FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas fans think it's almost a lock.
Something, though, says Texas A&M being a 2.5-point favorite isn't quite the far-fetched notion a lot of folks dismiss it being.
Too many things have happened in the last decade to make wild assumptions. The Razorbacks' 4-6 record the last decade should have been tilted in their favor.
The Aggies have struggled to find a quarterback since Johnny Manziel thought he could play in the NFL. Their offense limped through Kellen Mond and now they're trying to figure it out.
Along come the Hogs with a secondary that hasn't been able to cover anybody through three games and has been bailed out by a pass rush that's leading the nation in sacks.
There's some thought the Razorbacks might sacrifice a bit of pass rush to add an extra body into the secondary, similar to last season, but there's only so much depth to go around.
The option is to throw some guys out there without a lot of experience, but older guys like Simeon Blair are going to have to produce more consistently. They are trying.
The Hogs beat a ranked Cincinnati team that isn't as good as some people expected, a South Carolina team that is boderline bad and a Missouri State team that was prepared well for one game.
Arkansas' players weren't nearly as excited for that game as the Bears.
For the Aggies, they better be ready. This is the game where A&M has somehow managed to get things straightened out over the past few years, winning nine in a row.
A few of those wins came in an improbable fashion (look up Christian Kirk in 2017 if you want a data point).
Hog fans are brimming with confidence right now. Part of that is a 9-4 season with an Outback Bowl win last year.
The expectations this year are for that or even better.
In the summer, many felt A&M would be one of those teams on the downside. Not finding a quarterback that can consistently move the ball into the end zone.
Nobody is talking about their defense being the best the Hogs have seen this year.
They have a lot of really good athletes that are making plays. Their close games haven't been due to defensive issues.
Now the question is which team can have their weakest part do enough to let them win.
Everybody has an educated guess. You can look at numbers until you're cross-eyed, but the problem is football games aren't played on paper.
There's a scenario where the Hogs could run the Aggies out of the stadium. They would have to score more points on the A&M defense than they've given up all year.
If some of the skill position players the Aggies have (and that's several) can figure out a way to get the ball in their hands, well, the Hogs' defense might have some problems.
We can argue over it for a couple of more days.
Saturday night we'll all know.
• Want to join in on the discussion? Click here to become a member of the allHOGS message board community today!
• View and subscribe to the allHogs YouTube Channel