Explaining Why Arizona State Football is Being Underrated in 2026

TEMPE -- The 2026 Arizona State football season is now less than six months away from officially kicking off regular season play, as the team opens the year with a home game against Morgan State on September 5.

The Sun Devils are coming off of an 8-5 campaign in 2025, with designs of expanding on a season that was categorized as a disappointment by many - despite staying in the Big 12 race until the final weekend of the regular season.

lknn — Nov 29, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Cutter Boley (8) passes the ball against the Louisville Cardinals during the first quarter at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

While some are inclined to believe that ASU will rebound in the season to come, others are more tempered - including betting markets that have the program's win total shockingly low - ASU on SI explores potential reasons behind this below.

Arizona State's win total on FanDuel Sportsbook is listed at 6.5 for the 2026 season. pic.twitter.com/iBNElmbxSl
— Anthony Totri (@Anthony_Totri) March 13, 2026

Uncertainty at Quarterback

Perhaps the driving force behind betting markets believing that Arizona State will be a fringe bowl team at this juncture is the transition away from Sam Leavitt to (potentially) Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley.

While Kenny Dillingham rebounded from the loss by adding Boley and Michigan transfer Mikey Keene, questions still remain. Boley's talent is undeniable, but he did have turnover concerns over the last two seasons in blue. Keene brings consistent ball placement and extensive experience into the frame, but may not be the ceiling raiser that Leavitt was.

nklnk — Michigan quarterback Mikey Keene (7) warms up ahead of the New Mexico game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, August 30, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

While the quarterback room is seething with potential (Cam Dyer and Jake Fette included), there are general questions that did not exist this time last year.

Grueling Schedule

This is the most challenging schedule that Arizona State will face (on paper) as a member of the Big 12 - with the difficulty of matchup and structure of schedule in mind.

The Sun Devils are set to take on Texas A&M in week two of the season before making a trek to London for the Big 12 opener against Kansas. They also take on three other potentially ranked conference foes on the road (Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona) in what has potential to be a slate that is heavily skewed towards playing testy games in road settings.

klkn — Nov 28, 2025; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Jeff Sims (2) is tackled by Arizona Wildcats defensive lineman Julian Savaiinaea (41) in the second half during the 99th Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

General Trepidation After 2025

The natural reaction to a season where slight regression was displayed is to believe that another season of regression is to follow.

The 8-5 record in 2025 is a bit misleading - as they arguably should have been in double digit victory territory again. However, the consensus appears to be gearing towards the possibility that the 2024 season was more of the exception than the rule, and the potential to miss out on a bowl game appears to be a real possibility according to those in the industry.

nkllk — Nov 28, 2025; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils wide receiver Jalen Moss (18) against the Arizona Wildcats during the 99th Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

If we were the ones calling the shots, it would be more likely that Arizona State approaches 10 wins again compared to struggling to muster six victories together - this roster is too talented and well-coached to regress for a second consecutive season.