Ranking Rest of Hogs' Schedule in Order of Likelihood They Can Beat Arkansas

No. 1 spot not who Razorback fans might expect

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Sep 5, 2022 6:17 PM EDT
Original:
Sep 5, 2022

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE – It never does any good to make evaluations of teams before their first games, especially in this world of NIL. It's probably not going to be much more accurate after a single week, so despite the fact readers are probably free to print this and use it for toilet paper later in the year, let's take a crack at it.

Picking wins and losses would especially be a fruitless labor, so this list will rank teams based on an evaluation of whether teams have the necessary strengths needed to give them the best opportunity to be a dangerous match-up for the Razorbacks.

To provide a bit of perspective for perusing the list, Cincinnati would have come in at No. 3 had they still been on the schedule.

No. 11

There's a very real chance Missouri will have already been eliminated from bowl contention and Eli Drinkwitz will be more focused on recruiting than getting ready for the Razorbacks. Plus, barring injuries, Arkansas could be one of three teams competing for a spot in the SEC championship game.

The Tigers look like they'll have a decent running game, but run defense is a strength of the Hogs.

Mizzou also gave up 24 points to a Louisiana Tech team coming off a three-win season that is average at passing and dreadful in the run game. Arkansas appears to be a perfectly balanced scoring machine on offense, and that's before this group develops full chemistry.

No. 10

The Flames quite simply aren't that good. They had to go four overtimes to beat a Southern Miss team that only won three games last year.

However, Hugh Freeze's team is balanced, which will at least keep the Arkansas defense honest.

Replacing Malik Willis is an impossible task. Liberty ran through three quarterbacks in the win, combining to complete roughly 50% of their passes while tossing an interception for every six completions.

No. 9

Missouri State struggled against Central Arkansas this week, 27-14, but their ranking above Missouri comes with a few caveats.

First off, the battle of the Bears has happened so much among these two highly respected FCS teams the past few years that their familiarity automatically causes them both to look their worst.

However, the two biggest caveats involve Bobby Petrino returning to exact a bit of revenge on Arkansas and the Bears' passing game. As Cincinnati proved, even at full health the Arkansas secondary is vulnerable to letting receivers run free.

No. 8

The Tigers almost came back to get a win over hapless Florida State in a glorified home game, but found the most LSU ways to make sure a win wasn't going to happen.

If you want to get a feel for 2022 LSU football just skip ahead to the final 2:22 of the game.

LSU looks worse than it has since Barry Lunney, Jr. ran the option for the Hogs in Fayetteville. Former Arkansas Razorback Joe Foucha makes his return from academic suspension just in time to debut against Auburn, but it's hard to imagine him making enough of a difference to pull this team together.

Arkansas gets the Tigers after a run through Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss and Alabama in that order. Unless something changes dramatically in Baton Rouge, the LSU team that wanders into Fayetteville on Nov. 12 will be battered and lacking confidence.

Kelly brought a Notre Dame style of play to LSU that has never fared well against SEC teams. There is extreme dysfunction in the passing game that gives the vibes that not every current receiver will make it to Fayetteville on the roster.

The Tigers appear to pose little threat to the Hogs' weakness. The passing game doesn't extend much further than linebacker depth and the running game is limited to quarterback Jayden Daniels.

LSU can't block, which is not good considering what fans saw out of Terry Hampton this past week. Disarray might very well be the name of the game by the time Arkansas sees this team.

No. 7

Well, that wasn't what anyone expected to see in Columbia.

Georgia State led in the third quarter, Spencer Rattler was all over the place in the passing game, and the Panthers running game was flattening South Carolina before a pair of blocked punts were scooped up by the Gamecocks for a pair of touchdowns to secure the win.

A weak run defense paired with an erratic quarterback who throws twice as many interceptions as touchdowns while leading an offense to only 21 points of offense against Georgia State is not a recipe for success against Arkansas.

It's clear the South Carolina coaches don't trust Rattler with the game on the line, which should make Saturday very interesting.

No. 6

Auburn cannot block. Let's say that again. Auburn can't block.

The 42-16 win over Mercer wasn't nearly as impressive as the score suggests. Tank Bigsby put up 147 yards, but took a lot of punishment he shouldn't have in this game.

Tigers quarterback TJ Finley tends to lock onto a single receiver, which should make things a little easier for a struggling Razorback secondary.

That being said, this is the first team on the schedule to feel like a real threat to possibly beat Arkansas. However, that has more to do with the strange things that tend to happen when these two meet up on the field than the team Bryan Harsin is going to put on the field.

This game may come down to whether the Razorback coaching staff chooses to use stairs or take the elevator.

No. 5

With this game being in Provo, it was originally slotted higher. Then BYU played a game.

This is definitely not your grandfather's Cougars. Instead of flinging it around, which would have made for a horrible match-up for the Hogs, BYU is heavily dedicated to the running game.

The only true threat for Arkansas on this team is a kid by the name of Puca Nacua. He's a true athlete who will be all over the field.

Nacua went 75 yards for a touchdown off a jet sweep on BYU's first play of the season. He's a solid combination of speed and quickness.

