Texas Tech vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds, Key Player for NCAA Tournament 2nd Round

An exciting No. 5 vs. No. 4 matchup closes out the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday, as the Texas Tech Red Raiders are slight favorites against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Both teams are down important players in this matchup, as 2024-25 Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin is out for the season with a torn ACL for the Red Raiders. Meanwhile, Alabama lost guard Aden Holloway after he was arrested prior to the NCAA Tournament.

Despite that, both teams covered the spread with big-time wins in the first round.

Alabama is one of the best offensive teams in the country, and this game features two potential draft picks at guard in Tech’s Christian Anderson and Alabama’s Labaron Philon Jr.

Let’s take a look at the odds from the best betting sites, a player to watch and my prediction for this second-round matchup.

Texas Tech vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Texas Tech -1.5 (+105)
Alabama +1.5 (-125)

Moneyline

Texas Tech: -118
Alabama: -102

Total

164.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Texas Tech vs. Alabama How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 9:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Benchmark International Arena
How to Watch (TV): TBS
Texas Tech record: 23-10
Alabama record: 24-9

Texas Tech vs. Alabama Key Player to Watch

Labaron Philon Jr., Guard, Alabama

One of the best scorers in the country, Philon is averaging 22.0 points, 3.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game while shooting 51.1 percent from the field and 40.3 percent from 3.

The sophomore dominated in the first round of the NCAA Tournament against Hofstra, dropping 29 points, eight boards and seven assists while shooting 10-of-18 from the field.

Philon has an even bigger role with Holloway away from the team, and Alabama’s chances of making a deep tournament run likely rest on him scoring the ball at a high rate night in and night out.

Texas Tech vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

No team in the country averages more points per game than the Alabama Crimson Tide (91.7), and they didn’t miss a beat in the Round of 64 against Hofstra, scoring 90 points in a 20-point win.

Now, Alabama takes on a Texas Tech team that averages more than 80 points per game this season and is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country.

The Red Raiders are shooting 39.7 percent from beyond the arc, and they are 10th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Alabama is third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and is No.1 in 3-point rate.

The Crimson Tide also play at the fourth-fastest pace in the country, which leads to a ton of high-scoring games. Alabama doesn’t defend very well, ranking 358th in the country in opponent turnover rate and 73rd in opponent effective field goal percentage.

So, there’s gonna be a ton of shot attempts for both sides in this matchup.

The OVER is 17-14-1 in Alabama’s games this season, even though it almost always has sky-high totals. I think we’ll see a shootout on Sunday night.

Pick: OVER 164.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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