5 Reasons BYU Can Play Spoiler to Utah's Dream Season

Breaking down BYU's chances to pull off an upset over rival Utah

BYU QB Bear Bachmeier against Arizona State | Jaren Wilkey/BYU

Once BYU joined a Power Four league, it felt inevitable that we would end up with the Holy War with stakes like this one. Absolutely everything one can love about college football will be on full display when BYU takes on Utah on Saturday morning. Rivalry game, in November, top 10 ranks, conference championship on the line, and essentially a play-in game for the College Football Playoff. This is what you dream of.

Of course, it would feel better if both teams were pointing in the same direction. Utah has looked awesome the last two weeks while BYU has looked like a shell of the team that beat Notre Dame two weeks ago. Still, Utah finds itself just a 4.5-point favorite at home. Does BYU have another top five upset in them? Here’s why I think the answer is yes.

1. Utah is vulnerable to explosives

BYU wide receiver Legend Glasker against Arizona State | BYU Photo

Any upset requires that the underdog hit explosives. Utah is awesome down-to-down on defense but ranks 126th in explosive pass play rate and is in the bottom half nationally against the run. Utah blitzes nearly half the time which leaves corners on Islands. If even one guy makes a mistake or misses a tackle, it's trouble. Legend Glasker is the best deep threat Utah will have played so far. Plus, while Utah blitzes nearly 42% of the time, the only get pressure 28% of the time. Bear has been blitzed 44% of the time this year, but has the 4th lowest pressure rate of anyone in the country. If Utah is blitz happy, BYU’s line has proven it will give Bachmeier enough time to exploit Utah down the field.

That aggressiveness also requires that its secondary be left on islands, and if one player makes a mistake on the backend, there is no help.

2. BYU holds the edge in both creating and preventing negative plays

BYU linebacker Cade Uluave pressures Notre Dame QB CJ Carr | Jaren Wilkey/BYU

Despite its aggressiveness, Utah isn’t great getting teams behind the sticks, ranking 63rd in sack rate, 98th in TFLs, and 116th in havoc rate. BYU ranks top 5 nationally in all categories on offense. We’ve said it all season long, but if BYU’s offensive line keeps BYU ahead of the sticks, Bear will move them, assisting in BYU’s 14th best third down conversion percentage this season.

On the other side, though, Utah’s offense is more prone to negative plays than you might think. Utah allows 5.38 tackles for loss per game, good enough for 74th nationally while their offensive line ranks just 43rd nationally in pressure rate allowed at 34.3%. Despite serious struggles tackling this season, BYU still averages nearly 6 tackles for loss per game and has been in position for plenty more. If BYU can find a way to finish plays, the opportunities will be there to move Utah’s offense backwards.

3. Utah hasn't played a P4 defense like BYU's

Keanu Tanuvasa against Arizona | BYU Photo

Utah’s offense is awesome. They rank 10th in total yards, 7th in success rate, and 11th in yards per play. What has yet to be seen is whether that is a function of Utah being awesome or the quality of their opponents. In terms of yards per play, the best P4 defense Utah has played was Colorado at 63rd. Kansas ranks 78th . The other four rank 115th or worse. BYU ranks 13th. In terms of points per drive, the best defense Utah has faced was Houston at 58th, followed by Kansas (60th) and Colorado (73rd). All others rank 97th or worse. BYU ranks 23rd. It can be true that Utah both has an elite offense and a questionable schedule, but we don’t know what they will look like against a defense as good as BYU’s.

BYU, on the other hand, has been tested facing 3 top 50 P4 offenses and 2 inside the top 20. On average, BYU is holding those teams to 1.7 yards per play lower than their season average, including holding top 10 Notre Dame to 4.8 yards per play compared to their 6.6 average. For all the discussion about Utah’s home field advantage, defense travels, and BYU’s is both battle tested and the best Utah will see all season.

4. BYU limits explosives better than anyone

Siale Esera and Faletau Satuala make a tackle against UCF | BYU Photo

What makes Utah’s offense different than it was a year ago is that this year’s model can hit the home run. Utah ranks 11th in explosive play rate, thanks in part to its backfield tandem. One out of every 5 Dampier passes is attempted 20 yards downfield and he's completed the 23rd most. BYU ranks 9th nationally in explosive passes allowed. On the ground, Utah records an explosive run on 20% of carries, thanks in part to Wayshawn Parker who ranks 10th in 15+ yard runs this year with 12. On his other 97 carries, he is averaging 3.5 yards per carry. BYU ranks 23rd at limiting explosive runs with just 23 allowed all season. BYU’s defense has been hit and miss at times this year but so has Utah’s offense. If there is anything we can rely on it’s that BYU doesn’t give up the big play.

5. Everyone has gained yards on this Utah team. BYU can turn those yards into points.

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier scores a touchdown against Notre Dame | BYU Photo

Despite the gaudy down-to-down defensive numbers, Utah’s defense isn’t quite as stingy as in previous years. In conference play, Utah is allowing 385 yards of offense and 6.13 yards per play. That yards per play number would rank 117th nationally over a full season. Utah has managed to keep its points allowed down, though, because they tense up in scoring position. Utah ranks 7th red zone in scoring allowed and 17th in per scoring opportunity (defined as a drive that reaches inside the 40 yard line). BYU, on the other hand, ranks 8th themselves in red zone touchdown percentage and 5th in points per scoring opportunity at 5.4 points. Something has to give in a strength on strength matchup, but BYU is better equipped to convert on the limited chances Utah allows than its previous opponents. If LJ Martin is able to go and be effective the likelihood of that only goes up.  

Prediction

BYU’s path to a win here comes down to three things: tackling, taking care of the football, and converting on scoring opportunities. BYU has struggled in all three at times over the last two weeks, but sloppy play can be attributed more to a lack of focus than a lack of talent. Believe that Utah will have BYU’s full attention.

This will be low scoring as all Holy Wars are. Outside of one game, BYU’s defense has been consistently excellent and held a national championship level offense in Notre Dame to 16 points under its season average. While that was in the comforts of home, Utah’s offense relies far more on explosiveness than Notre Dame’s does, which plays into BYU’s defensive strength.

In that same Notre Dame game, BYU’s offense threw every kitchen appliance at the Irish and had them in a blender nearly the entire night. I expect Aaron Roderick to unload in a similar way on a Utah defense that is prone to coverage busts and poor eye discipline. Unless BYU can manufacture a running game, they won’t find enough consistent success if this game turns into a track meet, but they will generate enough big plays to stay in it with or without LJ Martin.

The question then becomes which quarterback to you trust in a big spot. In that regard, you have to go with Bear Bachmeier. Devon Dampier has one career win over a team that finished or is currently in the CFP rankings (2026 Houston). Bear Bachmeier has four as a true sophomore. Bachmeier has proven time and time again that if you need a drive to win a game for your season, he is the player you want to have the ball in his hands. Unless of course you are a Ute.

Bear Bachmeier against Utah:

• 13/22 (59.1%)
• 166 passing yards
• 1 passing touchdown
• 64 rushing yards
• 1 rushing touchdown

It’s been 2,242 days since Utah beat BYU 🤙
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— Ensign Gridiron (@EnsignGridiron) October 19, 2025

BYU 27-24 Utah