Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfielders (Tier 7)

Shawn Childs | Feb 17, 2025

Texas Rangers right fielder Adolis Garcia / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

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We continue to rank the top outfielders entering the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Let's break down the next tier:

31 – Jasson Dominguez, NYY (ADP – 155.5)

The Yankees signed Dominguez in 2019, but his minor league debut didn’t come until 2021 because there was no minor league baseball the previous year due to COVID-19. Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .274 over 1,339 at-bats with 255 runs, 47 home runs,189 RBIs, and 102 stolen bases. His walk rate (13.0) had top-of-the-order upside while posting some weakness in his strikeout rate (24.5).

Heading into 2024, Dominguez has 206 at-bats of experience at AAA (.325/39/7/35/18) while showing growth in his approach (strikeout rate – 17.0 and walk rate – 9.6). His contact batting average (.384) has been an area of strength in the minors.

The Yankees gave him 87 at-bats of experience over the past two seasons, leading to a .207 batting average with 14 runs, six home runs, 11 RBIs, and six stolen bases. He whiffed 27.0% of the time with a favorable walk rate (13.0).

His exit velocity (89.5 mph) in his time in New York was an edge, but Dominguez graded better in hard-hit rate (45.9). He had a groundball swing path (56.7%) with a shallow launch angle (5.1).

New York Yankees left fielder Jasson Dominguez / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Fantasy Outlook: The Yankees will give Dominguez every opportunity to win their starting centerfield position. He offers plus speed that should translate well in the majors. New York will move him to the top two slots in their batting order when his bat is ready. His price point in the early draft season requires him to earn a full-time starting job in 2025. Torn due to his risk/reward in his rookie campaign. Future 20/40 player with help in batting average.

32 – Adolis Garcia, TEX (ADP – 156.2)

After three high-ranking seasons in power and RBIs, Garcia had a regression in all his categories in 2024 despite coming to the plate 580 times. He set five-year lows in contact batting average (.323) and average hit rate (1.785) with no change in his strikeout rate (27.8). His walk rate (7.1) matched his career average but below 2023 (10.1%).

Garcia played well in April (.293/19/8/25/4 over 106 at-bats) last season. His batting average was below .200 in each of the next three months, leading to weaker stats (.179/32/10/29/5 over 285 at-bats) than expected. Over his final 189 at-bats, Garcia hit .254 with 17 runs, seven home runs, 31 RBIs, and two stolen bases. Most of his failures came at home (.203/31/11/40/7 over 341 at-bats).

He continued to have a fly-ball swing path (42.8%), but his timing looked off due to a spike in his infield flies (12.0%) and a career-low HR/FB rate (14.3 – 21.5 in 2023). Garcia ranked 50th in exit velocity (91.0 mph) and 32nd in hard-hit rate (48.2).

Adolis García got the @Rangers even in a HUGE way on Opening Day 💪

His bat flip comes in at #10 on our Top Bat Flips of 2024 countdown!

📺 MLB Network + @SportClips pic.twitter.com/x3IgIf5wNE
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 28, 2024

Fantasy Outlook: Late last year, Garcia suffered a left knee injury that didn’t require surgery. Other than stolen bases, his failure was partly due to the overall fade in Texas’s offense (683 runs) compared to 881 runs in 2023. He brings dirty power (meaning batting average risk with help in home runs), with a reasonable chance to bat fourth or fifth in the Rangers’ lineup. Let’s go with .240 with 80 runs, 25 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases.

33 – Colton Cowser, BAL (ADP – 161.2)

Cowser is another Orioles player with a first-round draft pedigree (fifth overall in 2021). He had a sensational final year at Sam Houston State (.374/61/16/52/17 over 203 at-bats) while taking more walks (42) than strikeouts (32).

Over his three seasons in the minors, Cowser hit .298 with 216 runs, 38 home runs, 162 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases over 953 at-bats. He had almost a full year of playing time under his belt at AAA (.280/95/22/73/9 over 428 at-bats). Cowser had a winning walk rate (14.7) at AAA while needing to clean up his strikeouts (27.7%). He posted an elite contact batting average (.438) when putting the ball in play in the minors.

After minimal at-bats over his first eight games (5-for-11 with one run and one RBI) last season with Baltimore, Cowser became a hot waiver wire add two weeks later (.341/9/6/16/3 over 44 at-bats). Unfortunately, his bat lost momentum over his next 42 games (.174 with 16 runs, one home run, 10 RBIs, and one stolen bases over 132 at-bats). Cowser finished the year with helpful value in runs (51), home runs (17), RBIs (42), and steals (5) over his final 312 at-bats while hitting .250. Over this span, he struck out 30.9% of the time (30.7% on the year). His walk rate (9.3) was favorable. Only five of his 24 home runs came against left-handed pitching over 134 at-bats.

