Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Tier 10 Starting Pitchers

Shawn Childs | Feb 12, 2025

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Robbie Ray / D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

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We continue to rank the top starting pitchers heading into the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Fantasy on SI breaks down the next tier of pitchers:

46 – Taj Bradley, TB (ADP – 191.4)

2023 was expected to be a progression season for Bradley. Unfortunately, his arm was a disaster at AAA (6.45 ERA) due to poor command (4.8 walks per nine) and home runs (nine over 37.2 innings). Tampa called him up on April 12th, where Bradley teased over three appearances (3-0 with six runs, 12 hits, two walks, and 23 strikeouts). The Rays sent him back to AAA, and his arm was worthless over the remainder of the year (6.15 ERA, 1.508 WHIP, and 29 home runs over 120 innings with 135 strikeouts) between the minors and majors.

Bradley began 2024 on the injured list with a pectoral issue. After two elite starts at AAA (one run and three baserunners over 11.0 innings with 15 strikeouts), he made his major league debut on May 10th. The Red Sox and Orioles drilled him for 14 runs, 18 baserunners, and six home runs over 10.1 innings in two of his first five appearances, but Bradley allowed two runs or fewer in his 12 other games over his first 14 starts (9-5 with a 1.01 ERA, 0.901 WHIP, and 87 strikeouts over 71.0 innings). Unfortunately, his arm ran off the tracks over his next eight contests (8.27 ERA, 1.621 WHIP, and 12 home runs over 41.1 innings with 40 strikeouts). Bradley regained his rhythm over his final three appearances (three runs, 20 baserunners, and 17 strikeouts over 15.1 innings).

His average fastball (96.3) had plus velocity. He doubled the usage of his split-finger fastball (.209 BAA) at the expense of his curveball (.241 BAA). Batters handled his four-seamer (.268 BAA) but failed to make hard contact against his cutter (.198 BAA).

Remember that six week stretch in the middle of last season when Taj Bradley was one of the best pitchers in baseball?

6/8-7/25: 9 GS, 55 IP, 0.82 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 22.3% K-BB

Bradley could be a Top-25 SP if he can be more consistent.#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/b34D55DU2m
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 30, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: For 15 starts in 2024, Bradley delivered foundation ace stats. His next step is cleaning up his disaster outings and improving his success against left-handed batters (.252 BAA). He has the fastball to control the top of the strike zone and change a batter's eye with his developing elite split-finger pitch. On the verge of ace status with slightly better command and fewer mistakes leaving the park. Next step: a sub 3.25 ERA and 200+ strikeouts if given 30 starts. Don’t sleep at the wheel and try to finesse him.

47 – Robbie Ray, SF (ADP – 147.9)

A trip to the American League and a home schedule in multiple smaller ballparks didn’t hurt Ray’s success in 2021. He led the AL in ERA (2.84), WHIP (1.045), innings pitched (193.1), and strikeouts (248).

In 2022, Ray had a regression in his stats across the board. His arm came out flat over his first 12 starts (4.97 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 70.2 innings) due to struggles with home runs (14). He regained his 2021 form over his next 15 starts (2.27 ERA, .198 BAA, and 106 strikeouts over 91 innings) despite struggles in two games (10 runs, 19 baserunners, and three home runs over 5.2 innings). Unfortunately, Ray tripped up again over his final five starts (16 runs, 42 baserunners, and eight home runs over 27.1 innings with 29 strikeouts).

In his first start in 2023, he allowed three runs and nine baserunners over 3.1 innings with three strikeouts before blowing out his left elbow. By the end of April, Ray had TJ surgery, leading to no MLB game action for 16 months. Home runs (6) and walks (15) were a problem last year over his six starts (4.70 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, and 43 strikeouts over 30.2 innings). A hamstring issue in late August ended his season.

