What Alabama Needs for a Shot at the College Football Playoff: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The final word on the Crimson Tide's latest trip to Death Valley: LSU 32, Alabama 31 in Overtime.

Author:
Christopher Walsh
Publish date:
Nov 6, 2022 12:00 PM EST

In this story:

Is the Alabama Crimson Tide completely out of the national title picture? No.

It needs to win and get some serious help, though.

That's the bad news for Crimson Tide fans.

The good news is that there's still a pretty clear path to making the College Football Playoff, and it doesn't seem outlandish. It's just that a lot of things have to fall the right way.

First off, LSU needs to lose another game.

By beating Alabama 32-31 in overtime, the Tigers became the leading challenger to have the first two-loss team make the College Football Playoff. The tricky thing, though, is that the Tigers still have to win out.

Their remaining regular-season schedule is at Arkansas (which lost to Liberty on Saturday), UAB and reeling Texas A&M. But then LSU has to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

If that happens, Alabama's out. Period.

Should Georgia win, though, the door is still open a little.

Here's what else the Crimson Tide needs to happen to still have a shot.

1) Tennessee to lose again. Let's assume Georgia is in. The chances of the selection committee taking three teams from the same conference are pretty slim unless it really has no choice. The Volunteers have Missouri, at South Carolina and Vanderbilt remaining. Otherwise they stay ahead of Alabama in the rankings no matter what.

2) Between Michigan and Ohio State, one needs to fall by the wayside. It may not take two losses, a good thumping could be enough considering that Alabama's two losses were by a combined four points.

Michigan: Nebraska, Illinois, at Ohio State
Ohio State: Indiana, at Maryland, Michigan

3) TCU has to lose at least once. The Horned Frogs could be No. 3 in this week's CFP rankings, which will put them squarely in the spotlight. They don't have a favorable schedule, though: at Texas, at Baylor and Iowa State, plus then a potential Big 12 Championship Game.

4) The Pac-12 is sort of the wild card/great unknown. Oregon, USC and UCLA were ranked 8-10 heading into this past weekend, and all 8-1. It would help Alabama considerably if all three took another loss. Utah (7-2) could be the big spoiler.

Oregon: Washington, Utah, at Oregon State
USC: Colorado, at UCLA, Notre Dame
UCLA: Arizona, USC, at Cal

5) A team from the ACC can't get hot. Neither Clemson and North Carolina has been overly impressive, and both had lopsided losses against Notre Dame. Clemson has Louisville, Miami and South Carolina left to play, and UNC is at Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and North Carolina State before a possible meeting in the ACC Championship Game.

The Tigers have three wins against ranked opponents, the Tar Heels have none. A one-loss Clemson with a conference title might trump the Crimson Tide.

For now, Alabama needs to focus on beating Ole Miss on Saturday. For the first time since 2002 (and otherwise you have to go back to 1970), the Rebels could be ranked higher than the Crimson Tide when they play.

Player of the Game: Running back Jahmyr Gibbs led Alabama in rushing (15 carries for 99 yards) and added eight receptions for 64 yards. His 162 all-purpose yards gave him an even 1,300 for the season.

Play of the Game: Alabama may have gotten away with a hold on the play, but junior quarterback Bryce Young's 41-yard touchdown pass to sophomore wide receiver Ja'Corey Brooks was a pretty amazing play.

Statistic of the Game: Alabama out-gained LSU 465-367, ran more offensive plays (81-66), had more sacks (6-2) and tackles for a loss (11-4), yet still lost.

The Good

• Paced by running back Jase McClellan, Alabama had 164 yards after the catch, exactly half of its 328 receiving yards. In comparison, LSU had 77 yards after the catch.

• It's probably not the best thing that Alabama's top two leading tacklers were safeties, but DeMarcco Hellams and Brian Branch combined to make 16 solo stops.

• We know it's a reach, but Alabama has inadvertently raised $350,000 for the SEC Post-Graduate Scholarship Fund. LSU will be fined another $250,000 for fans rushing the field, its fourth offense and second in under a month (Ole Miss, Oct. 22). Tennessee was recently fined $100,000 for its second offense, when fans stormed the field and tore down the goalposts following the 52-49 victory at Neyland Stadium.

The Bad

• The interception in the end zone was the only turnover, and killed an early chance to take the crowd out of the game. For the season, the Crimson Tide has a minus-four turnover margin, with 12 lost and just eight gained.

• For the first time this season, Young completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes (25 of 51). The only other time he was under 50 percent as a starter was at Auburn last year, when he was 25 for 51 and the Crimson Tide won in overtime.

• Nine penalties for 92 yards. Five were were against the defense including two personal fouls (Henry To'oTo'o and Dallas Turner) and three pass-interference calls (Eli Ricks twice, Branch).

The Ugly

• We're just going to leave this here, and also note that the two-point conversion was eerily similar to some other plays we've seen in the past that were generally considered borderline legal.

5 Things That We Noticed

1) Alabama and LSU have gone to overtime five times since Nick Saban took over the Crimson Tide in 2007 (2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2022). UA has had just 14 overtime games in its history. Previously, the last overtime loss was 11 years ago to the day, the Game of the Century 9-6 loss to LSU at home on Nov. 5, 2011. Of course, the Crimson Tide won the rematch in the national championship game.

2) Alabama went 76 yards on its opening possession of the game, and 15 plays for 55 yards on its first drive of the second half, and only scored three points. The former ended with an interception in the end zone, and the latter was the longest possession of the season in terms of number of plays.

3) The guy who kept pinning Alabama down deep in its own territory was Jay Bramblett, the former punter and quarterback at Hillcrest High School in Tuscaloosa. He had six punts average 41.8 yards with three inside the 20-yard line for LSU.

4) Young targeted Brooks 17 times and completed seven for 97 yards. He targeted Gibbs more times (12) than the rest of the receiving corps (11), which combined to have four receptions for 38 yards.

5) The loss was Saban's ninth since 2008 at Alabama, compared to 46 wins, for a winning percentage of .836. Meanwhile, Kelly has coached 17 consecutive wins in November, the last loss coming at Stanford on Nov. 25, 2017.