Three Reasons Arizona State Beats Baylor, Three Ways Arizona State Loses

When Kenny Dillingham and Dave Aranda meet on the football field, the matchup is destined to come down to the wire.

The first installment of the two Big 12 coaches came in 2019, when Dillingham was with Auburn as their offensive coordinator/QB coach, while Aranda was with LSU as their defensive coordinator/linebacker coach.

No. 2 LSU escaped No. 9 Auburn that night, coming up on exactly seven years ago. Aranda's defense trumped Dillingham's offense, 23-20.

Fast forward 2,156 days, and the two were involved in another conference clash. This time, as head coaches at Arizona State and Baylor.

Dillingham returned the favor on a game-winning field goal, as ASU took the first conference matchup between the two programs, 27-24 in Waco.

Each contest has been decided by three points, and now, it's time for the rubber match. In a toss-up ballgame, what are the keys to an ASU victory? And what problems will leave the Devils with a loss?

Arizona State Wins If:

The Run Game Returns

It hasn't been the usual for ASU's run game so far in 2026. After two seasons with NFL-bound tailbacks in Raleek Brown (2025) and Cam Skattebo (2024), the Sun Devils are still awaiting a running back breakout.

ASU currently averages 4.64 yards per carry, their lowest total since 2023, when they went 3-9. Their consistent 190 yards or more per game average from the last two seasons has dropped to 165 through three games.

An improvement in running the ball will not only help ASU move the chains, especially in a game where field position will be vital, but it will also alleviate some pressure on a passing game that is still trying to find consistency.

Defense Stays Hot With Turnovers

It was a treasure trove of turnovers for ASU in London. Can they replicate that success back at home?

Three turnovers vs. Kansas is nothing to scoff at, but in our Questions of the Week, some important statistics stick out for ASU. The Sun Devils are third in the Big 12 in points allowed per game, fourth in rushing yards allowed, and third-to-last in sacks.

However, ASU has delivered in pass defense, allowing an average of 161.3 passing yards per game, the second-lowest in the conference.

For Baylor, they roll with a pass-heavy offense, sitting fourth in passing yards in the conference.

Passing more means more opportunities for interceptions, as exhibited in Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway's game log.

Lagway has just started two games this season due to injury, but he has thrown an interception in each contest. He threw 14 interceptions at Florida in 2025, including three multi-interception games.

If ASU can force Lagway into some bad decisions, it could very well be the deciding factor.

Omarion Miller Scores A Touchdown

In the book of questions for ASU's offense, Omarion Miller has his own chapter.

There has been much discussion over his slow start to his Sun Devil career. Since his eight-catch, 102-yard night with a touchdown against Morgan State, the Colorado transfer has only 12 catches for 47 yards in two games combined.

Kenny Dillingham isn't blind to the fact that Miller hasn't found his stride yet in Tempe. He would go on to shoulder the blame for the receiver's usage over the bye week, perhaps going back to the drawing board on offense against Baylor.

If the breakout game comes to fruition, Miller could help the Devils' offense put together the performance they've been looking for.

Arizona State Loses If:

Field Position Plagues The Offense

You cannot talk about Saturday night's clash without mentioning Baylor punter Palmer Williams.

Williams comes to Tempe with quite the resume on special teams, and quite the boot to back it up. His punting ability can flip the field, and flip a game, in an instant.

For ASU, with enough issues on offense already, being pinned inside the 15, 10, or even five-yard line could spell trouble for their production.

If Williams has a night once again, don't be surprised if the Sun Devil offense never gets off the ground.

Cutter Boley Doesn't Find His Downfield Rhythm

The London rain is gone. ASU QB Cutter Boley is going to have to throw the ball downfield against Baylor.

Boley finished 11-for-23 for 95 yards against Kansas, catching some grace from Dillingham based on his play calling, along with some slack from the media for the sloppy conditions in England.

However, the Kansas victory still included some missed throws and mistakes from Boley that he should have executed, rain or not.

Baylor's defense is respectable in the passing game, allowing 209 passing yards per game so far. The Bears already have four interceptions and have only allowed two passing touchdowns through four games, tied for the lowest total in the Big 12.

Can Boley find his footing with a breakout game? Or will old habits take over? Boley had four multi-interception games with Kentucky in 2025. If he does anything similar against Baylor, ASU will likely have no chance.

A Self-Inflicted Mistake Proves Costly

It's not a shocking revelation: if you make mistakes, you will not succeed.

ASU found this out the hard way in College Station, with a first-half muffed punt and a total offensive collapse in the second half costing the Devils any chance of an upset win.

Dillingham's team almost had a similar fate in London when they allowed a first-half punt-return touchdown to Kansas. It took a 100-yard, second-half opening kickoff return touchdown by Jared Hamilton to truly negate the special teams snafu.

Where could mistakes come from against Baylor? There are many sources. Boley's downfield/turnover potential, the special teams battle, or even a failed attempt at some trickery, such as ASU's unsuccessful fake punt against Texas A&M.

Colorado proved that mistakes will cost you against a team like Baylor in a 23-13 loss to the Bears. If ASU makes similar errors, they might end up with the same outcome.

How to Watch Arizona State vs. Baylor

Who: Arizona State vs. Baylor
When: Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 p.m. AZ/10:30 p.m. EST
Where: Mountain America Stadium (53,599) in Tempe, Arizona.
TV/Streaming: ESPN
TV announcers: Roy Philpott (play-by-play), Brock Osweiler (analyst).

The Sun Devil Radio Network broadcast will air on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM. Tim Healey will handle play-by-play alongside former Arizona State quarterback Jeff Van Raaphorst, with Kevin Turner reporting from the sideline.

Add us as a preferred source on Google