56 completions of 20-plus yards.

2. Lions Running Game

The most encouraging thing about Green Bay’s defensive performance vs. Minnesota wasn’t necessarily how it limited Justin Jefferson to just one reception out of five targets. Rather, it was how Green Bay limited Justin Jefferson while also stopping Dalvin Cook.

Cook, one of the best runners in the league, carried the ball nine times for 27 yards, a meager 3.0-yard average with a long of 9. That included a pivotal third-and-goal stop after a blocked punt. The Vikings finished the day with 102 yards and a 5.1-yard average, deceiving numbers based on Kirk Cousins’ three scrambles for 37 yards and some inconsequential slop at the end for Alexander Mattison.

“I thought our guys up front, the whole group, I thought they played physical right the start,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “Really, from when they had the ball on the 1-yard line [following the block], I think our defensive line and our front – I include Dre (De’Vondre Campbell) and Quay (Walker) in that when I say ‘the front’ – I thought they set the tone and the mind-set early.”

Was it a turning point? Green Bay enters the game ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed per game (141.8) and 27th in rushing yards allowed per carry (5.00).

Detroit has a much better offensive line than the group Green Bay faced last week. The Vikings quickly were down two starters. Led by second-year right tackle Penei Sewell, the Lions have a bruising front that thrives on downhill runs. It’s test-your-manhood stuff. That plays right into the hands of former Packers running back Jamaal Williams, who needs six yards to reach 1,000 and one rushing touchdown to tie Barry Sanders’ franchise record of 16.

“Jamaal’s a guy that is tough to root against us, although I’ll find it in my body to do that on Sunday,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “This is a people business, first and foremost, and you develop relationships with these guys. Hopefully we can hold him down, but he is a tough, gritty competitor. He’s a little bit of the epitome of what they’re all about. They’ve got a lot of tough, gritty guys. He’s a guy that I think is severely underrated.”

Williams is the same player he was in Green Bay. There’s not a lot of flash to his game. If the play is blocked for 2 yards, he’s going to gain 4. It will take four guys to tackle him, and he’ll get up with a smile and want more. There are 34 running backs with at least 140 carries. He is eighth in carries, 10th in yards, 26th in average per carry (4.04) and 27th in yards after contact per carry (2.77), according to Pro Football Focus.

His sidekick, D’Andre Swift, is averaging 5.6 yards per carry with 3.17 after contact. He has more 15-yard runs (eight) than Williams (seven) in 153 fewer carries.

“He’s one of the happiest teammates we’ve ever had, one of the greatest guys in the locker room that I’ve been able to work with, not just an absolute tough guy and a stud on the field but a great, interesting person off the field,” Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said of Williams.

If Williams and Swift get rolling, it’s going to be a long night for Green Bay – and perhaps a long offseason, too. Lions quarterback Jared Goff is No. 1 in the league with a 125.9 rating on play action.

3. Can Packers Keep Pace?

Green Bay’s offense just hasn’t caught fire. The “young receivers” excuse expired long ago. The offensive line is intact. The backfield is intact. The receiver corps is intact.

It’s time to move the ball and score touchdowns with regularity.

During Green Bay’s four-game winning streak, 33 quarterbacks dropped back for at least 60 passes, according to PFF. While Detroit’s Jared Goff is second in passer rating during that span, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is only 15th in passer rating, 13th in completion percentage and 15th in yards per attempt. He’s thrown three touchdowns vs. two interceptions. On passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, he’s just 3-of-12.

It’s mediocre football. To be fair, less has been asked of Rodgers. The running game has been great, the defense has produced turnovers by the bushel and Keisean Nixon has provided great field position. The scoreboard is the only thing that matters; Green Bay is fourth with 29.8 points per game during its winning streak. Still, the Rodgers-to-Christian Watson connection, which showed such promise, has fizzled of late. There were opportunities against the Vikings that Rodgers missed.

If the Lions score 30, can Rodgers and Co. score 31?

“Everything we do in our offense is to try and set up those chunk plays, those explosive passes,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “Yeah, we’ve just got to be better there, definitely, this game. We’re expecting Detroit to come out swinging on all cylinders. So, we’ve got to be ready to go and make some big plays against them.”