Baylor Football among seven Big 12 teams ESPN says could reach 2025 CFP
In every Power Four Conference, there are teams that stand out among the rest. There might be a couple of teams toward the top, but there are clear leaders -- but not in the Big 12 Conference. The Big 12 might be the only conference that has a ton of parity. Arizona State was the Big 12 champion in 2024, but there is no guarantee the Sun Devils come away with the same accomplishment in 2025.
In fact, according to ESPN, there are seven Big 12 teams that could make the CFP this season. ESPN ranked 32 teams that have a shot to make the 12-team Playoff, and it's giving almost half the teams in the Big 12 a chance.
17th overall: Kansas State
24th: Arizona State
26th: Kansas
27th: BYU
29th: Baylor
31st: TCU
32nd: Texas Tech
According to ESPN's analytics, the Bears have a 10.5% chance of making the Playoff this year, with a .2% chance of winning the national title -- so you're saying there's a chance.
ESPN's Heather Dinich disagrees with the analytics and favors Baylor.
"Disagree. Baylor is a team that can be in the conversation in November simply because it can win the Big 12. Coach Dave Aranda said this is his best team, and the Bears are poised to build off a strong finish to 2024. Still, Baylor will have to play its way into the committee's top 25 before it's taken seriously in the race."
ESPN says Baylor's toughest test with come in Week 2 against SMU, but Dinich notes that if the Bears can start off 2-0 -- wins over both Auburn and SMU -- the committee will favor Baylor in the end.
"A 2-0 start. If Baylor beats Auburn and SMU -- two games ESPN's FPI projects it will lose -- the Bears' playoff stock will rise immediately. With two nonconference wins against Power 4 opponents, Baylor will separate from other contenders who played a weaker lineup -- including in the Big 12. There's also the slim possibility that Auburn or SMU is competing with Baylor for an at-large spot, and that head-to-head win would tilt at least one major tiebreaker in the Bears' favor."
However, Dinich also noted that Baylor has a weak November schedule, and even if the Bears can win the early tests, slip-ups late in the year will hinder Baylor's chances to get into the CFP.
"A November fade. Baylor's schedule is frontloaded with opportunities to impress the committee, including league matchups against favorites Arizona State and K-State. That leaves a lull, though, in the backstretch, which might not include one ranked opponent over the span of the final six games. That's also when the rankings are in full swing, and the committee is the most dialed in. Historically, it's been easier for teams to overcome early losses than late ones. A loss to an unranked league opponent would damage the Bears' résumé at a critical point in the committee's deliberations."
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Trent is the Publisher of Baylor Bears on SI and also serves as the Managing Editor for Michigan Wolverines on SI. His work has additionally been featured on Maryland on SI, Wisconsin on SI, and across the USA TODAY Sports network. Trent’s love of sports and being able to tell stories to fans is what made him get into writing.