Arizona State March Madness Resume Tracker: What Sun Devils Need to Make NCAA Tournament

The Sun Devils face an uphill climb this week to make their first tournament in three years.

Mar 7, 2026; Ames, Iowa, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard Maurice Odum (5) is defended by Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) during the second half at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

TEMPE -- The 16-15 Arizona State Sun Devils don't hold a record that is typically indicative of being an NCAA tournament squad, but a combination of holding collection of compelling victories and consistently competing in what is widely considered the best conference in division one in the Big 12 has certainly left the door cracked open.

Arizona State on SI observes the position ASU is heading into the Big 12 tournament, as well as what they must do in the days ahead to wind up on the right side of the bubble.

Arizona State Appears Outside of Bubble

ESPN's Joe Lunardi briefly had Arizona State on the fringes of the bubble late last week - in the 9-12 range of teams out of the field.

An Arizona State loss and Belmont loss in the Missouri Valley conference tournament pushed the latter into the 12th spot out of the 68-team field.

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— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 8, 2026

One would assume that this means Arizona State must make a miracle run to the automatic bid to make it, but there is potentially a pathway to get onto the right side of the bubble with more quadrant one wins - especially considering that multiple other bubble teams have faltered as of late.

Arizona State's Metrics Heading Into Big 12 Tournament:

• NET: 67

• KenPom: 63

• NET Strength of Schedule: 18

• Strength of Record: 65

• Quad 1 Record: 4-11

Jan 24, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils forward Allen Mukeba (23), guard Anthony Johnson (2) and guard Maurice Odum (5) against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Arizona State's impressive string of victories (at Hawaii, Texas, Oklahoma, Santa Clara, Texas Tech, Kansas) should boost their profile at the surface - while also keeping in mind that Oregon State is the lone loss that is objectively bad out of 31 games played.

More work must be done (particularly in boosting NET), but the Sun Devils have a better profile than many would expect.

What Does ASU Need to do to Reach Tournament?

Analytics site Team Rankings currently gives ASU roughly a 2% chance to reach the ultimate goal of making the 68-team field - but those hopes aren't completely futile.

A win over Baylor (17 wins) would be another quad one win, but wouldn't quite get the job done. A win over Iowa State (top 10 in NET) would place the Sun Devils at 18 wins and would give them a 35% chance to make the field. A third win (Texas Tech) would officially put them in a near-lock status of 90% according to the model - although in a real-world situation, they may need to pull off one more win following the hypothetical three-game win streak.

Mar 3, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Bobby Hurley against the Kansas Jayhawks in the first half at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Read more on the bold strategy that head coach Bobby Hurley employed with comments on 1/21 here, and on why Arizona State may have saved the season with the win over Cincinnati on Saturday here..

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