How Much Higher Can BYU Basketball Rise in NCAA Tournament Seeding?

BYU hoops wrapped up the regular season the way the basketball gods intended: beating your rival on Senior night in front of a sellout crowd. Now as the weather begins to change to Spring, our attention turns toward Kansas City and the Big 12 tournament.

BYU has made a miraculous run up the projected NCAA tournament bracket and will have one more chance to build its resume and avoid the 5/6 seed line that has plagued BYU and so many others over the past few years. But how much higher can they realistically climb? Let’s turn to Wacketology to find out. For a refresher on Wacketology and how it works, read our overview here. And now, spreadsheets!

Where is BYU now?

BYU wacketology as of 3/9/2025 — Joe Wheat

Joe Lunardi sent a shockwave through BYU social media when he jumped BYU from a 7-seed to a 5-seed after Saturday's quad 2 win over Utah. If recent play is taken into consideration, that shouldn’t be a surprise. BYU has been the 7th best team in the country since January 21st according to Bart Torvik and second best since February 11th. If the whole season is taken into consideration, though, that climb may be a little steep.

As of Saturday night, BYU is a projected 6-seed in our bracket but is only two spots away from climbing to a 5-seed. BYU is roughly one game back of Kentucky and Oregon, and if either team makes an early exit from their respective conference tournaments, there will be a definitive opportunity to climb.

How high can BYU climb?

BYU basketball center Keba Keita rises up for a dunk against Kansas State | BYU Photo

The table below shows the average, maximum, and minimum Wacketology scores for the 4-7 seeds in the last 3 NCAA tournaments.

Based on this, BYU has some work to do in Kansas City if they want to achieve their highest seed since the Jimmer era. In the best-case scenario where BYU wins the Big 12 title (why not us?), BYU would earn a Wacketology score of 47.62, which is right in line with historical 4-seeds on Selection Sunday. Two wins puts BYU at 43.65, right on line with an average 5-seed. One win, and BYU earns a 40.48, which would be higher than any 6-seed in the last 3 years.

If you fell asleep during that last paragraph, BYU should comfortably earn a 5-seed with at least one win in the Big 12 tournament. If they mess around and win the whole thing, they could realistically climb as high as a 4-seed.

How far can they fall?

BYU basketball is one of four teams participating in the 2024 Rady Children's Invitational in San Diego — Isaac Hale, Deseret News

The good news is BYU is probably locked into a 6-seed whether they win a game or not. A loss in the quarterfinal would give BYU a Wacketology score of 37.30 which is significantly higher than the 6-seed average and higher than last year’s BYU Wacketology score that earned BYU the 17th overall seed. If BYU falls further than that, there were either complications related to Sunday play or a few teams behind them that make a Cinderella run.

So rest easy, Cougar fans, there is really nowhere else to go but up.