4 Things to Watch: Defense Makes the Difference in Steelers vs Panthers
The Pittsburgh Steelers will battle Carolina for the first time since 2018 when the Steelers blew out the Panthers 52-21 in primetime.
This year's matchup figures to be a lower-scoring affair, with both teams barely hanging on to their playoff hopes. Carolina once looked to be in line for a top-five draft pick, but after firing their head coach Matt Rhule, interim head coach Steve Wilks has reeled off several wins as the interim shot caller. Pittsburgh looks to bounce back from a disappointing home loss against the Baltimore Ravens, and they'll have to proceed with one of their backup quarterbacks.
Here's what to watch for.
Carolina's Two Young Superstars on Defense
The Panthers' defense ranks around the middle of the pack in most major statical categories but despite being in the middle of a rebuild, they have two of the best foundational young pillars you could ask for in Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn.
Burns is an electrifying speed rusher who wins up the arch with speed, bends the corner through contact, or uses a plethora of pass-rushing moves at his disposal to get home. Burns has been a good player since the moment he was drafted but has taken his game to another level this year, notching double-digit sacks and leading the NFL in total pressures with 60.
What makes all of this even more impressive is that Burns supporting cast up front is devoid of impactful pass rushers, forcing them to blitz at an incredibly high rate and allowing teams to key in on stopping him on each rep.
And then there's Jaycee Horn, the eighth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Just 23 years old and coming off of a season-ending ACL injury, Horn has not only rounded back into form but he's established himself as one of the game's elite.
Blessed with a unique combination of size and athleticism, Horn has the skill set to cover any body type that comes with opposing receivers, and his aggressive play style leads to competitive reps throughout film study. Last week, Horn shadowed Seahawks star wideout D.K. Metcalf and did more than hold his own, picking off the game's first pass and nearly coming down with another, which was overruled after review.
The former South Carolina star leads the NFL in passer rating against (35.8) and is second in snaps per reception allowed (17.9).
Same Game Plan Defensive... For Better or Worse
Part of the reason for the Panthers' success under Steve Wilks is that they seem to have found their identity on offense, a run game capable of leaving opposing defenses feeling helpless. Since Wilks took over as the shot caller, the Panthers' offense ranks sixth in rushing EPA/play, delivering a promise he made during his introductory press conference.
While the organization jettisoned Christian McCaffrey to the bay area, Carolina was able to find its new workhorse in D'Onta Foreman. Since becoming the starter in Week 8, Foreman ranks fourth among tailbacks in rushing yards and rushing yards after contact. Foreman's downhill running style fits the Panthers gap-based scheme well, and he also has enough wiggle to where he's not strictly one-dimensional as a runner.
It's no secret that the Steelers' run defense has fallen off of a cliff over the past two weeks, allowing 361 rushing yards in their past two outings. The Panthers' run game isn't too dissimilar to the one they struggled with last week, granted there is less of a threat for quarterback runs. Pittsburgh will now be without Chris Wormley in the rotation and will likely rely more on Isiaiahh Loudermilk and DeMarvin Leal to pick up the slack. The former really struggled last week in limited action, getting blasted out of gaps and the latter has played almost exclusively at edge during his rookie campaign.
The Panthers aren't bashful about letting teams know their game plan offensively, and if the Steelers fail to get physical up front and detach from blocks at a higher rate, it's likely to be another long afternoon.
Turnover Story
The narrative around the turnover battle is more critical when teams are either fairly matched or have non-explosive offenses. Both Pittsburgh and Carolina fit that bill, as both squads want to win with ball control on offense and stifling defense.
Neither the Steelers nor the Panthers have won a game all season in which they lost the turnover battle to the other team. When the Steelers were able to make a bit of a run, winning three out of four games out of the bye week, they were +9 in the turnover department, providing an obvious blueprint on what's needed in order to come out victorious on their end. There is no better example of that than last week's game against Baltimore, when the offense turned the football over three times in opposing territory, costing them costly opportunities on the scoreboard.
That, of course, is even more notable now that Mitch Trubisky has been named the Steelers starter. Kenny Pickett will not be available due to a concussion that he suffered early in the matchup last week, which marked his second concussion in a matter of months. Trubisky did some really solid things in relief as he moved the ball down the field in between the 20s with relative ease, but the interceptions were extraordinarily costly.
Both of the final two picks were just decisions that you wouldn't expect from a six-year veteran signal-caller who's now playing for his third team in his career. Trubisky didn't hold the post safety in the middle of the field with his eyes on one rep and then stared down Pat Freiermuth in the middle of the field on the other instance.
Mike Tomlin elected to play coy all week about who would be the starter, giving Mason Rudolph plenty of work with the ones in practice. If Trubisky can't take care of the football, expect Tomlin to make the switch swiftly in order to try and win the game.
Mike Tomlin's Streak in Jeopardy
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has put together a remarkable streak of non-losing seasons in Pittsburgh since being hired as Bill Cowher's replacement way back in 2007. There have been many close calls, some 8-8 seasons that came down to the wire, but he's always been able to steer the ship and keep the squad extremely competitive.
This year hasn't gone according to plan for a myriad of reasons, and the Steelers currently own the fifth-worst point differential in the league at -66. The chance of the Steelers winning out are pretty slim, but Tomlin is fighting the inevitable and trying to delay owning a losing record for at least another week.
20 seems like the magic number this week for Tomlin's Steelers. Pittsburgh is 0-5 this season when allowing more than 20 points, while Carolina has registered 20 points in six of their last seven matchups, the lone exception coming against Baltimore a few weeks ago.
The path to victory is pretty straightforward, but the plan will have to be executed with a backup quarterback who has some chaotic tendencies capable of shooting themselves out of the game, just like we saw last week.
It's been a heck of a run for Tomlin's impressive streak, and while you can't count him out just yet, they've dug themselves quite the hole late in the season. With playoff odds almost extinct, the Steelers are playing for pride at this point... and to keep their head coach's streak alive.
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