KenPom Predicts Late-Night Showdown Between BYU and UCF

On Tuesday night, BYU will look to start its first winning streak without Richie Saunders in the lineup. The Cougars are coming off their best win of the season over no. 6 Iowa State. Now that BYU has a signature win, the Cougars are looking to continue the momentum against UCF. UCF is currently on the right side of the bubble. A win over BYU would elevate UCF off and bubble and firmly into the NCAA Tournament field. There is plenty of motivation for both sides in this game.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs UCF. KenPom gives BYU an 84% chance to win with a projected final score of 89-78.

Per KenPom, the UCF game is the easiest game remaining on BYU's schedule. After UCF, the Cougars will hit the road for a tough road trip before returning to host Texas Tech in the regular season finale.

BYU is currently ranked no. 21 in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 8th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 42nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. UCF ranks 49th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 35th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 113th. On paper, BYU should be able to generate a lot of offense. This game will come down to BYU's defense and whether they can generate enough stops.

Before losing five out of six games, BYU's defense ranked inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars' dropped to as low as 54th, signaling the issues that they have had on that end of the floor over the last few weeks. BYU's defense is back up to 42nd after a pair of solid outings against Arizona and Iowa State.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

vs UCF: 84% (BYU win probability)
@ West Virginia: 61%
@ Cincinnati: 61%
vs Texas Tech: 60%

The Cougars have a manageable slate ahead of them with a lot of tossup games. KenPom predicts BYU will go 2.7-1.3 in its final 4 games. That would put BYU's projected record for the full season at 22.7-8.3.

Projected Win Totals

BYU has already won 20 games. With four games remaining, BYU could win as many as 24 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 22, 23, or even 24 wins.

21 wins: 99.1%
22 wins: 89.6%
23 wins: 59.3%
24 wins: 19.0%

BYU's odds for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament had taken a nose dive over the last three weeks. A pivotal win over Iowa State gives BYU the chance to claw back into the territory of a top-five seed. As of this writing, BYU is a projected 6-seed per Joe Lunardi.