Maple Leafs Hoping to Repeat History Against Senators

The Toronto Maple Leafs are hoping to make history against the Ottawa Senators.

Apr 24, 2025; Ottawa, Ontario, CAN; The Toronto Maple Leafs celebrate a goal goal scored by center Auston Matthews (34) in game three of the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre. Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images / Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images

The Toronto Maple Leafs have the Ottawa Senators backed into a corner. The Leafs hold a 3-0 series lead in their opening-round matchup. With one more loss, the Senators' season will end disappointingly.

With one more win over the Senators, the Maple Leafs can repeat history. The last time Toronto recorded a four-game sweep in the postseason was back in the first round of the 2001 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Their opponent in 2001? None other than the Ottawa Senators.

The Battle of Ontario has been action-packed and closer than the Leafs' 3-0 series suggests. They've gone to overtime in back-to-back contests. It's giving the Senators understandable hope that they could miraculously bounce back in the series and become the fifth team in NHL history to come back from a 0-3 series deficit.

Unfortunately, the history of the NHL and the first three games of this series suggest otherwise.

Despite the Senators keeping things close, battling back, and forcing overtime, it's still the Leafs scoring the final goal. The Sens are displaying resiliency, but the playoffs only allow a finite number of opportunities to bounce back before elimination.

For the Leafs to repeat history, they have to find a way to control 5-on-5 play in Game 4. In the past two contests, the even strength play has been split or favors Ottawa. Only one line was on the ice for more goals scored than given up, and that was their top group of Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, and Mitch Marner. According to MoneyPuck's Game 3 data, two of the four lines that played more than eight minutes of ice time at 5-on-5 were greatly outshot.

The shots are just a piece of the puzzle, but it's more evidence that the Senators are hanging around. The Maple Leafs have to snuff this out by improving their even-strength play. If they do that, they will repeat history and sweep their provincial rivals.

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