The bad news for Arkansas is BYU got off to such a strong start with its running game that produced 312 yards on the ground, that Cougars quarterback Jaren Hall got to spend time building in-game chemistry with his receivers to tack on another 261 yards of offense.

Eight receivers had 20+ yards receiving, which is not good news for Arkansas. If the BYU passing game is rolling as well as its running game currently is when the Hogs hit Provo, it will be a difficult day.

No. 4

If this is the best team money can buy then someone needs to get a refund.

This is borderline one of the best collections of talent in all of college football, but nothing tamps down talent like a Jimbo Fisher offense.

The biggest takeaway for Arkansas is how the Sam Houston State defensive front was able to dominate the A&M offensive line. Yes, the Bearkats are as big of a power as there is at the FCS level, but it's still not Power 5 football.

The line of scrimmage is where the biggest difference between levels is supposed to be most evident.

The other major issue for Texas A&M is at quarterback. Haynes King has wheels and will cause Arkansas fits when he breaks containment.

However, in the passing game, King appears to have Brett Favre's gunslinger mentality without Farve's accuracy.

King is Johnny Manziel without Mike Evans bailing him out every other throw. The negative side for the Razorbacks is the Aggies defense looks legitimate, which will make for a wild afternoon at the Death Star in Arlington.

No. 3

The Rebels pulled off the win last season in what was voted the college football game of the year. If this game wins game of the year after what North Carolina and Appalachian State did in Boone, North Carolina this past week, someone's head is literally going to explode.

Ole Miss was not impressive against Troy, which left head coach Lane Kiffin visibly frustrated. However, the Rebels showed enough to create genuine worry for the Razorbacks, especially defensive coordinator Barry Odom.

Zach Evans and Jalen Robinson don't look human.

There's not a way to actually stop them. Arkansas will just have to hope to slow them down.

The good news for the Razorbacks is Rebels quarterback Jaxon Dart has little regard for care of the football and possession thereof.

Dart is quick to fire a ball to a general five yard by five yard square of the field with no regard as to what happens to it once it arrives there. There will be plenty of opportunities for interceptions if the secondary can pull itself together as the season progresses.

The bad news is Dart is highly gifted at running what may be the fastest offense to ever take the field. The time between plays is no longer than a baby's breath.

Conditioning and discipline is going to be key. Not sprinting back into position after every play is unacceptable and defensive backs will be dragging in the fourth quarter.

This will be a mental test of will for the Hogs.

No. 2

Arkansas has slowly closed the gap on the Crimson Tide and nearly pulled the upset in Tuscaloosa last season.

Alabama comes to Fayetteville to kick off October following a game with Vanderbilt. Typically back-to-back-to-back weeks with Texas, UL-Monroe and Vanderbilt would allow Saban to put it in cruise control and spend three weeks game planning for the Razorbacks.

However, it's possible Vanderbilt enters that game undefeated if the Commodores can pull off an upset of Wake Forrest this weekend, which will force Alabama to put at least minimal effort in getting ready for Vandy.

The Tide no longer hold the mental edge over Arkansas they once did. That feeling of helplessness has moved to Athens where the Bulldogs kept the Razorbacks' grit tacked to a wall with a view of the hedges the past two years.

Saban's team is always down to have a road game come down to the wire with a possible upset loss each season. That opportunity has passed around between Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but Arkansas is due to take on the mantle at some point.

It's hard to gauge how good Alabama actually is this year. Even though Utah State was supposed to be Alabama's big non-conference game this year after posting an 11-3 record and No. 24 finish in the final polls, the Aggies struggle with UConn the previous week proved this game was going to reveal nothing.

Just assume it's the same team as last year, just in Fayetteville instead of Tuscaloosa.

No. 1

Take a moment to remember this list is about which team has the best tools to beat Arkansas, not the best team in the conference.

While Alabama might be the best team on the Arkansas schedule, Mississippi State is a monster created specifically to take down this particular Arkansas team.

Not only are the Bulldogs highly motivated following a frustrating loss to the Hogs last year, will play among the cowbells in Starkville and have a potent Air Raid offense that requires greatness from eight defensive backs when Arkansas is struggling to get greatness out of one, quarterback Will Rogers has achieved Jedi level mastery of Mike Leach's offense.

Rogers made it look effortless while completing 38 passes for 450 yards and five touchdowns against a salty Memphis team. He helped produce three receivers of 20+ yards, three receivers of 30+ yards and three receivers of 60+ yards.

Mississippi State proved Week 1 the Bulldogs can not only put up massive numbers by finding weaknesses in the secondary, but finding a way to chew up clock in a pass heavy offense.

That is a bad recipe for Arkansas. Quarterback KJ Jefferson will need every drop of stoic leadership to win in what will be an epic shootout if the Razorbacks are in it.

On one very important note, Mississippi State kicker Massimo Biscardi hit all seven of his field goal attempts. However, no one knows if he can hit a field goal under pressure in a game situation since the Bulldogs never had to kick a field goal.

For those who don't recall, failures in the kicking game is what saved Arkansas from taking a loss in Fayetteville last season.