Razorbacks' Path Omaha Relies on Hagen Smith and a Prayer
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Hagen Smith's back must hurt from carrying this Arkansas baseball team. The budding junior ace who continues to ascend draft boards will almost certainly make his final regular season start at Baum-Walker Stadium.
Smith has handled the pressure of being a highly regarded prospect to perfection, even asserting himself as the a Top 10 draft pick at No.7 in MLB.com's latest mock draft after starting the season No.12. However, no one could have expected just how much Smith would be asked to carry the load. Arkansas pitching is tops in the conference with a staff-wide ERA of 3.82 in the SEC, but without Smith's 1.10 ERA in there, that number jumps to 4.63.
Smith's most recent start, a 10-3 win over Kentucky, was the first time in SEC play Arkansas hit double digits. All three Razorbacks' wins this season when scoring two runs or fewer are with Smith on the mound, including a 1-0 win over Auburn and a pair of 2-1 wins over South Carolina and Florida.
While Smith's astronomical numbers have been nothing short of special, it also feels like tempting fate. Arkansas is currently a perfect 12-0 when Smith takes the mound and he has not allowed more than two runs since his opening start of the year against James Madison. Even Paul Skenes, the No.1 overall draft pick in the 2023 class, had four outings last year where he gave up at least three runs and two where he was charged with five.
Which begs the question, what happens if Smith is just a tick off? What is the path for the team to win a super regional? Even if he's on his game and banks the opening game for Arkansas like he did against Alabama and Kentucky, those two series should be cause for concern. Brady Tygart and Mason Molina have had their fair share of struggles over the past month. Tygart has allowed nine earned runs in his last 15 innings of work. His 56 2/3 innings is comparable to his workload over the past two years.
Molina hasn't been much better, allowing 10 earned runs in his last 16 2/3 innings, including 13 walks. So much so that coach Dave Van Horn hinted Gage Wood might take either Tygart or Molina's spot in the rotation.
"Gage didn’t just eat up innings," coach Dave Van Horn said after Wood's performance on May 4. "He’s getting ready to take somebody’s job. I loved what I saw."
While Van Horn never specified whose job he would be taking, neither Molina nor Tygart jump off the page as good bullpen options. Molina's command issues could create problems in the middle of an inning. As for Tygart, he has had issues coming out of the bullpen before.
With Will McEntire's ERA over nine for the past month, behind Smith and freshman phenom Gabe Gaeckle, the pitching staff looks suddenly thin. The once clear roadmap of how to navigate the pitching staff on Saturday and Sunday looks murky and fraught with danger.
In the meantime, soak in Smith's final home regular season start at Baum-Walker Stadium Friday at 6 p.m. against Mississippi State. The game will be broadcast on SEC Network+.
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DANIEL SHI