Baylor Football Roundtable: Four Big Questions Surrounding Dave Aranda

The questions surrounding Dave Aranda are only going to get louder as we get closer to the beginning of the 2026 season. Our panel of experts looked to tackle some of the biggest questions surrounding the football program.

Nov 22, 2025; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda against the Arizona Wildcats at Casino Del Sol Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Football season just ended, and yet still feels like it is right around the corner. Dave Aranda’s name was in the news cycle this week as someone who could be a name to watch in the coaching carousel, so we took a few of our experts to get a gauge on where everything sits with Aranda and what he could do to save his job.

Here are some of the key questions surrounding the Bears and their Head coach as we move full speed ahead to 2026.

What is the Most Important Game for Aranda to Win?

Jacob Haddadin

The TCU game on October 17th, 2026 is the most important game for Dave Aranda to win.

Dave Aranda is an abysmal 1-5 against the Horned Frogs, with multiple blow out losses mixed in there. Along with this TCU sets up to be Baylor's sixth game of the season.

Baylor fans will be hoping to be 3-2 by then with winnable games against Colorado, Lousiana Tech, and Prarie View A&M all at home and more difficult games against Auburn and Arizona State on the road.

 If Baylor can beat TCU, they could push to 4-2, with three more winnable games on the horizon before their final three game stretch will be difficult.

Trent Knoop

Believe it or not, I think it’s the opener against Auburn in Georgia. Last season, Baylor was expected to contend for the Big 12 — we know how that turned out — and that Week 1 home game vs. Auburn was just a sign of things to come. 

If Aranda can get that win under his belt, the next two games should be easy wins before hosting Colorado in Week 4. The Bears would have a legitimate chance to start 4-0 and build confidence entering a gauntlet of a Big 12 schedule. 

Bennett Parker

Aranda needs to beat TCU. Since coming on, he is 1-5 against the rival Horned Frogs.

In 2019, he let a 5-7 TCU team keep the Bears out of the College Football Playoffs; since then, he has simply been outcoached by Gary Patterson and Sonny Dykes. This game will likely be under the microscope, as Coach Aranda has to prove it against the Frogs

Jacob Westendorf

For all the changes in college football, it’s still true that this sport cares about its rivalries, and the Bears have not been good enough in their rivalry game against TCU. As previously noted, Aranda is 1-5 against the Horned Frogs, and some of those teams have not been nearly as good as those that have competed for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

There is some extra patience awarded to coaches who win the biggest games, and Aranda certainly has not done that. This year, he has to beat the Horned Frogs.

How Hot is his Seat Right Now?

Jacob Haddadin

Dave Aranda and the staff have to win eight games this season.

Last season's abrupt failure could have been attributed to several factors, with late spring transfers and injuries across the offense and defense being the main two.

But the fanbase and the administrators' patience seem to have run out. The seat is possibly the hottest in the country. I believe that if former athletic director Mack Rhoades hadn't spontaneously stepped away from Baylor,

Aranda would have been fired, but instead, Aranda got this extra year amid the turmoil of the search for the next athletic director. I am hoping he can win eight or more games to save his job, but it is a tall task.

Trent Knoop

Simply, very hot. Again, the Bears were picked to contend for the Big 12 last season and Baylor won five games. Aranda cannot afford another season like that. Recruiting will continue to suffer and I think this is Aranda’s prove-it year in Waco. 

Bennett Parker

Warm, but could get scalding fast. Expect Dave Aranda to have a short leash this season; if his team starts 2-4 (the 4th loss would be to TCU at home), his job will be in severe danger.

Like it or not, if he starts 3-3, I can't imagine that he gets the boot midseason.

Jacob Westendorf

Scalding hot. He’s already being mentioned as a potential member of the 2026 coaching carousel. Those questions don’t come out of nowhere. If they get blown out in their season opener against Auburn, those questions are only going to get louder.

If a loss to Auburn leads to a slow start, this could be a situation where Baylor tries to get ahead of the coaching carousel and lets Aranda go before the calendar turns to November.

What Could Take the Pressure Off of Him?

Jacob Haddadin

Something Dave Aranda did that diverted much of the attention from him and back onto the team was the hiring of Joe Klanderman as defensive coordinator and the signing of Junior quarterback DJ Lagway.

 Klanderman will take over the play-calling duties, which Aranda frankly struggled with last season.

Along with this, the signing of Lagway sparked a bit of hope and excitement in the fanbase, who largely felt apathetic. If Baylor can get to eight wins and retain much of this year's portal class, there would be a lot of hope heading into the 2027 season.

Trent Knoop

Winning. After losing Sawyer Robertson, Josh Cameron, Bryson Washington, Keaton Thomas, and a plethora of other starters to graduation and the portal, it’s sort of a rebuild year.

But the addition of DJ Lagway has sparked some hope in the fanbase. Baylor needs at least eight wins for Aranda to remain in Waco, in my opinion. 

Bennett Parker

Eight wins. I think eight wins is the benchmark for him to secure his job into 2027. An 8-4 record would probably mean that Baylor beats the likes of TCU, Iowa State, and Arizona State. This would be a huge improvement from the 2025 season and enough to keep Aranda around.

Jacob Westendorf

Not just an eight win season, but who those eight wins come against. Losing all of their big ticket games to teams like TCU and Texas Tech would be a bit of an empty calories season for the Bears, and could cause the powers that be to wonder if they need to look elsewhere.

Winning, and having the team playing its best football at the end of the season. It sounds cliché, but those two things tend to cure a lot of problems.

Who is the most important player on the roster for Baylor to Achieve their Goals?

Jacob Haddadin

The most important player, aside from DJ Lagway, is Travion Barnes.

 Barnes took a medical redshirt last year and will be expected to have a massive role in 2026. He fills in for star linebacker Keaton Thomas, who did a lot of the heavy lifting last season at the middle linebacker position.

If Barnes can play like Thomas did last season, the Bears' defense will be looking far improved, especially with all the additions across the defensive line and secondary.  

Trent Knoop

It has to be DJ Lagway, right? The prodigal’s son returns to Waco and there is a lot of excitement regarding Lagway.

The former five-star QB has had two seasons of experience and combining him with Jake Spavital could make a great duo. I’m not confident in Baylor’s defense quite yet, so the Bears are going to need an electric offense to win games — it starts with the QB. 

Jacob Westendorf

Not to sound like a broken record, but everything starts and stops at the quarterback position. The Indiana Hoosiers were a wasteland for years before hiring Curt Cignetti, and in his second season in Indiana he found Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy en route to a national championship.

Those would be lofty goals for this version of the Baylor Bears, but Lagway needs to live up to his five-star billing to allow this team to compete for anything in the Big 12.

Here are the key remaining games for @BaylorWBB to finish the seasonhttps://t.co/Hc87zZt5H2

— Baylor Bears On SI (@BaylorBearsOnSI) February 10, 2026

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