Do Serial Numbers Really Affect Sports Card Values?
Something that's always on the mind of sports card collectors: How rare is my card? While this question is important when determining long-term card values, it’s a much more nuanced discussion than many consider. Here are just a few reasons why.
1. The Set Comes First
A Panini Donruss Optic Pink Luka Doncic rookie card, numbered to just 25 copies, recently sold for $3,240 as a BGS Pristine 10. So why, then, does his Black Velocity rookie card from the same set, numbered to 39 copies, consistently sell for more in any grade? The answer is that the Optic Black Velocity has become more beloved than the Pink parallel. Rarity will always take a backseat to desirability.
2. Numbering Outliers
Serial numbers aren’t created equal. Sticking with the Luka Doncic theme, his rookie Red Prizm, serial numbered to 299, recently sold on eBay for $3,550 in a PSA 10. However, it sold for over $12,000 in June of this year. The reason for this significant price difference is that the serial number on that particular card matches Luka’s jersey number - 77 - and is numbered 077/299. Collectors are often willing to pay a premium for a player's jersey/serial number match. In some cases, collectors will even pay extra for the first or last card printed. As a result, copies 001/299 and 299/299 would likely see a premium as well.
3. Print Runs As A Whole
Some cards may be more valuable than other serial-numbered ones, even without bearing a serial number. This is because many collectors primarily care about the print run as a whole - not the stamped number on the back of the card. The White Sparkle Prizm is a great example of an unnumbered SSP (Super Short Print) card, with rumors suggesting there are around 25 copies per player. Tyrese Maxey's White Sparkle Prizm from his rookie year last sold for $3,600, while his Mojo Prizm from the same year and grade last sold for $2,750, despite being serial-numbered to 25 copies. It’s worth noting that some collectors do prefer the stamped number. However, in general, don’t be surprised if you see an interesting-looking unnumbered card sell for more than its serial-numbered counterpart.
The first year of Prizm White Sparkle. Obviously I would like it to be centered. But I’m just happy to have this Steph Curry card.
— Adam Gray (@the27guy) August 25, 2024
Approximately 20-25 printed total. First year. 2015 White Sparkle is probably my favorite Prizm set not from 2012. pic.twitter.com/05jG5rEAKM
It can't be emphasized enough how important it is to collect what you enjoy. However, if you're hoarding numbered cards in the hopes that they’ll make you rich one day, it’s important to consider these points.
Jason is a dedicated basketball card collector who recently transitioned into writing and educating others about the sports card industry. Find him on Instagram @jeancardz