3 Key Stats Giving No. 11 BYU the Edge Against Colorado State

These three metrics give BYU the edge against Colorado State

BYU RB LJ Martin against Arizona | BYU Photo

On Saturday, no. 11 BYU takes on Colorado State on the road. On paper, Colorado State could pose a threat to BYU, especially on offense. The Rams rank 21 nationally averaging 46.5 points per game and 12th nationally in yards per game.

In this article, we will look beyond the score and point to three areas where the advanced metrics give BYU the edge. Every week in our weekly data run, we identify the five key matchups on both sides of the ball (see the chart below). We will explore the top three areas where the advanced metrics give BYU the edge and what it means for Saturday's matchup.

Key matchups - BYU vs Colorado State | BYU On SI | Data Credit: College Football Data

1. BYU is an explosive offense going up against a CSU defense that gives up explosive plays

When BYU's first-string offense has been on the field, it has been explosive. The Cougars rank 23rd nationally in explosive play rate. BYU's explosive attack is led by quarterback Bear Bachmeier who ranks 10th nationally in explosive play rate among FBS quarterbacks.

Colorado State, meanwhile, has been one of the worst teams in terms of preventing explosive plays. The Rams rank 131st in explosive plays allowed. In particular, Colorado State has struggled to prevent explosive plays on the ground. The Rams rank 135th in explosive run plays allowed and BYU is, by far, the best rushing attack Colorado State will have faced this season.

BYU offense against the Colorado State defense | BYU On SI | Data Credit: College Football Data

To add further context, the BYU offense ranks 25th nationally in yards per play, and Colorado State ranks 122nd in yards per play allowed. The Rams have relied on forcing turnovers to prevent points. To their credit, they have been very good at forcing takeaways where they rank 1st nationally. However, BYU has been good at protecting the football. The Cougars have no giveaways this season. If Colorado State can't stop drives by forcing turnovers, they will be in trouble.

BYU will be able to move the football against the Rams. On what could be a rainy evening in Fort Collins, the better rushing team will have an advantage. On paper, BYU is the better team on the ground.

2. Boom-or-Bust Colorado State offense

Through two games, Colorado State ranks 17th in yards per play and 22nd in points per drive. When you dig into the CSU offense, however, a trend emerges: they have been boom or bust. The Rams rank 79th in 3-and-out rate. On 23% of their drives, the Rams have failed to gain a first down. Meanwhile, BYU has forced a three-and-out on 50% of its non-garbage-time drives which ranks 9th in college football.

BYU defense against the Colorado State offense | BYU On SI | Data Credit: College Football Data

It's important to caveat that BYU's three-and-out rate is boosted by a dominant performance against Utah Tech. Against Arizona, BYU had a much harder time getting off the field and forced only two Arizona three-and-outs. Still, the CSU offense has gone through moments where they struggle to stay on the field. During those moments in the game, BYU can start to pull away.

Defensively, BYU will have to be careful in this game. When Colorado State's offense gets going, they are capable of gaining yards in bunches. Colorado State ranks fifth in a metric that we invented called No-third-down TD rate. In other words, it measures touchdown drives that avoid third downs altogether. CSU avoided third downs altogether on nearly a third of their touchdown drives (32%) this season. When Colorado State finds a rythm, they will put up points before defenses even hav a chance to get off the field.

Offensive process metrics BYU vs Colorado State | BYU On SI | Data Credit: College Football Data

3. BYU Should Be Able to Stay Ahead of the Sticks

If there has been one area where the BYU offense needs to improve, it's been staying on the field. The BYU offense ranks 83th in three-and-out rate. Even against Utah Tech, the Cougars had a handful of three-and-outs.

We believe that trend should improve for BYU against Colorado State. BYU ranks 9th in success rate on offense and Colorad State ranks 92nd in success rate allowed. Success rate essentially measures how well a team stays ahead of the sticks and avoids long third downs.

Said differently, BYU is one of the best offenses in college football in staying on schedule, and Colorado State struggles to keep offenses off schedule.

The matchup that favors BYU's offense the most is the run game. Given BYU's size and strength in the run game, it's hard to stuff BYU's run game. The Cougars rank 11th in stuff rate allowed. CSU ranks 124th in stuff rate on defense. The data suggests Colorado State is going to struggle to stop BYU's rushing attack.

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