KenPom Predicts BYU vs Texas in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament

The Cougars and the Longhorns will square off in the NCAA Tournament

Mar 12, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) protects the ball from Houston Cougars guard Milos Uzan (7) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

BYU finally knows who its opponent will be in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. On Tuesday, the 11-seed Texas Longhorns survived a late run from NC State to advance to the round of 64. The Cougars and the Longhorns will play each other for the first time since 2024 when the two teams were in the Big 12 together.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Texas. KenPom gives BYU a 60% chance to win with a projected final score of 84-81.

BYU is currently ranked no. 23 in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 10th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 57th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Texas ranks 37th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 18th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 95th. On paper, BYU has been much better on the defensive end since the Texas Tech game.

The Cougars will face one of their toughest challenge in stopping a Texas offense that can really score. When BYU is on offense, they should be able to score as well. The Longhorns have struggled to get defensive stops, even more so than BYU.

Before losing 8 out of 11 games, BYU's defense ranked inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars' defensive rating plummeted to the low 70's, signaling the issues that they had on that end of the floor during the middle stretch of Big 12 play. BYU's defensive efficiency has improved back to 57th over the last two weeks.

To beat Texas, BYU will have to track down rebounds. Besides getting to the free throw line, Texas doesn't have an elite skill on offense. They rely on extra offensive possessions and relentlessly attacking the rim.

The three-point line will probably be the x factor in this game. BYU has struggled to limit three-point shots all season long. Texas isn't very efficient from three - the Longhorns rank 132nd in three-point shooting percentage allowed. On the defensive end, Texas is one of the worst defenses in the country at defending the three. The Longhorns rank 301st in three-point percentage allowed.

The team that is able to capitalize and hit open threes will have a major advantage in this game. As far as paint scoring goes, both teams are able to attack the rim and score down low.

If BYU is able to contest threes and get out in transition, Texas will have a really hard time slowing down AJ Dybantsa and the BYU offensive attack.