Hobby Education: When An Autographed Was Signed Matters
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The playing-days premium is not a quirk. Basketball, football, and baseball all have it, and at far bigger numbers. A 1997-98 Upper Deck Game Jersey Autographed Michael Jordan numbered to 23 in a PSA 6 sold for $4.25 million in April of this year in a private sale through Goldin while he was still a Chicago Bull. A 2006 Upper Deck Trilogy Auto Focus Michael Jordan in a BGS 10 Pristine Black Label, Auto 10, made after he retired, recently sold on Fanatics Collect for $51,600. Other Jordan non-playing-day autos that have sold for between $25K and $810,000 (2006 Exquisite Collection Patches Michael Jordan PATCH 1/1 #5-J BGS 7 NRMT AUTO 10).
The card market also shows the other side of the rule. Era-based cards signed later can be worth a fortune, and post-career autographs can win when they are scarce. So what actually loses? The losers are post-career autographs in volume.
Basketball: Michael Jordan is the Ceiling and Floor
Jordan's market splits by when the card was made, not when it was signed. As we know, Upper Deck holds Jordan's exclusive, and he has signed only 23 copies of that card for a 2006 buyback. A fresh signature on a 1986 rookie card, with almost no supply, priced like a card with an auto from that era.
Football: Tom Brady Retirement Spikes
Tom Brady's top card is a playing-day auto, and it is the only NFL-licensed, numbered Brady rookie with his signature: the 2000 Playoff Contenders Championship Ticket, numbered to 100. This rookie card last sold in a PSA 8 for $854,000 last week, on October 17th.
When a player retires, it is a short-term event, and as we know, Brady, like Jordan, had a second retirement in February of 2023. When the news broke of Brady’s first retirement, his collectible sales jumped 198%, and rookie card sales soared 233%. The playing-day cards kept climbing anyway. Brady's 2000 Bowman Chrome rookie in PSA 10 cost you between $3,000 and $10,000 depending on when you purchased it, and closer to $30,000 after his 2021 Super Bowl win.
Baseball: The Hobby Sector that Produced the Era Card Signed Later
Topps turned the era card into a product line that was signed later. Topps Archives Signature Series buys back original Topps cards from a player's career, then has the retired player sign them on-card, number them, and encase them. This product holds one card that is numbered to 99 or less, and a box of 2025 in today’s market will cost you about $68.25.
Derek Jeter is a fine example of the volume risk. Jeter retired after the 2014 season, and Topps signed him to a multi-year autograph deal in the fall of 2016. His rookie cards began to surge ahead of his Hall of Fame induction in 2021, then they declined by more than 50% from their peak. His scarcest era autos, which include the 1992 Little Sun High School Prospects autographed card, remain one of baseball card collectors' prized grails.
Across Sports the Trend Remains the Same
The gap runs from 7x on a Ronaldinho-autographed card to more than 1,200x on a Michael Jordan autograph. When playing-day autos are scarce, the value can vary wildly. The Michael Jordan Upper Deck Game Jersey is a fine example because only 23 exist.
As a hobby, do we tend to overvalue non-playing-day autograph cards, or are those actual collectors who want cheaper entry points? Looking at the long-term prospects of investments in this hobby, it is easier to correlate specific cards with specific events or particular seasons when it comes to purchasing autographed cards - the decision is yours to make.
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Paulo runs The 90: A Soccer Cards Podcast and collector intelligence brand built on data. He also founded the site www.ultimate90.com. His background is in marketing, event, trade show, and conference production. Some of his favorite athletes to collect include Tony Gwynn, Ted Williams, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Larry Bird.