Predicting the final scores for Baylor football to finish the regular season in 2025
With Baylor entering the back half of its schedule, the picture of who the Bears truly are has begun to crystallize. The margin for error remaining is thin for Baylor's postseason goals, but the combination of Sawyer Robertson’s poise and the offense’s explosiveness gives Baylor a fighting chance in nearly every matchup left on the slate. The upcoming stretch features a mix of familiar rivals and new Big 12 faces, each posing a different kind of test. Baylor’s challenge now is building off its good start into a finish that could have them end up inside the top 25 and vying for a spot in Arlington for the Big 12 conference championship game.
With that, here’s how I see the Bears’ final six games playing out — and where the path to a strong finish could emerge.
at TCU: Baylor wins by 4 (35-31)
Obviously, Baylor fans have the confidence of beating Kansas State in Baylor’s last game, while TCU just suffered a 13-point loss at the hands of the Wildcats. However, Baylor fans know that the game was seriously in danger most of the way until the fourth quarter, and would be wise to not feel overly confident about that result going into this game. However, there are two things that gives me confidence about this matchup for Baylor. One is the anemic offensive starts that TCU got off to in both halves of that Kansas State game, with Baylor not having an offense that you can afford to have long dry stretches like that on. But also, with Baylor’s defense being average at best, Josh Hoover, who threw double-digit interceptions last year and leads the Big 12 so far with six, has shown that he will let defenses off the hook, a reason why I was slightly lower down on him going into the season.
at Cincinnati: Cincinnati wins by 7 (38-31)
While Hoover can be a gambler, Brendan Sorsby has only thrown one pick this season, and has led Cincinnati to one of the more surprising records in the country. In their toughest test to date, the Bearcats jumped out to a 17-point first quarter lead to a now-stumbling Iowa State team. With them having a balanced rushing attack with three players over 300 rushing yards so far, a game-wrecker in Dontay Corleone in just an OK Baylor offensive line, and one of the best linebackers in the conference in Jake Golday, I think the Bearcats keep their winning ways going at home against the Bears
vs. UCF: Baylor wins by 10 (34-24)
Another new conference mate, if Baylor is the team that thinks they are, they need to make quick business of the Golden Knights. After an impressive 34-9 throttling of UNC, UCF has dropped three straight conference games including a two-touchdown loss to Kansas State. While they fought tough against Cincinnati, Baylor has a chance to build confidence before arguably their toughest game remaining, and I think they do/
vs. Utah: Baylor wins by 3 (31-28)
This is one of two games that Baylor will most likely be seen as underdogs going into, depending on what the Utes do in their matchup against BYU in Provo and their hosting of Cincinnati in Salt Lake City. Even so, I see a path for a Baylor win. Devon Dampier has been dynamic, but one of the least efficient passers in the conference. And, despite having two premier tackles in Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu, an uninspiring group of skill guys has led to a lack of explosive plays for the Utes. Don’t be fooled by their recent domination of Arizona State: the Sun Devils trotted out collegiate Journeyman Jeff Sims, and Dampier barely cracked 100 yards passing. This is the game I flipped on the most, but ultimately, gave the Bears a slight edge, given how competitive they’ve been in their losses against their toughest opponents
at Arizona: Baylor wins by 4
Noah Fifta has been able to put together somewhat of a redemption campaign after his 2024 season saw him lead the conference in interceptions, but I do think it is one of the teams in the conference that Baylor can out-talent. Traveling to the West Coast isn’t ideal for the Bears, and a win isn’t outside the realm of possibility. However, I think Baylor will still have an outside chance of making the Big 12 championship game and will be focused on making sure to handle business in the last two games of the season.
vs. Houston: Baylor wins by 7
Houston has also gotten out to a surprising start, with Texas A&M transfer Connor Weigman showing what made him such a highly touted recruit. With that, I see a narrow three-point win against Oregon State, along with a talent deficit similar to that of Arizona compared to Baylor, to be able to pull out a road win against a long-rooted member of the conference. As good as Weigman has been so far, Sawyer Robertson will be significantly better, and a relatively soft conference schedule won’t give them the best preparation for this season's finale.
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Josh began covering Baylor athletics in July 2025. Before this, he previously wrote for Syracuse men's basketball and football at SI from 2022-24. As a former Division I defensive lineman at Prairie View, Josh is passionate about storytelling from a former athlete's perspective. When he's not covering Baylor, he enjoys traveling, listening to podcasts and music, and loves cooking a good meal.