His average fastball (94.3) had a rebound in velocity. Ray still has a dominating slider (.148 BAA) and four-seamer (.164 BAA) while relying on his curveball as his third pitch (.250 BAA). He issued 15 of his 19 free passes via his fastball.

Fantasy Outlook: Ray will enter 2025 with only 34.0 innings pitched over the previous two seasons. Despite his struggles with command last season, his best two pitches were still challenging to hit, highlighted by his career-low hard-hit rate (35.4) and weaker exit velocity (86.8 mph). On the downside, he did pitch up in the strikeout zone (fly-ball rate – 53.1 – 39.5 in his career), inviting more home runs. Ray struggled with left-handed batters (7-for-21 with two home runs) last year. In his breakout season in 2021, his stuff showed more upside in spring training. I would look for that pattern again this year. I’m keeping an open mind about his potential in 2025.

48 – Sandy Alcantara, MIA (ADP – 157.30)

Over 40 starts in 2020 and 2021, Alcantara went 12-17 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, and 240 strikeouts over 247.2 innings. Despite throwing more strikes and being more challenging to hit (.212 BAA), his strikeout rate (8.1) regressed in 2022. Alcantara led the National League in innings pitched (228.2 – 7.1 innings per start), complete games (6), and batters faced (886).

When reviewing his profile after his significant setback in value in 2023, a fantasy drafter should be looking for hints of what went wrong. I already mentioned that Alcantara had a step back in strikeouts, but his whiff percentage (23.4) was close to 2022 (24.0). Conversely, his K/9 (8.1) showed more regression than his previous season (8.8). These two numbers tell different stories, which makes me wonder which data point is more relevant. From 2021 through 2023, he has an excellent strike percentage (67.9, 68.7, and 68.9).

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara / Ray Acevedo-Imagn Images

Here’s a look at his top four pitches over his last three seasons when on the mound:

2021 – Four-seamer (98.2 – .229 BAA), Changeup (91.9 – .229 BAA), sinker (97.7 – .219 BAA), and slider (90.5 – .189)
2022 – Four-seamer (98.0 – .240 BAA), Changeup (91.7 – .143 BAA), sinker (97.8 – .261 BAA), and slider (89.9 – .213)
2023 – Four-seamer (98.1 – .242 BAA), Changeup (91.1 – .279 BAA), sinker (97.7 – .243 BAA), and slider (90.0 – .227)

In 2023, Alcantara faded further in his strikeout rate (7.4 per nine and 19.8%) while allowing more home runs (1.1 per nine – 0.6 in 2022). He also walked a few more batters (2.3 per nine). His ground ball rate (52.9) remained high, with only a slight rise in his fly-ball rate (30.8).

Alcantara buried fantasy teams over his first 17 starts (3-7 with a 4.93 ER, 1.254 WHIP, and 89 strikeouts over 107.2 innings). His command was an issue in May (16 walks over 39.0 innings). He started to correct his damage over his next eight games (2.75 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts over 55.2 innings), but four contests later (13 runs, 38 baserunners, and five home runs over 26.1 innings), he blew out his right elbow (TJ surgery on October 6th in 2023).

Fantasy Outlook: Unfortunately, the only conclusion for his demise and injury was an increased workload from 2020 to 2022 (42.0, 205.2, and 228.2 innings). Alcantara will have 18 months of recovery when lights go on for the regular season in early April. The Marlins have a team option for him for 2027, so there is a chance he gets traded midseason. When at his best, Alcantara threw hard with command while working off four competitive pitches. If his walk rate is intact this spring with velocity, I expect him to pitch at least 180.0 innings this year with success. An SP4 with length to his starts should be an advantage. Not quite a luck in early February, but his profile and value should rise in spring training.

