Is The Hobby Sleeping on Chet Holmgren?
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When it comes to NBA Basketball and The Hobby, Chet Holmgren is a curious case. On the one hand, fans and collectors are looking at a former top-of-class high school recruit, who was drafted second overall in the draft, finished second in Rookie of the Year voting to Victor Wembanyama in 2024, and now has emerged as a key piece on basketball's best team. Yet, Holmgren's card market has not particularly been in keeping with other young stars of the game, some of whom have far less on their resume. So, what is holding collectors back from backing the Oklahoma City Thunder big, as he looks poised to claim a championship and perhaps become an essential part of a dynasty?
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To begin with, there's some history that likely gives collectors pause. Across the board, it can be harder to trust the long-term growth and success of big men, as they are more prone to injury. Their range of outcomes is often more extreme. In truth, joint, muscle, knee, and foot issues have derailed many a talented big man in the sport of basketball.
When it comes to Chet Holmgren in particular, this is almost certainly playing a role in The Hobby. Holmgren missed the entire 2022-23 season after suffering a Lisfranc injury in his foot. In a sense, Holmgren was fortunate, in that he was drafted by a great Thunder organization, that also was patient in its greater rebuild. This afforded Holmgren the chance to take time returning to health, and try to prevent the sort of chronic injury that can hamper the success of NBA bigs.
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But, after playing 82 games last season, Holmgren was injured once again this year, and was limited to only 32 regular season games, as the dominant Thunder was again able to remain patient. But for collectors, it's easy to be wary considering Holmgren has missed more than half of his three-year career so far.
Yet, what about when Holmgren does play? He's already one of the league's most impactful defenders, and his overall game flashes truly elite potential. He's played in 16 playoff games this season, and is averaging 16.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 2 Blocks per game - in only 29.6 Minutes per game. Moreover, he and his Thunder teammates have separated themselves from the rest of the league. The general consensus is the Finals is theirs to lose, and that a title in June could set Oklahoma City Thunder up for an era of dominance. Yet, Card Ladder lists Holmgren's All-Time Rate of Growth at over -50%.
Holmgren is an interesting case study in just how much shine multiple teammates on a great team can get. While no one doubts the Splash Brothers (Steph Curry and Klay Thompson) helped each other reach great heights, Thompson's card market is not in the same stratosphere as Steph. Scottie Pippen and Dennis Rodman have clearly been picked up over the years in association to the great Jordan Bulls teams (though Rodman's overall pop culture profile also plays a role). With so much attention given to 2025 NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, how much room in The Hobby is there for a star-level complimentary piece like Holmgren? Even with Holmgren showing out in the Western Conference Finals destruction of the Minnesota Timberwolves, his Card Ladder Rate of Growth has risen only 2.92% over the last two weeks.
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This question is further complicated by the fact that despite some great play, great numbers, and great potential for this 23-year old, Holmgren's Thunder are so good he's not even the second option. That distinction belongs to Jalen Williams. If Holmgren stays healthy and develops further, this distinction may lessen, but when it comes to cards and The Hobby, is there only so much oxygen to go around, even when dealing with a Super Team? Or, once Holmgren is crowned a champion at such a young age, on a team with such long-term potential, will The Hobby start to move in a more aggressive fashion on Chet Holmgren?
Michael Terry is a writer based in Brooklyn. He specializes in sports, culture, and collecting. His work has appeared at Topps RIPPED, ESPN, Grantland, Vice Sports, and more.
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