Vital Statistics Required for Baylor Bears' Bowl Chances
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Scotty Swingler of Bear Illustrated had a recent article that brings up two interesting facts and stats around the Bears' bowl chances for this season. After examining the Bears from 2011 until present day, both yards per run as well as third down conversion percentages serve as a "yes, they're bowling" or "no, they're staying home" binary kind of result.
Unfortunately for this year's Baylor team through the first three games, they're showing the signs that they aren't bowl-bound this season.
The Offensive Line Needs to Step Up
They're new to Baylor, Coach Aranda is still figuring out where each player's best fit on the line is, and even the issues with injuries and staying healthy; these are all lines that have been parroted by every media outlet covering the Bears this season to the point of redundancy.
It's not the offense as whole, and it's not on the running backs as Dawson Pendergrass is relentless in moving his feet and body forward, Caden Knighten still has the same blinding speed and elusiveness he showed during his freshman season, and even true freshman Ryelan Morris showed dynamic explosiveness during the LA Tech game as he took the Bears from midfield on 3rd and 16 to near the goal line two runs later as game time expired.
But, even with those three in the backfield, the Bears only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, a number that's even less impressive at 3.07 when Morris' final run of the game (33 yards) is removed from the equation.
How it's Gone so Far
Through the first three games, Baylor has only averaged 3.75 yards per carry, and no disrespect meant to PVA&M or LA Tech, but that's just not a good number to have through three games after having those two teams as opponents.
A win is a win though, and at the end of the day that's all that matters; but not being to move the ball on the ground when it matters is going to matter, and that's why this stat matters. Anything higher than 4.19 yards per carry since 2010 has yielded a bowl game to the Bears whereas any season with less than 4.15 yards per carry has seen Baylor sitting at home during bowl time.
Third Down Conversions Keep an Offense on the Field and Headed for a Bowl Game
Obviously staying on the field and converting third downs are vitally important for any team's success and a team that can run the ball can also make third downs more manageable. Every bowl bound Baylor team since 2010 though? 41.2% or higher when it comes to third down conversions. The years where Baylor missed a bowl game? 37.6% or lower. Through the first three games this season? The Bears sit somewhere in between at 40.8%
Baylor has struggled with third down conversions this season, a key attribute in their only loss of the season to Auburn converting only 7-22. Coach Aranda may be willing to attempt fourth down conversions with his offense, but the thought on offense shouldn't be "It's 3rd down, so what play do we run when we get to 4th down next play?" and it should be "it's 3rd and 5? Let's get 7!" It's been a challenge this season, and if the Bears expect to play a bowl game this season, it's one that they're going to have to overcome.
An Exception to the Rule?
While there hasn't been one to any of Mr. Swingler's findings so far, there are still plenty of games left to be played this season to steady the course and raise both of those numbers. The return of DJ Lagway this week is set to open up more of the playbook with essentially another runner for the defense to account for on each play. Nate Bennett, for as solid as he's performed in his two starts for the Bears, just isn't the running threat that Lagway is expected to be.
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Brad is a writer and contributes to the Baylor Bears on SI, with aspirations to share his own unique thoughts and perspectives with fans. Whether through the facts and figures of the past or the untold potential and triumphs of the future, sports have always been a large influence on Brad's storytelling and life overall. His inspiration to write began while watching sports when he first noticed the highs and lows of each game, each quarter, each play; there's a story in each of them worth telling, and he wanted to tell them.
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