Why Alabama Baseball Could Really Host a Regional: All Things CW

It isn't just wishful thinking any more, the Crimson Tide is on the cusp of bringing NCAA Tournament games back to Sewell-Thomas Stadium for the first time since 2006.

You may have noticed on Wednesday that D1Baseball's projections for the upcoming 2023 NCAA tournament had the Alabama Crimson Tide as the second seed in the Durham Regional, hosted by No. 15 Duke. 

Simple math tells you that with 16 regionals for the field of 64, the second team in the No. 15 regional is somewhere around No. 18 overall. That's slightly better than where the website had Alabama in its weekly rankings, No. 17. But take note of where Baseball America also had the Crimson Tide in its latest projections despite Alabama not being in its latest rankings: second seed in the Durham Regional hosted by No. 15 Duke.

Polls have a tendency to lag behind a little, so one can forgive voters for not catching on to the Crimson Tide's late-season surge yet. However, hosting a regional is suddenly more than a real possibility, something Alabama has done only five times in its history (all under Jim Wells), and not since 2006 (following 1996, 1997, 1999 and 2002).  

There are three reasons why it's probably closer to becoming reality than most people realize. 

1) Strength of schedule

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Alabama (35-17) is No. 11 in RPI, with six other Southeastern Conference teams ahead of it. Even though the Crimson Tide will finish the regular season with a three-game home set this weekend against the SEC team with the worst RPI, Ole Miss at No. 79, the Rebels are still the reigning national champions.

After that, Alabama only has games against league foes at the SEC Tournament, which could number anywhere from one with an opening-round loss, or up to six games if it can reach the double-elimination portion in Hoover next week. 

Regardless, even if it bombs and plays horribly from here on out, Alabama will have an impressive RPI. If it plays well we're easily talking top 10, which would be very difficult for the NCAA tournament selection committee to overlook.  

2) The 2022 NCAA Tournament

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At this point a year ago, Ole Miss didn't know it was going to make the SEC Tournament, never mind go on and win the College World Series. Despite getting swept by Alabama, finishing below .500 in league play, and going one-and-out in the SEC Tournament, it was the last team into the field of 64.

Why? Strength of schedule and meaningful wins. Granted, Army athletic director Mike Buddie is no longer the chairman, but most of the selection committee is the same as in 2022 and it was rewarded for its efforts by the Rebels' remarkable run.

After being 39th in the final NCAA RPI power rankings, Ole Miss ended up being the last team standing in Omaha.  

3) Non-conference wins

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The Crimson Tide is 13-14 in SEC play this season, and 5-10 against ranked teams (all against league opponents), which on face value doesn't look the greatest. However, numerous things stand out upon further examination:

• Only LSU managed to sweep it in a three-game series, when the Tigers were No. 1 and playing at home.

• Alabama is 22-3 in non-conference play, with two of the three setbacks to Columbia back in March, and the other in extra innings at UAB.

• Against non-conference opponents with an RPI in the top 100, Alabama is 5-0.

That last one may be what lands a regional for the Crimson Tide. The breakdown is two wins against No. 88 Samford, two against No. 35 Troy, and one against No. 28 Southern Miss. Consequently, Alabama is 18-14 against teams with a top 100 RPI, with at minimum four more games left to play before selection day.  

We quote Baseball America last year as to the importance of that statistic ... "over the last five NCAA Tournaments, teams that received at-large bids played an average of 33.3 games against top-100 competition, with a median of 35. If you break out non-conference competition specifically, last year’s at-large teams played an average of 12 non-conference games against top-100 competition."

Alabama's schedule does meet the necessary eye test.

Finally, it needs to be noted that the new selection committee chairman is Auburn athletic director John Cohen, formerly of Mississippi State. While yes, that will cause some Crimson Tide fans to moan, remember that he was hired to be the Bulldogs' baseball coach by some guy named Greg Byrne (and was also Brad Bohannon's boss at Kentucky.) 

But the real reason we're pointing out Cohen is the following statement he made to the Clarion Ledger last year when Ole Miss got into the tournament and his school, Mississippi State, did not as the reigning national champions. 

“If you lean over to me and say, ‘John, can Ole Miss get to Omaha?’… I would have said yes,” Cohen said. “I believe that Alabama and Kentucky ... could have gotten to the College World Series. That's how good our league is."

D1Baseball has Arkansas, Florida, LSU and Vanderbilt as solid top-eight teams and set to hold regionals and super regionals should they advance, with Kentucky and South Carolina in the next tier. Alabama, Tennessee (No. 23 RPI) and Auburn (No. 20 RPI) are all second seeds, but it called its recent 9-16 projections to host regionals a "revolving door." For the most part, Baseball America seems to concur. 

But after going 5-2 after Bohannon's firing, including series wins against then-No. 5 Vanderbilt and at Texas A&M, and a neutral-site victory versus Troy, and the Alabama is certainly in the mix. 

“There's great college baseball in the four corners and in the central part of this country," Cohen also said last year. "There's great baseball everywhere. But I will say this: in an SEC season, those 10 weekends are like playing 10 super regionals in a row.”

SEE ALSO: Alabama Baseball Makes Statement in Series Win Over Texas A&M