This Game Could Change Everything for ASU Basketball

ASU faces a season-defining test vs. Texas Tech, with NCAA hopes hanging on one massive home opportunity.

Feb 7, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes guard Jalin Holland (11) defends on Arizona State Sun Devils forward Andrija Grbovic (14) in the second half at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Arizona State’s basketball season hasn’t been perfect. There have been frustrating losses, cold shooting nights, and moments where it felt like the year might quietly fade away.

But here’s the thing, it hasn’t.

With a massive home game coming up against Texas Tech, the Sun Devils are staring at an opportunity that could completely shift their season. Not just emotionally, but mathematically.

Right now, Arizona State is hovering around the NCAA Tournament conversation. 

Their NET ranking has climbed into the low 70s, and their overall metrics are improving at the right time. That matters more than people realize.

Texas Tech's Tyeree Bryan attempts a 3-pointer against Colorado during a Big 12 Conference men's basketball game, Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026, in United Supermarkets Arena. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Why the Texas Tech Game Is So Important

Texas Tech isn’t just another opponent. They’re ranked inside the top 20 in the NET, which means a win would count as a Quad 1 victory, the kind of win that selection committees notice.

For a team sitting at 13–12, that’s huge.

If Arizona State can pull off the upset at home, they’d move to 14–12 with five games left. 

That suddenly puts real pressure on the rest of the schedule in a good way. Instead of chasing miracle scenarios, they’d be playing meaningful, realistic basketball down the stretch.

It’s not an exaggeration to say this game could revive the season.

The Path to 18 Wins

Most projections suggest Arizona State probably needs around 17 or 18 total wins to seriously enter the at-large conversation. That’s a tall task with only six regular-season games remaining.

To get there, they likely need to win four of their final six regular-season games and then add at least one or two wins in the Big 12 Tournament.

That sounds difficult because it is.

But here’s the part that makes it interesting: the opportunity is there.

They still face teams like Baylor, TCU, and Utah. Those aren’t automatic losses. If Arizona State can build momentum with a win over Texas Tech, confidence changes everything.

Feb 7, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils center Massamba Diop (35) during the first half against the Colorado Buffaloes at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Playing With an Edge

What’s been noticeable lately is the urgency. The team seems to understand what’s at stake. They’re rebounding harder. They’re defending with more purpose. They’re playing like a group that doesn’t want the season to end quietly.

Texas Tech presents a major challenge, especially in the frontcourt. But Arizona State is at home. It’s a late tip-off. The environment could be electric.

And sometimes, that’s all it takes, one big win to spark belief.

The road to the NCAA Tournament is narrow. There’s very little margin for error left.

But it’s still there.

And Tuesday night might decide whether it stays that way.