Fantasy Sports

Fantasy Baseball: Week 10 Waiver Wire Starting Pitchers (Chris Paddack and Ryne Nelson)

The next big starting pitcher is Chase Burns, but the fantasy market will have to wait for him to be called up. Chris Paddack, Ryne Nelson, and Richard Fitts have a chance to help fantasy teams over the next few weeks.
Shawn Childs|
Minnesota Twins Starting Pitcher Chris Paddack
Minnesota Twins Starting Pitcher Chris Paddack | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

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Minnesota TwinsMilwaukee BrewersArizona DiamondbacksAtlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesBoston Red SoxCincinnati RedsDetroit TigersSt. Louis Cardinals

Chasing starting pitching on the waiver wire tends to invite negative results in ERA and WHIP, but the fantasy market must takes some risk to move up the startings in wins and strikeouts.

Starting Pitching

Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins

Heading to his next start this weekend, Paddack remains in the free-agent pool in over 50% of 12-team leagues. He opened the season with two poor showings (12 runs, 13 hits, three home runs, and six walks over 7.1 innings with four strikeouts, leading to him being cut in most leagues.

Paddack has been impressive over his last 50.0 innings (2.34 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts), lowering his ERA to 3.92. He’ll face TOR and TEX at home over his next two starts. His arm is viable in single-start weeks in 12- and 15-team formats.

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

Over his eight rehab starts, the Brewers have jockeyed Woodruff between High A and AAA. He opened May with three starts at Nashville, leading to a 2.38 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, and .279 BAA over 11.1 innings with 12 strikeouts. Milwaukee dropped him down in class in his last outing (no runs, five hits, no walks, and seven strikeouts) while tossing a season-high 71 pitches. Woodruff is on the verge of being back in the Brewers’ starting rotation.

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

The move back into Arizona’s starting rotation has worked out for Nelson over two starts. He gave up one run and eight baserunners over 11.2 innings with a win and six strikeouts. Zac Gallen doesn’t deserve a starting job based on his last four starts (19 runs, 27 hits, four home runs, and 11 walks over 21.1 innings with 17 strikeouts).

Nelson must either steal his job or leapfrog the struggling and injured Eduardo Rodriguez to secure a starting spot. His overall success makes him a reasonable double-start option in shallow leagues. Unfortunately, Nelson would face the Braves and Reds on the road next week, forcing the fantasy market to temper their expectations.

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

The season-ending injury to AJ Smith-Shawver pushes Elder back into the Braves' starting rotation. Over his last five starts in Atlanta, he has a 3.10 ERA, 1,10 WHIP, and 23 strikeouts over 29.0 innings. His arm didn’t fare as well in his recent two games at AAA (seven runs, 15 baserunners, and two home runs over 9.2 innings with nine strikeouts).

On the year, Elder has an 8.76 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in the minors, with better overall success with the Braves (4.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP). Next week, he should pitch in San Francisco vs. the Giants.

Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles

The fantasy storm chasers will gravitate toward Povich this week to get ahead of the free agent market if their fantasy team is short on strikeouts. He draws the Tigers and Angels at home next in two weeks. Povich brings injury and WHIP risk.

His arm was trending in a positive direction over two starts (three runs,12 baserunners, and 15 strikeouts over 10.2 innings), but the Cardinals ran him over in his last outing (five runs, 11 baserunners, and a home run over 4.2 innings with nine strikeouts). Povich falls into the risk/reward category until his command improves.

Richard Fitts, Boston Red Sox

The 15-team high-stakes market was well aware of Fitts’s status last week. Boston used him as a short-inning opener on Tuesday, leading to three shutout innings with two hits, one walk, and two strikeouts. He threw only 44 pitches, putting him about two games away from completing five innings of work.

A date with the Angels is viable on Monday, but Fitts has no chance at a win. His second start is in New York, so the best move would be a buy-and-hold this week in shallow formats while sitting him on the bench.

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

The Reds promoted Burns to AA in late April, and his right arm has shined over all six starts. He allowed only one run in each matchup, leading to a 1.86 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 29.0 innings. Over this span, Burns demonstrated elite command (three walks) with electric strikeouts (45), highlighted by his last start (one run, three hits, no walks, and 10 strikeouts over five innings). 

Sawyer Gibson-Long, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers placed Jackson Jobe on the injured list this week, potentially opening up a starting opportunity for Gibson-Long. He had external brace surgery last April on his right elbow, followed by a second operation on his hip in July.

He’s made five rehab appearances this season between High A, A, and AAA, leading to a 2.20 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 16 strikeouts over 16.1 innings. The Tigers stretched him out to five innings in his last outing (one run on a solo homer with no walks and five strikeouts), but Gibson-Long threw only 53 pitches. Over his first 73 games in the minors, he had a 4.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 405 strikeouts over 338.0 innings.

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

After an uptick start on May 4th with the Cardinals (no runs, one hit, one walk, and five strikeouts over 5.2 innings), McGreevy pitched much better over his four games at AAA. He posted a 1.64 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts over 22.0 innings while walking only four batters. At this point of the season, he doesn’t have a path to a starting job in the majors, making McGreevy only a minor league arm to follow.

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Shawn Childs
SHAWN CHILDS

With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.

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