Top 5 American League MVP Candidates: Odds, Best Bet, Predictions

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is the early favorite to win the American League MVP award in 2025. Who is his biggest competition and who will ultimately be crowned the 2025 AL MVP?

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a two-run home run during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game five of the 2024 MLB World Series at Yankee Stadium. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Fresh off a dominant 2024 season, Aaron Judge stands as the early favorite to claim the American League MVP in 2025. His prodigious power and consistent production make him the front-runner, but the race is packed with talent. Emerging superstar Bobby Witt Jr. and breakout sensation Gunnar Henderson are hot on his heels, while proven sluggers Corey Seager and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are primed to make their mark. Let’s dive into the top five favorites in the American League MVP betting market, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, and assess their outlook for the upcoming season.

OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+300)

After a sluggish start, hitting just .207 in April, Aaron Judge erupted over the next four months, slashing .369 with 93 runs, 45 home runs, 105 RBIs, and six steals over 360 at-bats. He delivered almost identical production at home (.328/65/31/71/5) and on the road (.316/57/27/73/5), while excelling against both left-handed pitchers (.326/94/42/106 over 427 at-bats) and righties (.311/28/16/38/5 over 132 at-bats). Throughout the season, Judge held firm in the Yankees' three-hole.

With the addition of veterans Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger to replace Juan Soto at a lower cost, Judge's RBI opportunities might dip slightly. However, his raw power remains elite, as evidenced by his career-high 95 extra-base hits in 2024. Judge has reached at least 550 at-bats in three of the past four seasons, aided by more appearances as a DH (41 games last year). Banking on 50+ home runs with solid production in runs, RBIs, and batting average is a safe bet. Unlocking an even higher ceiling hinges on maintaining his career-best 24.3% strikeout rate. However, durability remains a concern, as Judge missed 30 or more games in 2018 (50), 2019 (60), 2020 (32), and 2023 (56).

SS Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (+310)

Bobby Witt Jr. has officially arrived, and there’s still room for him to elevate his game. With the fastest sprint speed in the majors (30.5) for two consecutive seasons, he has the potential to swipe 50+ bases if he becomes more aggressive on the basepaths. Unlocking his true power lies in improving against left-handed pitching, which could push him to 40+ home runs.

The primary concern for Witt is his RBI opportunities, as he's never had more than 370 chances in a season, limiting his production compared to the league's top run producers. To boost his RBI totals, Witt either needs a stronger leadoff hitter ahead of him or a shift to the third spot in the lineup. His 19.3% HR/FB rate from the minors in 2021 hints at even greater power potential. With shortstop eligibility, a potential 40/40 season, and an edge in runs, RBIs, and batting average, Witt has the tools to outperform Shohei Ohtani in 2025.

SS Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (+650)

In 2024, the Orioles boasted an impressive offense, ranking fourth in runs scored (786) and second in home runs (235). While the team made adjustments to their left field wall during the offseason, it won't provide much of an advantage to Gunnar Henderson, who swings from the left side of the plate. However, his efficiency on the basepaths (31-for-38 over the past two seasons) suggests he’s primed for even more opportunities this year.

Henderson has the potential to evolve into a player reminiscent of Mike Trout, albeit with a slightly lower launch angle and fly-ball swing path. He’s trending toward a batting title and has the tools to put up a stellar 120/40/120/40 season. For optimal success, Baltimore’s top prospect, Jackson Holliday, securing the leadoff spot would allow Henderson to thrive in the third spot in the lineup.

SS Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (+1100)

Seager possesses the tools to deliver a .300/100/40/120 stat line if he secures the third spot in the batting order and racks up 600 at-bats. While his lack of stolen bases sets him apart from the elite shortstops of 2025, his immense hitting ability makes him a cornerstone bat, much like a power-hitting corner infielder. Drafting Seager is all about roster strategy, and his potential shouldn’t be overlooked. Consider him a high-upside, moderate-risk option, especially if he falls to a discounted spot in drafts.

1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (+1400)

Guerrero posted a 6.71 FPGscore in 2024, ranking 11th among batters. In the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, he’s the 13th hitter off the board. His ability to rack up RBIs hinges on a bounce-back year from Bo Bichette, while the Blue Jays’ lineup behind him remains uncertain. At just 26, Guerrero has already established himself as a premier hitter. With his power surge over the final four months of last season, he’s on the cusp of a breakout campaign. Expect 40+ home runs and the potential for 10 stolen bases as he gears up for his free agency push in 2026.

Best Bet: Bobby Witt Jr. (+310)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 

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