Crimson Corner: Can a Two-Loss Alabama Still Make the College Football Playoff?

It's never happened before in the history of the College Football Playoff.

Since the CFP's inception in 2014, no two-loss team has ever been able to squeeze its way into the top four teams. However, this season has proven to be unlike any other with a plethora of two-loss programs that would typically either be undefeated or have just one loss.

In the current CFP rankings, four of the top six teams in the country already have one loss. No. 1 Georgia and No. 4 Cincinnati remain untarnished, but No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Alabama, No. 5 Oklahoma State and No. 6 Notre Dame all have one loss. From there, the next 10 teams all have a record of 10-2.

When taking a look at the CFP heading into Championship Weekend, Alabama fans are wondering if a close loss to Georgia — the favorite to win the national title for the majority of the season — would be enough to keep the Crimson Tide in the top four. Unfortunately, it's not as simple as keeping the game close.

Examining the other top six teams, it becomes more complicated for Alabama. Notre Dame is the easiest to assume that it will not make the playoff. Not only do the Fighting Irish not have a conference championship game to play in, but the sudden departure of head coach Brian Kelly left the program in considerable upheaval. CFP Selection Committee Chair Gary Barta said himself last Tuesday that a coaching departure will have an impact on the committee's rankings, and with Notre Dame already being sixth, a jump up into the top four doesn't seem likely.

But what about the other three two-loss teams?

Michigan will make the CFP should it win over Iowa this weekend. An 11-point favorite over the Hawkeyes, it seems almost certain that the Wolverines are the second-most likely team to make the playoff. However, Iowa's defense has been especially good at forcing turnovers this season. With each loss in the top six, Alabama's chances of surviving improve, starting with Michigan. However, with the Wolverines already being ranked ahead of the Crimson Tide, their loss is not as important as the teams behind it.

Should Alabama lose, it will be crucial that both Cincinnati and Oklahoma State fall with it. It would not be too far-fetched to assume that, if all three teams lost, Notre Dame would slip by into the top four. That would leave one spot remaining, and Alabama would most likely take that spot. Heck, Alabama is already ranked ahead of those teams and barring and incredibly lopsided loss to Georgia, it would seem probable that the Crimson Tide would take the No. 4 spot.

Both the Bearcats and the Cowboys have their hands full this weekend. Cincinnati will face an 11-1 Houston program that hasn't lost since its season opener against Texas Tech. The Cougars have been able to put up a lot of points this season — granted, against the second-easiest schedule in all of college football according to the official NCAA metrics — and its defense is highly capable. Cincinnati will likely win a close one, but a loss certainly isn't off the table.

For the Cowboys, they will have to face a solid 10-2 Baylor team. The two teams played each other earlier this season, with the Cowboys coming out on top 24-14. As history has shown, it's very difficult to beat a team twice in the same season, and this game is no exception. With Baylor's offense humming and its defensive pressure remaining consistent, and upset could potentially happen. That being said, Oklahoma State is still the favorite to win this one.

So what has to happen should Alabama lose a close game to Georgia in order for it to make the CFP? Well, there are several scenarios that could play out for the Crimson Tide.

First and foremost, Alabama will have to maintain a close game against Georgia. That much is certain. Should the Crimson Tide get blown out by the Bulldogs, then their chances drop to almost zero.

For the best possible playoff scenario for Alabama, the trio of Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State would all lose. That's the most unlikely of scenarios for the Crimson Tide, though. Another option would be for Michigan to lose, but it would likely have to be in lopsided fashion for a two-loss Alabama team to remain higher-ranked than the Wolverines.

If Oklahoma State and Cincinnati both lost and Michigan won, Alabama's chances still remain relatively high. Notre Dame would likely jump to No. 4, with the Crimson Tide holding at No. 3 due to the committee not wanting an Alabama/Georgia rematch in the first round of the playoff.

Should just one team lose, the greatest benefit for Alabama would obviously be Michigan. However, the more likely loss would be Cincinnati. Should the Bearcats be the only team that loses, the most likely scenario would be Oklahoma State jumping up to No. 3 and Notre Dame taking that No. 4 spot. There would be a tiny chance that the Crimson Tide could still take No. 4 due to the Brian Kelly situation, but that seems like a shot in the dark.

In conclusion, there is no clear-cut scenario that needs to play out for a two-loss Alabama team to make it to the CFP. A combination of outcomes would greatly benefit Alabama should it fall to Georgia. That being said, the best way for Alabama to make it to the CFP is to simply win. If the Crimson Tide wins, then they're essentially guaranteed a spot.

Alabama fans should certainly be rooting for Iowa, Houston and Baylor this weekend, though.