Will Auburn Be Bowl-Eligible in 2026? Breaking Down Tigers’ Chances After Georgia Upset

Auburn now only needs two wins after coming up with the biggest win in program history over the last decade.

Oct 17, 2026; Athens, Georgia, USA; Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown (17) throws downfield during the second quarter against Georgia at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Auburn Tigers have not been bowl-eligible since 2023, and after losses to Tennessee and Florida, along with the difficulty of their remaining schedule, many began to believe that the Tigers would, yet again, miss out on the six-win mark in 2026. 

However, after a hallmark upset win against Georgia, the Tigers improved to 4-2, so they’ll only need two more wins to earn bowl eligibility. The rest of their schedule, particularly in the SEC, is quite difficult, so will the Tigers make a bowl? Let’s break down their chances.

Up next for the red-hot Tigers is a matchup with LSU, as Lane Kiffin and company will travel to Jordan-Hare Stadium. Both Tiger teams will be looking to pick up where they left off, as Kiffin’s group took down Mississippi State 31-0 this past Saturday.

As it stands, the Auburn is still an underdog against their rival Tigers, holding just a 28.7% chance to win. Of course, they’ve shown they can beat worse odds, and playing in their own stadium should help significantly. That game is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. CT this upcoming Saturday.

Then, the Tigers will take a trip to Oxford to take on the Ole Miss Rebels, who have had several high and low points this season. Playing a night game on Halloween in Oxford will certainly be a difficult test for the Tigers, who have just a 28.2% chance to beat the Rebs.

Then, the Tigers will finally have a matchup that, as of October 18, they are expected to win, as the struggling Arkansas Razorbacks come to town on Nov. 7. Auburn has an 84.4% chance to beat KJ Jackson and company, though they’ll need to be on their guard, lest this turn into a trap game for the Tigers.

For the first time since SEC play began, the Tigers are a favorite over the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who, as mentioned, fell to LSU 31-0 this past weekend. Despite the fact that the game will be played in Starkville, the Tigers still have a 57.2% chance to win after their win against Georgia.

The Tigers will face back-to-back Bulldog teams, and against Samford, the Tigers will enjoy their third-straight favored matchup, as Auburn currently has a 99% chance to take down their in-state opponents in Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Of course, every Auburn season ends the same way: the Iron Bowl. The Tigers will take on the Alabama Crimson Tide on Nov. 28, in a game that Auburn currently has just a 17.2% chance to win. The game will be played in Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, a strong advantage for a Tide team that has looked quite strong this year, barring losses to Georgia and Tennessee.

If the Tigers can win just two of these games, they’ll lock up bowl eligibility for the first time since 2023, a strong start to Alex Golesh’s tenure on the Plains. If they can win three, they’ll have the best record that a Tiger team has had since 2019, when the team went 9-4.

Sign up for our free Auburn Tigers newsletter and follow us on Facebook and X for the latest news!