Texas A&M Upset Alabama in 2021. Will the Aggies Do It Again?
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — This isn't going to be your old-school Alabama-Texas A&M game.
Since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012, they and the Crimson Tide have averaged a total of 63.8 total points per game in 11 contests against each other.
Don't expect a game like that on Saturday afternoon in College Station.
The bad news for No. 11 Alabama? Texas A&M (4-1, 2-0 SEC) has a very similar defensive line to Texas — which tormented the Crimson Tide's rushing attack and pass protection. This season, Alabama (4-1, 2-0 SEC) has the second-worst protection rate in all of college football.
Texas A&M is No. 1 nationally in sack percentage.
The good news for Alabama? The Aggies have been far from perfect on offense themselves and have been more liable to turning it over than the Crimson Tide.
The stakes in this clash are of the utmost importance. When the ball is kicked off, one of two things will happen — Alabama wins and emerges as a national championship contender again or Texas A&M wins and sends the Crimson Tide plummeting.
Alabama eliminated in Week 6? When's the last time that happened? Texas A&M in the driver's seat for a berth in the SEC championship? That's even more unheard of — the Aggies have never played for an SEC crown since joining the conference.
These two schools have become rivals on the field because of things that have happened off the field. Everyone knows about the past conflict between Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban. Texas A&M wide receiver Ainias Smith got things started this time around when he gave his thoughts on Nick Saban earlier this week.
Saban coached Smith's brother, Maurice, at Alabama from 2013-2015.
"I feel like this game is always more personal, every time I play them," Smith said Monday. "I don’t know, it’s just what had happened, that’s in the past now, not able to control it, but every time I do look on that sideline I do think about, what had happened. I definitely [am] thinking about it, so I mean, it’s more personal for sure."
"I know what Nick Saban wants, and we’re gonna mess that up," Smith said. "So if them boys don’t [have any] momentum for real, we’re gonna have to take that away immediately."
The Crimson Tide finds itself in a familiar position as two years ago. The Aggies will be at the mercy of Max Johnson, their backup quarterback. Texas A&M defeated Alabama behind the arm of backup Zach Calzada in 2021.
Amidst the change, Saban is prepared for the Aggies to run their normal offensive scheme behind Fisher and offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. Johnson started on several occasions for LSU from 2020-2021. He's now comfortable in his second year with Texas A&M.
"He’s a good player, he’s got a lot of experience, he’s smart, he makes good decisions — he’s been in the system with Jimbo for a long time, so he’s a veteran player," Saban said on Wednesday. "He’s played well against us in the past. We have a lot of respect for him. I don’t really see a lot of a difference in their ability to be productive and use their weapons they have to run the ball effectively as well as do a good job of passing it."
Numbers and football don't always coexist. But the numbers are alarming for the Crimson Tide. Alabama opened as a 3.5-point favorite. That number is down to one.
CFBGraphs dug into the numbers and determined that the Aggies are actually likely to win the game, with the analytics pointing to an approximate 25-21 score — in favor of Texas A&M.
For those that have been watching Saban and the Crimson Tide for a long time, all of these things usually point to an Alabama win. The Crimson Tide is 35-1 on the road against unranked teams since 2008. That one loss? I think you know.
The Aggies have been searching for a win of this magnitude since ... the game two years ago. The Crimson Tide is looking to prove for the third straight week that it is still a player in college football this season and beyond.
They say everything is bigger in Texas. On Saturday afternoon, The Lone Star State will play host to the two biggest college football games of the week.
For Alabama and Texas A&M, there's no game bigger than the one at Kyle Field with control of the SEC West on the line.
