Arkansas Has Every Advantage Except Most Important One Against Mississippi State

Night game would have been blowout, but Hogs must instead break daylight curse

Arkansas Razorbacks guard Johnell Davis goes up for a shot against the Oklahoma Sooners at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. / Nilsen Roman-Hogs on SI Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Unlike South Carolina last Saturday where everything other than the Gamecocks' record indicated Arkansas was about to get a boot firmly planted in its posterior, the on-court facts are in the Razorbacks' favor when it comes to the regular season finale against No. 25 Mississippi State.

If only it weren't for that pesky time problem. John Calipari's team seems to have every advantage it needs to pull off another upset and firmly burn Arkansas into the NCAA Tournament bracket except for the one his Hogs have willed into being the most important of all — the start time.

The tape is clear. So long as Arkansas doesn't fall in love with the three, the Hogs can win, and possibly by double digits.

The Bulldogs struggle with teams that come down the lane hard. They lose discipline quickly, giving easy access to lay-ups while also losing track of offensive players elsewhere on the floor.

DJ Wagner and Nelly Davis should have a field day offensively if they can remain patient and stick to the plan, and there will be opportunity for a few Trevon Brazile highlight dunks if he's mentally checked in. Meanwhile, there will be numerous chances to create offense off defense.

One of the more powerful weapons of Mississippi State is to float the ball from the arc into the paint in heavy traffic. The ball is caught, often flat-footed, then a soft turn around shot or a gentle side step and scoop shot goes up and in.

That's a dream for guys like Zvonimir Ivisic, Jonas Aidoo and Brazile. Before Mississippi State coach Chris Jans tells his guys to give up on the strategy, the three should be able to throw the world's greatest block party.

This, in turn, should lead to several fast breaks resulting in lay-ups and dunks. What's more, Mississippi State gets sped up easily, and when it does, the play gets sloppy.

The turnovers and missed shots add up fast. It takes the Bulldogs a while to settle back down.

This is good for the Hogs because, just like Vanderbilt, the Bulldogs are streaky. They go on long run runs where it doesn't feel like they're pouring it on, but the scoreboard keeps stacking points.

Then they cool off for a bit and start the cycle over again. The more times Arkansas can speed Mississippi State up to create unforced turnovers and cool off those streaks for prolonged periods of time, the better their odds are of winning.

However, that brings things to the elephant in the room. Arkansas is the farthest thing from a morning team as can possibly be constructed.

It's as if they have never been to bed before 5 a.m. and don't wake up until at least 3 p.m. They are sluggish and slow at best the earlier games are scheduled and it's shown in their record.

Arkansas is 0-6 in SEC games played before 7 p.m. In noon games against Tennessee and South Carolina, the Razorbacks looked like they never even got out of bed.

In fact, Calipari talked about skipping the shoot-around in Knoxville because his players needed more sleep. The result of those two games was a 24-point loss to the Volunteers and a 19-point loss to the Gamecocks that required a huge comeback in the final minutes to make it somewhat respectable.

As for Mississippi State, they approach things similar to the people of South Arkansas. Starting at 11 a.m. means getting started well into the day and the Bulldogs are bursting with energy.

It's night games that are their Achilles heel. Had this been a 9 p.m. game like the Hogs had against Vanderbilt Tuesday night, Arkansas would win by 20 easily.

The Razorbacks become more indestructible the later it gets, while Mississippi State might not even make it out of the locker room that late and certainly wouldn't get up from their naps at halftime.

However, it's a morning game and that's heavily in the Bulldogs' favor. Jans' team is 10-2 in contests played 5 p.m. or earlier, including six of their eight SEC wins and victories over Utah and No. 16 Memphis.

It will be a contrast of strengths. The elements are there for for Arkansas to break its daylight curse.

However, that's going to require figuring out a sleep problem that has shown no signs of being overcome and a Mississippi State team that's already knocked out morning chores, breakfast, lunch and warm-ups and is raring to go.

A win and the Hogs are locked. Lose and their fate falls to the selection committee and the off chance of upsets in conference tournaments where the favorite is already penciled in also.

The game airs at 11 a.m. on the SEC Network.

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