Previewing Iowa State/Kansas State’s “Farmageddon” matchup -- What it means for Baylor
Last year, the Big 12 ended in a 4-way tie at the top of the conference, with Iowa State getting into the conference championship via a tiebreaker and Kansas State slotting right below that four-man group. So, in college football’s first-ever ranked-on-ranked Week 0 matchup, it’ll be important for Baylor fans to see, even this early in the season, how this conference game will affect standings going forward.
And, with two of the top quarterbacks in the conference, this is an opportunity for some scouting, particularly to see how Iowa State plans to replace all the receiving production they lost from last year, and if Avery Johnson has taken a legitimate step in terms of his accuracy and pocket play. While neither team will probably look its sharpest with it being Week 0 and college football’s lack of a preseason (while also being played halfway across the country), last year’s Week 0 matchup did provide some insight into Brent Key’s burgeoning Georgia Tech program, which produced one of last year’s instant classics with their double overtime bout with Georgia in “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate”, and the disasterclass that would be Florida State and DJ Uiagalelei
Kansas State
The Wildcats are three-point favorites at the sportsbook, and I think that largely can be attributed to Chris Kleiman’s commitment to the run game, with Johnson as one of the best dual-threats in the country and Dylan Edwards’ nearly 700 yards from scrimmage. Meanwhile, Iowa State’s run defense ranked outside the top 100 last year in FBS, surrendering an average of 108 yards on the ground. Now, Kansas State will need to prove early and often that they can impose their will at the line of scrimmage, returning only two starters from last year’s offensive line, and the fact is this isn’t a team, outside of Jayce Brown, that’s going to stack chunk plays on top of each other.
Ball control and that defense, led by do-everything linebacker Austin Romaine (think their version of Keaton Thomas), will be very important for the Wildcats, and I give Iowa State a better chance to come back from behind versus if the Wildcats get down early. With DJ Giddens gone to the NFL, it’ll be interesting to see if Edwards can go from part-time explosive playmaker to taking ona full 15-20 carry workload, but regardless, Kansas State, with Johnson making enough plays off-script with his legs (and maybe with a few designed QB runs) and Edwards’ home-run ability, should be able to consistently move the chains on the ground against this 3-3-5 defense-- if Johnson is accurate enough against a consistently stingy Iowa State secondary to not allow Cyclone DC John Heacock to load the box.
Kansas State is a 3-point favorite over Iowa State tomorrow in Dublin, per @BetMGM👀
— On3 (@On3sports) August 22, 2025
Who you got? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/1xQJmcNMiE
Iowa State
In discussing K-State’s advantage in the run game, the Cyclones will have a similarly advantageous situation in the pass game -- the Wildcats struggled to both rush the passer and consistently cover, giving up over 230 passing yards on average in 2024, with just 35 sacks. And, that’s before they lost four of its five starters in the secondary and graduated first-team All-Big 12 edge rusher Brendan Mott. However, to capitalize on a potentially leaky Wildcat secondary, Cyclone wide receiver transfers Chase Sowell, who had two majorly productive years at East Carolina, and former 4-star recruit Xavier Townsend will need to show immediate returns and replace at least some of the production that Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel took with them to the NFL.
The X-factor? Junior running back Carson Hansen broke out in a big way with over 700 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. Kleiman and Co. have built their entire brand on being physical, both running the ball and stopping the run, but while Hansen may not offer the explosiveness of a Dylan Edwards, at 6’2, 220 pounds, he’s their Bryson Washington-esque bell cow back. He’s the exact type of runner that gets harder and harder to tackle as the game goes on, especially in a Week 0 contest where conditioning may not be all the way there and there’s been limited full-scale physicality in camps. I still think Rocco Becht either wins or loses this game for Iowa State, but Hansen could swing the game with some crucial runs and force the Wildcats to place more defenders in the box and open up the field for Becht
What It Means for Baylor
For Baylor fans, this is an early look as to how they measure up against two potential hurdles in the Big 12 playoff bid race.. The Bears don’t face Iowa State in the regular season, but they will get some tape for their Week 6 matchup against the Wildcats at home. How Johnson and Becht perform is worth paying close attention to -- Johnson has truly taken a leap, and Becht builds on last year’s breakout, Sawyer Robertson’s growth becomes even more critical for Baylor to stay competitive in a quarterback-driven conference. Watching how Iowa State’s new receivers mesh, and whether Kansas State’s rebuilt offensive line holds up, should also give Baylor fans an early feel for where the Bears’ opportunities might come later this fall.
Prediction
Last year was a close game that ended up being Iowa State’s record-setting 10th win in the regular season. Neither quarterback was particularly good, with Johnson’s errant pitch on the first play of the game causing a fumble and a crucial intentional grounding call leading to a 4th quarter safety, while Becht completed just 13 of his 35 passes. However, they both managed to damage with their arms and legs, with Johnson gaining nearly 300 total yards and Becht punching in a score on the ground. I expect both to play better, and, while I think Becht is the better quarterback, give me the Wildcats’ run game, and the duo of Johnson and Jayce Brown, to make just a few more plays than Iowa State and their new receiving core. Friend of the site Shehan Jeyarajah (check out our sitdown with him here) picked Kansas State over at CBS Sports, and I’ll roll with him, and #EMAW to pull out the big-time conference win in Dublin.
Score
Kansas State 24, Iowa State 21
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Josh began covering Baylor athletics in July 2025. Before this, he previously wrote for Syracuse men's basketball and football at SI from 2022-24. As a former Division I defensive lineman at Prairie View, Josh is passionate about storytelling from a former athlete's perspective. When he's not covering Baylor, he enjoys traveling, listening to podcasts and music, and loves cooking a good meal.