What The Betting Markets Are Saying About Arizona State's Chances Vs. Kansas

Arizona State's Big 12 Conference opener against Kansas in London is projected to be a very competitive game by the experts who make the betting lines.

Given how good oddsmakers have gotten, seeing how they view a matchup based on the menu they offer can provide insight far beyond what you might consume from ordinary analysts and coach/player press conferences.

Let's take a look at how the bookies have priced Saturday's game. All odds provided by DraftKings.

Pointspread: Arizona State -5.5

Being favored by nearly a touchdown means the Sun Devils are clearly considered the better team in this matchup. But on the flipside, not being a full TD favorite shows there's a little bit of doubt in the markets about how advanced Kenny Dillingham's offense is at this point.

The prevailing wisdom in college football oddsmaking is that home field accounts for about three points-worth of pointspread value. This game is not only at a neutral site, but it's on foreign soil. But if it were in Tempe, the Sun Devils would certainly be more than a touchdown favorite.

We think the best idea is to consider this a road game. Sure, there likely won't be a hostile crowd for ASU to deal with, but all the travel and new setting might as well make it an away situation.

Last season the Sun Devils were pretty solid on the Big 12 Conference road, posting wins over Baylor, Iowa State and Colorado. But this roster looks way different than that one did.

Total: OVER/UNDER 50.5

For a college game, this isn't an overly high number. It does show, however, that there is an expectation of a decent amount of points being scored.

If you combine the pointspread with the total, the oddsmakers are projecting something around a 28-22 win for Arizona State. The first two Sun Devils games this season - granted two vastly different opponents - produced final totals of 77 and 68 points.

How much will Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham open up the offense on Saturday? | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Sun Devils QB Cutter Boley: OVER/UNDER 240 yards passing

What immediately stands out about this number is that Boley threw for 254 yards last week against a much tougher defense at Texas A&M in a very difficult environment.

However, there are several important things to keep in mind. The first is that Dillingham likely knows that his quarterback attempting 34 passes, like he did last week, isn't a good recipe for success.

There will also likely be a push for Arizona State to rely more on its ground game. The 4.0 yards per carry last week against a solid Aggies defense wasn't awful, especially when considering the scoreboard got away from ASU in the second half.

Still, though, Boley has exceeded this number in both games this season and did it three times last year while at Kentucky. But if Arizona State has a lead, it becomes possible that pass attempts are limited.

Kansas QB Isaiah Marshall: OVER/UNDER 175 yards passing

Keep in mind, that Marshall gets a hefty amount of his production with his feet and there is no doubt the Jayhawks coaching staff will have fully studied the moments when Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed had success last week.

Reed didn't exactly light up the Sun Devils defense last week. He was limited to 180 total yards and his runs (seven carries) were pretty much bottled up. What he did do was take advantage of opportunities the Sun Devils special teams provided.

Marshall had some decent moments last week against Missouri, but overall it was a bad outing as he had just 168 yards passing and threw two interceptions. It seems to us like the oddsmakers aren't projecting much difference against Arizona State.

Sun Devils WR Reed Harris: OVER/UNDER 71 yards receiving

If Reed gets the same sort of attention from Boley that he got last week, this number looks very low.

Obviously, Kansas will be trying to lock up Harris after 189-yard, two touchdown showing in College Station. But the good ones always get that kind of attention and still put up big numbers.

One big play, and Harris flies over this total. But if Arizona State is more ground-game focused and has a lead, that could limit opportunities.

Sun Devils WR Omarion Miller: OVER/UNDER 60 yards receiving

Miller was a statistical aberration last week. If we told you before the game that he'd catch nine balls, you'd have thought he easily cleared 100 yards. Well, he actually had just 29!

Here's the thing, Miller actually leads the team in receptions with 17 compared to Harris' 15. The coaching staff is obviously trying to feature him. That dynamic could make this projected total look laughable when the final box score is revealed.

Either team to score 30 points: Yes -170/No +100

Above we detailed what the oddsmakers are telling you with their pointspread and total lines. To repeat, it projects to a 28-22 win by Arizona State.

It seems much more likely that of the two teams, Arizona State will eclipse 30 points. The Sun Devils have the better pure passer and the better receiving corps. The question will be game flow and whether the difficult circumstances of a game on foreign soil plays with either team's psyche and/or energy level.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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