American League Cy Young Award Candidates: Best Bets & Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Coming off an electric 2024 campaign, Tarik Skubal established himself as a bona fide ace. He leads the American League Cy Young odds heading into 2025. His dominant repertoire and elite command make him the front-runner, but the competition is fierce. Rising stars like Garrett Crochet and Cole Ragans, along with established arms in Logan Gilbert and a returning Jacob deGrom, are all poised to challenge for the award. Let’s dive into the top five favorites in the American League Cy Young betting market, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, and assess their fantasy baseball potential for the upcoming season.

SP Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (+350)

Greatness flowed from Skubal’s left arm in 2024, culminating in his American League Cy Young victory. The southpaw dominated the league, leading in wins (18), ERA (2.39), and strikeouts (228) while logging a career-best 192.0 innings—an impressive 87-inning increase from the prior season. Skubal surrendered more than three runs in just five of his 31 outings and held opponents to one run or fewer in 17 games, securing 14 victories in those starts. His command was equally effective against right-handed hitters (.204 BAA) and lefties (.186 BAA).

Tarik Skubal will be on a quest for a second straight AL Cy Young Award this season 👀 pic.twitter.com/e5gfhneXjW
— MLB (@MLB) March 13, 2025

After overcoming a left elbow injury that required flexor tendon surgery in 2022 and 2023, Skubal emerged as Detroit’s ace. With two more seasons of team control, the Tigers must capitalize on his dominance to make a postseason push. However, his dramatic workload increase raises durability concerns. With Detroit’s projected win total set at 83.5 in 2025, Skubal is on track for another stellar campaign, potentially tallying 15 wins, a sub-3.00 ERA, and 225 strikeouts across 32 starts.

SP Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (+370)

Crochet’s potential burst onto the scene last spring, garnering fantasy attention after securing a spot in Chicago’s starting rotation. He dazzled through his first three starts, posting a 2.00 ERA, 0.722 WHIP, with just one walk and 21 strikeouts. However, his early dominance unraveled over the next three outings, surrendering 17 runs, 23 baserunners, and four home runs across 11.1 innings, despite striking out 19.

Fantasy managers faced a dilemma: hold or cut bait. Crochet responded with a sensational 12-start stretch, going 5-2 with a 1.63 ERA, 0.823 WHIP, and 101 strikeouts. Unfortunately, the White Sox managed his workload over the final three months, resulting in a 4.84 ERA, 1.388 WHIP, and eight homers allowed over 44.2 innings. Notably, three disastrous outings accounted for much of the damage (14 runs, 22 baserunners, and six homers over nine innings). Right-handed hitters capitalized on his sinker and cutter, responsible for 10 of his 18 home runs allowed.

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet (35) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at BayCare Ballpark. | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

With improved control (2.0 walks per nine), an elite strikeout rate (12.9 per nine, 35.1%), and a powerful fastball, Crochet became a coveted target for Boston as they aimed to bolster their rotation in the competitive AL East. However, his innings jump to 120.0 and injury history leave fantasy drafters with a tough call. His draft-day value makes him a high-risk, high-reward option.

SP Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (+900)

Ragans showcased impressive consistency last season, allowing three runs or fewer in 15 of his first 17 starts. This stellar run resulted in a 3.03 ERA, 1.153 WHIP, and 120 strikeouts over 98.0 innings. However, his two rough outings saw him surrender 14 runs, 18 baserunners, and one homer across eight innings. His performance dipped over the next 11 games, posting a 4.12 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, and eight home runs allowed over 63.1 innings, though he still notched 77 strikeouts. Ragans rebounded with a dominant September, recording a 1.08 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 25.0 innings.

"We learned a lot about each other, we became really close. It's more than just teammates, we're like a little family. We talk a lot, we talk about each other's outings..."

- Cole Ragans on the @Royals starting rotation pic.twitter.com/xlsFPOXGrD
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 13, 2025

Following Tommy John surgery in 2018, Ragans spent three years away from the game due to his recovery and the cancellation of minor league play in 2020. His ascent with the Royals, where he compiled a 16-11 record with a 3.00 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, and 312 strikeouts over 258.0 innings, highlights his potential as a rising ace. Leading the American League with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2024, Ragans is on the brink of stardom. Once he masters left-handed hitters and fine-tunes his command, he’ll become a true difference-maker. In 2025, fantasy managers should be ready to ride his arm to championship glory.

SP Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners (+1200)

Gilbert has been a model of durability, making every start over the past three seasons. Known for his exceptional command, he’s just a step away from becoming a dominant ace, with an edge in ERA and steadily improving strikeout numbers. For fantasy managers, securing a reliable arm that delivers elite innings can be a major advantage—especially if the rest of his stats follow suit. The key to his ascent lies in attacking the strike zone, and in 2024, Gilbert's first-pitch strike rate surged by over four percentage points to 67.7%. The momentum is building—hop on board.

SP Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers (+1400)

In the early draft season, fantasy managers are cautiously optimistic about deGrom's 2025 outlook. With ample recovery time from his elbow injury, there’s hope that his health struggles are in the rearview mirror. DeGrom’s elite skill set makes him a coveted asset, especially in high-stakes drafts come March, once he displays his dominance in spring training. When faced with the decision between Garrett Crochet or deGrom, the potential upside is undeniable. While I can’t predict his innings total, I’m confident he’ll deliver excellence when he's healthy. However, at the first sign of trouble, he moves to the “avoid” list.

Best Bet: Tarik Skubal (+350)

Longshot Wager: Logan Gilbert (+1200)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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SP Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (+350)

SP Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (+370)

SP Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (+900)

SP Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners (+1200)

SP Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers (+1400)

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