Why Arizona State’s Season Now Comes Down to TCU

Just a few days ago, Arizona State felt like a team building something real. Two straight home wins, confidence growing. A sense that maybe this group had figured it out at the right time.

Then came the loss to Baylor.

Momentum Is Gone

Now, the feeling is completely different. The momentum is gone. The optimism has cooled. And the biggest word surrounding this team is simple: urgency.

With only a handful of games left in the regular season, there is no more room for “almost.” There is no more time to figure things out slowly.

hurle — Feb 21, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Bobby Hurley reacts on the sideline during the second half against the Baylor Bears at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

The Season in Perspective

Here’s the honest truth: Arizona State has not been a bad team this year. In fact, considering they were picked to finish last in the Big 12, they’ve actually exceeded expectations.

They’re competitive. They’re top 70 in offensive efficiency and top 100 defensively. That’s not elite, but it’s solid. They’ve pushed strong teams. Outside of a couple rough road losses, they’ve been in almost every game.

But being competitive isn’t the same as winning.

And at this point in the season, wins are all that matter.

Feb 21, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard Noah Meeusen (15) looks to pass as Baylor Bears center Caden Powell (44) defends during the first half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Why the TCU Game Is Everything

Instead of looking two weeks ahead to Kansas or Iowa State, the real focus should be Tuesday night at TCU. That’s the niche moment that could define everything.

TCU is not flashy, but they are tough.

They’ve won four of their last five games. They don’t blow teams out, they grind them down. Games like 60-54 and 62-55 are normal for them. They are comfortable in ugly, physical battles.

That’s exactly the type of game Arizona State has struggled to close.

David Punch (one of TCU’s most balanced players) can score, rebound, and protect the rim.

Jamie Dixon’s teams always defend hard and move the ball well. They average around 16 assists per game, which shows they don’t just rely on one player.

If Arizona State wants to keep its season alive, it has to win this style of game. Not a shootout. Not a fast-break contest. A disciplined, half-court fight.

Feb 1, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Texas Christian University Horned Frogs forward David Punch (15) and Colorado Buffaloes guard Jalin Holland (11) reach for a rebound in the first half at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

No More Margin for Error

If the Sun Devils beat TCU and then handle Utah at home, hope comes back. The conversation changes again. There’s at least a pulse.

If they split those games, things get shaky.

If they lose both? The season is essentially over.

That’s how thin the margin is right now.

Arizona State has already proven it can surprise people this season. They’ve been better than predicted. But now, moral victories don’t count. Close losses don’t help.

The Baylor game hurt. But the TCU game will decide whether that loss was just a setback or the beginning of the end.

Time isn’t just running short.

It’s almost gone.