Transfer Dominick Welch Fills a Need for Alabama Basketball
When the average fan thinks of Alabama basketball under head coach Nate Oats, the three-point shot should immediately come to mind.
Oats revolutionized an offense that had much slower tendencies under previous coaches Avery Johnson and Anthony Grant, and turned the Crimson Tide into one of the highest volume-shooting teams in America during his short three years at the helm.
In 2021-22, Alabama basketball fell short of expectations largely due to a widespread inconsistency shooting the basketball. The Crimson Tide ranked eighth in the country in three-point shots attempted, but just 307th in overall three-point percentage.
Alabama's top shooter percentage-wise a year ago was Keon Ellis at 36.6 percent, followed by Jaden Shackelford at 35.1 percent. Both of those players have since moved on to the next chapter in their basketball careers. With their departures, Oats was tasked with finding new shooters to add some consistency on the perimeter for his 2022-23 team.
Enter Dominick Welch.
The graduate transfer from St. Bonaventure announced his decision to come to Tuscaloosa back in May, and he brings with him a 37.4 percent career shooting clip from three.
"[Welch] is someone who is going to come in and earn his playing time. He's a four-year starter and has had a lot of success both from a team and an individual standpoint," Oats said. "He has impacted winning in a big way, helping St. Bonaventure to 76 wins in the last four years which shows that he cares about doing what needs to be done to help his team win."
Welch has nice size for a guard at 6 foot 5 and 205 pounds, and hails originally from Buffalo, N.Y., where Oats and assistant coach Bryan Hodgson coached before they came to Alabama.
Last season with the Bonnies, Welch averaged 12.3 points per game to go along with six rebounds, and shot just above the 37 percent mark from distance on the season.
St. Bonaventure played a much different style of basketball compared to Alabama in 2021-22. The Crimson Tide ranked 82nd with 35 percent of its offense coming from three-pointers according to KenPom, while St. Bonaventure ranked 303rd at only 26 percent.
While the teams may have played contrasting styles, Welch himself has an offensive game that should mesh seamlessly with how Oats loves to run. Last season, 96 percent of Alabama's possessions ended in a three-point shot or a layup according to the analytics service Shot Quality. Welch had a 92 percent rate of similar possessions himself, so he will likely not take much adjusting to become acclimated to the Crimson Tide style.
Welch was also used in ways that Oats has utilized in the past, with screens and cutting actions freeing up his shooters for catch-and-shoot looks.
Alabama fans will remember the first play, being Shackelford's go-ahead three-pointer to put the Crimson Tide ahead against Houston last December. In that play, Noah Gurley set a down screen that Shackelford curled off of to get him open for the shot.
In the clip of Welch facing Virginia Tech, he curled off a screen of his own and showcased his ability to set his feet quickly before rising up and knocking the shot down. Welch's shot was arguably more impressive than Shackelford's as well as his defender stayed glued to his hip throughout the entire play, but it did not have any influence on his shot motion.
Here, Welch showed his ability to read his defender as his big man sets a screen in the middle of the lane and the defender attempted to jump under the screen and anticipate the curl. However, instead of curling, Welch faded off the screen to the open space on the wing, and once again was not disrupted by the late closeout.
The two plays above showed that Welch also has the ability to create his own shot if drawn-up plays are busted or guarded well. In both cases, Welch had a relatively open three-point looks but choose to execute a pump fake to get his defender in the air. In both instances he used a dribble to reset his shot, moving to his left against Oklahoma and his right against George Mason. He did not favor one side to reset to, which limited his predictability to defenses.
This play against Xavier showed that Welch's shot was not affected even by multiple quick movements before his release. Coming off the screen, Welch curled and stopped on a dime when he caught the ball as he felt his defender closing in on him. He pump faked and lost his balance, the defender bit, and he pivoted to reset before pump faking again and drillied the shot.
Welch's ability to knock down shots both off the catch and the dribble makes him a unique shooting threat that always keeps defenders on their toes as they have no idea when or how he is going to pull up for the shot.
In addition to his shooting prowess, Welch also brings perhaps the most experience of any player on Alabama's roster. He played at St. Bonaventure for four years, and started a multitude of games every season.
Welch ranks first in career games started with 105, followed closely by fifth-year senior Noah Gurley with 97. There’s a huge drop off after Gurley, with Mark Sears at 40 and Jahvon Quinerly at 34.
It signifies that this will be a young Alabama team with only two seniors and the majority of the roster being freshmen and sophomores. Welch's experience and leadership will be leaned upon, especially as the young players endure a very difficult non-conference schedule to begin the season.
Welch announced earlier this month that he will wear No. 10 this season in honor of the 10 victims that lost their lives in a deadly shooting in his hometown of Buffalo.
