Big Ten Precedent Makes Hogs' Path to Tourney Not as Daunting

Michigan paved way for Calipari's Arkansas Razorbacks to have realistic chance at dance

Arkansas Razorbacks head coach John Calipari reacts during the game against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Bud Walton Arena. Alabama won 85-81. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Right now the Arkansas Razorbacks, depending on where people look, are scheduled to likely watch from home either as an NIT entrant or a rebuilding program while Arkansas State and possibly Arkansas-Little Rock carry the hopes of the state in the NCAA Tournament.

However, there is a path for all three to hear their names on Selection Sunday, and it's not as daunting as many pronosticators have projected. The general chatter was Arkansas needed to win five of its last seven to get in.

However, precedent for when there is an overwhelmingly difficult conference setting a lower bar for entry exists. At the end of the 2021-22 season, Michigan found its way into the NCAA Tournament after finishing up a 17-14 season that included a loss in its opening game of the Big Ten Tournament.

The Wolverines only had two wins over ranked teams — No. 3 Purdue in eary February and No. 23 Ohio State in the last game of the regular season. Their only respectable non-conference win came over a San Diego State team that went all season unranked in the AP poll and lost in the first round of the NCAA Touranment.

It should be noted that traditionally, Michigan is one of those teams the selection committee tries to find a way to squeeze into the tournament because of brand recognition. More importantly, although there were protests by coaches and analysts across the country to their inclusion, Juwon Howard's team advanced to the Sweet 16, taking a lot of heat off the committee.

There once was a time Arkansas would have been squeezed into the tournament seedings based on name, but those years have long since gone. However, there is one brand associated with Arkansas that is irresistable to the ratings thirsty committee — that of head coach John Calipari. The executives at Paramount want nothing more than to have their turn at telling the chicken man storyline over and over while playing off the question of whether Calipari will bomb out of the tournament in the first round in spectacular fashion once more.

That's why’ll the bar is a little lower for the Hogs than most teams. That and the insanity that is their schedule versus the teams battling them for an at-large bid.

Projected NCAA Tournament Teams on Hogs' Schedule:
• Auburn (1)
• Alabama (1)
• Florida (1)
• Texas A&M (2)
• Tennessee (2)
• Kentucky (3)
• Michigan (4)
• Ole Miss (5)
• Missouri (6)
• Illinois (6)
• Mississippi St. (8)
• Baylor (9)
• Vanderbilt (10)
• Oklahoma (10)
• Texas (11)
• Georgia Bulldogs (11)
• Lipscomb (13)

Based on current projections, Arkansas will finish the season having played 19 games against NCAA Tournament teams, including 12 against the top half of the bracket. The Hogs are currently 5-9 against teams currently in the field with two of those wins coming against seeds from the top four lines of the bracket and a 4-point loss to No. 1 seed Alabama.

Because of the wins over tournament teams and the Michigan precedent, there's a good chance Arkansas can get in with three more regular season wins, although a cherry on top in the form of an SEC Tournament win would help a great deal. One of those wins has to come against South Carolina because the biggest argument for the Razorbacks is the lack of a bad loss.

However, LSU seems determined to play itself into a bad loss. Still, if Arkansas can win at South Carolina, which will not be an easy task because the Gamecocks makes things difficult for everyone and the Hogs are notoriously bad in games before 7 p.m., there's a reasonable chance.

The other two wins have to be Quad 1 wins, which shouldn't be an issue considering that's basically the entire rest of the schedule. It would also be beneficial if one came against a ranked team. The options at the moment are Auburn, Missouri and Mississippi State.

Odds of knocking off the nation's No. 1 overall seed are slim. Bruce Pearl's team is 14-2 in Quad 1 games and undefeated otherwise, plus Johni Broome is Razorback kryptonite, so it's best to look elsewhere while trying to find a potential win.

That leads to the other Tigers on the list. Missouri is vastly underrated at No. 22 at the time of this writing.

Mizzou has beaten Kansas, Florida, Ole Miss and Mississippi State while taking Texas A&M and Tennessee to the wire. Also, the Tigers already rolled Arkansas, 83-65, in a game that wasn't even that close.

It's a night game, so technically the Hogs have the option of winning, but if that happened, it would be by far the most shocking upset of the season for the Razorbacks. So, with that said, that leaves one remaining opportunity for a ranked win.

Mississippi State is a beatable team. Although, that's partially why they may not be ranked in the season finale.

Still, if the Bulldogs do manage to hold onto their ranking, Unfortunately, the Hogs face a pair of major obstacles in this game — it's in Fayetteville and it's a noon tip.

This team's never been comfortable playing in Bud Walton. There is also no evidence Arkansas can win a big game during daylight hours.

Arkansas Games Against Projected Tournament Teams Before 7 p.m.:
• Baylor, L, 72-67
• Illinois, L, 90-77
• Tennesse, L, 76-52
• Ole Miss, L, 73-66
• Florida, L, 71-63
• Missouri, L, 83-65
• Texas A&M, L, 69-61
* Razorbacks are 5-2 against tourney teams at 7 p.m. or later.

At some point the Razorbacks have to prove they can play when the sun is up. Also, it's a lot harder to get to bed at a decent hour on campus on a Friday night with everyone's buddies dropping by wanting to hang out, all the fraternities and sororities going full force and Dickson Street in full swing just down the road.

Although, sleep doesn't appear to have been the issue recently either. This group of players just can't seem to get their minds and bodies in tune together until it gets dark.

It's just unnatural to them to play basketball so early. It's why things happen like throwing a pass to a teammate who is standing perfectly still and it bouncing off his chest because he never saw it coming since he wasn't paying attention to the game and keeping an ear open for Calipari at the same time.

Still, there is one option that isn't as obvious. The Texas Longhorns are coming off a win over Kentucky and have settled into a final stretch of the season that includes nothing but winnable games over the lowest ranked teams in the SEC standings plus Mississippi State.

It's going to be a tall task for Arkansas to knock Texas off again, but the Hogs may not have to. If Arkansas gets wins over South Carolina and Vanderbilt, the Razorbacks get to 17 wins and that win on the road against Texas becomes a win over a ranked team.

If Arkansas can win in the first round of the SEC Tournament, that will give Calipari's team 18 wins with four Quad 1 wins on the resume and no bad losses. Of the 26 teams below the Razorbacks in the NET rankings that fall in the Top 68, only five has as many or more Quad 1 wins and only one of those, a West Virginia team that will struggle to get to 19 wins in a weaker conference, doesn't have a bad loss.

There is hope for Arkansas. If the Hogs pull off an unexpected win over Auburn, Texas, Missouri or Mississippi State, then they're in so long as Vanderbilt and South Carolina go under the win column also. Anything outside of that, and it all goes fully into the selection committee's hands which means everyone will then get to see just how much weight the Calipari name continues to hold.

That's not a place Arkansas wants to be. That's the kind of move that likely ends in the Hogs deciding whether they want to open up Bud Walton Arena for a run in the NIT.

HOGS FEED:

• Selection commitee seeding release makes big case for Arkansas

• National reporter heaps praise toward Hogs' 2026 QB commit

• Highly touted Razorbacks beginning first year as teammates

• Freshman pitcher Wiggins impresses in debut for Razorbacks

• Casino exec positive about Arkansas NIL despite turbulent day

• Subscribe and follow us on YouTube
• Follow HogsSI on X and Facebook