His exit velocity (90.5 – 63rd) and hard-hit rate (46.1 – 54th) ranked in the top 30% for batters with 400 or more plate appearances. Cowser has a balanced swing path with a high floor in his HR/FB rate (18.6) and contact batting average (.370).

Players under 25 years old with above a .200 ISO in 2024:

Bobby Witt Jr.
Gunnar Henderson
Riley Greene
Elly De La Cruz
Jackson Merrill
Colton Cowser👀
pic.twitter.com/dXiQIvskej
— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) February 12, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: Coming into 2025, he has 560 at-bats of experience with the Orioles, leading to a .229 batting average with 92 runs, 23 home runs, 73 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases. He has some lost playing time risk against lefties, and Baltimore will hit him in the bottom half of their lineup. His experience last year should help his success this year, but any contact struggles could lead to Heston Kjerstad getting in his way for at-bats. Other than his batting average risk that can be overcome by his high contact batting average, Cowser has the tools to beat his 2024 output in all categories.

34 – Josh Lowe, TB (ADP – 165.6)

Lowe made the Rays out of spring training in 2023, making him an excellent value in the fantasy market (FPGscore – 3.74 ~ 29th best hitter) based on his free ADP (412). His bat flashed over his first 106 at-bats (22 runs, nine home runs, 28 RBIs, and six steals). He only hit four home runs over his next 189 at-bats, with 20 runs, 27 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases while posting a low batting average (.243). Lowe played well over his final 171 at-bats (.328/29/7/28/10).

An oblique injury late in February last year led to no playing time in spring training while starting the regular season on the injured list. Lowe returned to the Rays starting lineup on May 6th. After his first 14 games (.240/5/2/3 over 50 at-bats), he suffered another oblique issue. Other than 25 steals over his final 303 at-bats, his bat didn’t fire over the final four months (.241/32/8/31 over 303 at-bats). Lowe only had 108 at-bats over the past two seasons against left-handed pitching (.231/12/2/13).

Lowe finished with a higher exit velocity (90.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.1) than in 2023 (89.1/39.1). His fly-ball rate (41.8) was a career-high, but he posted a lower HR/FB rate (10.3). He had a severe spike in his strikeout rate (31.8 – 24.8% in 2023) with an improved walk rate (8.3).

Fantasy Outlook: The change in ballparks in Tampa this year should be a positive for Lowe’s power, and he has an elite success rate stealing bases in the majors (93.8%) and over his last two seasons in the minors (96.2%), which invites a much better season in 2025. His contact batting average (.370) has been an area of strength in his time with the Rays (.380) and in the minors (.394), offsetting some of his batting average risk. With a 20/30 season on his major league resume, Lowe has the potential to be an excellent value this season. His first step to securing 550+ bats is solving left-handed pitching.

35 – Nick Castellanos, PHI (ADP – 175.1)

Castellanos is on the back nine of his career. He profiles as an 80/20/80 player while chipping in with some steals. His contact batting average (.330) was a four-year low despite a rebound in his strikeout rate (21.1). Over the past two seasons, Castellanos missed only five games.

In 2024, he struggled in April (.193/11/2/9 over 114 at-bats). His bat delivered between four and five home runs in each of the final five months. Castellanos had the most overall success after the All-Star break (.287/36/10/39 over 237 at-bats). He had higher success vs. left-handed pitching (.269/23/10/34/1 over 156 at-bats).

Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos / Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

His exit velocity (88.3 mph) has been below his career average (89.0) over the past three seasons while also grading poorly in hard-hit rate (37.7). Castellanos posted a weaker HR/FB rate (12.6) than his best three years (23.7, 22.8, and 17.6) over the past five seasons. His fly-ball rate (38.8) has been under 40.0% since 2016.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his FPGscore (0.90 – 55th) in 2024, Castellanos is still a helpful player to a fantasy team. Last season, the Phillies gave him most of his at-bats in the fifth slot (34.4%) of the batting order. He comes over the board as the 98th hitter, making Castellanos a value if his 2025 stats fall in a similar range as last year.

31 – Jasson Dominguez, NYY (ADP – 155.5)

32 – Adolis Garcia, TEX (ADP – 156.2)

33 – Colton Cowser, BAL (ADP – 161.2)

34 – Josh Lowe, TB (ADP – 165.6)

35 – Nick Castellanos, PHI (ADP – 175.1)

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