3 Predictions for Baylor vs. UCF: Can the Bears Cover?

The Bears' interim head coach Joe Klanderman leads his team into the Bounce House, looking to stop the two-game skid

Nov 1, 2025; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears cornerback Reggie Bush (22) breaks up the pass to UCF Knights wide receiver Waden Charles (19) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Baylor stares down UCF on Friday night as they try to avoid a third straight loss. The Bears torched UCF in Waco last November 30-3 and will try to rinse and repeat on the road.

UCF is undefeated on their home turf and is coming off a dramatic victory over No. 2 BYU, making them 1.5-point favorites over the Bears.

Here are three predictions for Joe Klanderman's debut in Baylor's Week 9 matchup:

It will still feel like Aranda's team

The Bears have parted ways with Dave Aranda after seven years, and Joe Klanderman has stepped into the interim head coach role.

Klanderman had just five days to get this team into shape before UCF. While his methods and leadership may be strong, it is surely hard to turn a football team on its head in less than a week.

With offensive coordinator Jake Spavital still in charge of the offensive playcalling, I doubt Baylor is going to look dramatically different than they did against Kansas. Doesn't mean the Bears can't win, but it will take more time to see major, positive change in the intangibles.

Baylor improves the run defense

Oct 24, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks running back Dylan Edwards (1) runs the ball against Baylor Bears defensive lineman Jae'lin Battle (54) and linebacker Travion Barnes (5) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Bears' defensive line is too talented to get beat the same way twice. The unit got gashed on the ground against Kansas and faces another strong running back room in the Knights.

I expect Baylor's defensive front to be much more solid this week, containing both the playmaking quarterback Keyone Jenkins and running back Duke Watson

UCF covers the spread

There are reasons to believe in the Bears right now, but not enough of them. Whether it was a fluke or not, the Bears just lost to Kansas, and before that, scored six points against TCU at home.

UCF was able to beat TCU and is coming off one of the best upsets of the college football season. The Bounce House will be rocking, and Baylor is just looking to get their feet under them during a tough stretch of the season.

Oct 3, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; UCF Knights quarterback Keyone Jenkins (12) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Bears' current offense gives me no reason to expect a fun game. If Baylor wins, it will likely be a grindy game where the defense comes through, but I think UCF covers their sixth spread of the season and wins by at least a field goal.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 

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