BYU Basketball Tips Off Critical Two-Game Road Stretch at Utah

On Tuesday, the BYU basketball bounced back from a three-game losing streak by beating Oklahoma State at home. With the win, the Cougars improved to 2-3 in conference play, 11-5 overall, and on the bubble of the March Madness picture.

On Saturday night, BYU will look to win its first road game of the season at rival Utah. The game against Utah tips off a critical two-game stretch for BYU. After taking on the Utes, BYU will travel to Colorado to take on the Colorado Buffaloes.

According to KenPom, the games at Utah and Colorado are tossup games. BYU lost a pair of tossup games against Texas Tech and TCU that put them on the outside of the NCAA Tournament projections. This time around, BYU needs to win at least one of the two tossup games. Winning both would put BYU at 4-3 in conference play and firmly back on the fringe of an NCAA Tournament bubble.

The next three games, in particular, will determine whether BYU will be within reach of an at-large birth by the end of the month.

BYU has a lighter stretch of games upcoming, at least relative to a typical Big 12 conference schedule.

After taking on Utah and Colorado, the Cougars return home to take on Cincinnati in a game they will be favored to win according to KenPom.

Before this week, we said BYU needed to go 3-1 over the next four games to get back within striking distance of an at-large bid. BYU took care of business against Oklahoma State in the first of those four games. Using KenProm win probabilities, here are BYU's chances of going 3-1 or 4-0 over that four-game stretch

4-0: 16%
3-1: 41%
2-2: 34%
1-3: 9%

Through eight conference games last season, BYU was 4-4. KenPom gives BYU a 57% chance to be 4-4 or better after eight games this season.

If BYU is going to go on a run over the next few weeks, they need to find a player that can score in game-winning situations. That's been the difference between winning and losing in games against Ole Miss, Texas Tech, and TCU.