49 – Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (ADP – 164.6)

Pfaadt posted a 3.91 ERA with 30 strikeouts and five home runs over 25.1 innings at AAA in 2023. The Diamondbacks gave him five starts in May. Unfortunately, the surf was up in the desert, leading to eight balls landing in the seats (8.37 ERA, 1.648 WHIP, and 18 strikeouts over 23.2 innings). Over his next starts between AAA (7) and majors (1), Pfaadt had a 4.82 ERA, 1.446 WHIP, seven home runs, and 42 strikeouts over 37.1 innings. His season ended with improvement in Arizona (4.22 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, 13 home runs, and 73 strikeouts over 70.1 innings).

In his second year with the Diamondbacks, Pfaadt threw strikes, highlighted by his first pitch strikeout rate (70.6) and growth in his walk rate (2.1). He allowed too many home runs (24 – 1.2 per nine), with an uptick in his strikeout rate (9.2). His failure on the mound came against left-handed batters (.294 BAA) and at home (5.09 ERA and 1.313 WHIP).

His only successful month came in July (2-0 with a 2.31 ERA, 0.814 WHIP, one walk, and 21 strikeouts over 23.1 innings). Pfaadt had an ERA higher than 4.00 in April (4.63), June (4.50), August (6.04), and September (7.00). He allowed four runs or more in 13 of his 32 starts. His ERA was 3.74 over his first 20 starts with a winning WHIP (1.105), hiding his good in 2024. Pfaadt was a disaster over his final 12 matchups (6.60 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 61 innings with 74 strikeouts) despite having three double-digit strikeout games (eight runs, 12 baserunners, and two home runs over 19.2 innings with 33 strikeouts).

His average fastball (93.9) improved slightly. Pfaadt relied on four pitches – four-seamer (.262 BAA), sinker (.288 BAA), slider (.211 BAA with 13 home runs), and changeup (.247 BAA) while adding a low-volume curveball (.429 BAA).

Pitchers with 180+ IP and 180+ K in 2024 who currently have an ADP outside the Top 150 in 2025...

Brandon Pfaadt
Sean Manaea
Seth Lugo#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/sQuRjlBgmj
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) December 30, 2024

Fantasy Outlook: Pfaadt looks poised to be a much better arm in his third year in the majors. His 2024 resume is loaded with disaster starts, with hints of greatness. His command is ace-ready, but he must locate his pitches better within the strike zone and solve left-handed batters. Next Step: a sub-3.50 ERA with a push toward 15 wins and 200+ strikeouts. Giddy Up!

50 – Shane Baz, TB (ADP – 176.0)

In 2022, Baz had right elbow surgery in late March. He returned to the mound with Tampa on June 11th. After a poor showing (five runs and six baserunners over 2.1 innings), he gave fantasy teams hope over his next 22.1 innings (1.21 ERA with six walks and 26 strikeouts). Unfortunately, the Reds lit him up for seven runs, eight hits, and three home runs over 2.1 innings, leading to TJ surgery in September.

Baz started 2024 on the injured list with an oblique issue and a slow recovery from his elbow surgery. Tampa gave him 10 games in the minors, leading to weaker results (4.12 ERA, 1.576 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts over 39.1 innings) than expected. His major league debut came on July 5th. His arm responded well with the Rays, leading to a 3.06 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts over 79.1 innings.

His average fastball (95.6) was slightly below his previous innings in the majors. Baz created an edge with his three secondary pitches – slider (.161 BAA), curveball (.169 BAA), and changeup (.115 BAA). Batters hit .248 off his four-seamer (.209 against lefties).

Shane Baz, 99mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/lBUSgULY5V
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 28, 2024

Fantasy Outlook: The fun and excitement with Baz starts in 2025. He looks poised to give Tampa and fantasy teams meaningful innings, putting him on a path to post a sub-3.00 ERA and 175+ strikeouts with about 160.0 innings pitched.

46 – Taj Bradley, TB (ADP – 191.4)

47 – Robbie Ray, SF (ADP – 147.9)

48 – Sandy Alcantara, MIA (ADP – 157.30)

49 – Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (ADP – 164.6)

50 – Shane Baz, TB (ADP – 176.0)

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