BYU-Baylor Takeaways: Does #10 BYU's Win Solidify Their Place in the CFP?

BYU bounced back from a brutal rivalry week with a 28-7 win over an upstart Baylor team in a game that almost didn’t happen. The Bears encountered two no-fly zones this weekend as they were grounded by the FAA and the BYU secondary in a 24-hour period. BYU’s defense suffocated the Bears offense while the offense coasted after thre straight long touchdown drives to win its toughest remaining test of the season. In weird way, though, BYU’s win was almost secondary to the games surrounding them. Here is what we learned about BYU as a team and where their postseason hopes sit after their most complete game of the season.

1 down, 2 to go

When BYU checked in at 10 in the latest CFP rankings, it became clear that BYU had two jobs: keep winning and look good doing it. BYU took care of both on Saturday against a quality Baylor team which ranked 31st in SP+ coming in to the game, and had lost 3 games by a combined 11 points. No one enjoyed watching that third quarter, but BYU football is getting a lead and sitting on it. On a day where bubble teams like Texas Tech and Wake Forrest picked up quality wins, BYU was dominant enough to stay ahead in that conversation for now, because they have the ultimate trump card with the win over no. 5 Notre Dame. The best news for BYU is that they passed its toughest remaining test with flying colors. If BYU takes care of business the next two weeks, they have a 94% chance to make the playoff even without making the conference title game per ESPN. It would make BYU fans breathe easier if a couple teams around them lose in the coming weeks, but the most important thing for BYU is to do exactly what they did on Saturday.

BYU can make a playoff run with LJ Martin

Close up of BYU running back LJ Martin against the Baylor Bears — BYU Football RB LJ Martin against Baylor | BYU Photo

It is so painfully obvious how much better BYU is with a healthy LJ Martin, that it should stun the college football world that BYU has played so well without him. On BYU’s three drives with Martin, BYU scored three touchdowns, averaged 6.1 yards per play, and was 6/6 on third down. Without him, they scored 1 touchdown on their next 7 drives, including four three-and-outs and 2.3 yards per play. Granted, it's hard to have efficient offense with no running back and a refusal to throw more than 5 yards downfield, but that’s besides the point. For just a moment, we saw just how good BYU’s offense can be with a healthy Martin against a top 20 defense. According to Kalani Sitake, BYU was being overly cautious by pulling Martin after three drives, but BYU better hope he gets healthy for a playoff run. If he is, BYU will do some damage.

BYU’s defense is so, SO good

The praise for BYU’s defense after this performance over Baylor should be as loud as the disrespect they got after laying an egg against UCF. That was a thorough domination of a Baylor offense that was one of the hottest offenses in the country over the last few weeks. Baylor crossed BYU’s 40 yard-line just twice on 9 drives, with their lone touchdown drive coming after Baylor was down 3 scores in the 4th quarter. Excluding garbage time, Baylor had just 8 “successful” plays on 31 tries. BYU pressured DJ Lagway 19 times, sacking him 3 times, and held him to 3/12 passing with a 14.9 pass efficiency rating on throws of 10 yards or more downfield. BYU held Baylor’s running backs to 3 yards per carry with a long of 6 yards. Best of all, BYU missed just 5 tackles all game, by far BYU’s best performance of the season against a P4 opponent. BYU’s defense is peaking at the right time and is doing it without a healthy Evan Johnson or Isaiah Glasker. If BYU makes the playoff, it will be because of what they have done on defense this year.

Bear is clearly lacking confidence

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It ultimately did not matter, but BYU’s pass game was non-existent against Baylor. Bear Bachmeier averaged under 5 yards per attempt and had an average depth of target of just 5.3 yards. A lot of that, though, is a testament to how good Baylor is on the defensive line. Baylor ranks 3rd nationally in sacks this season and pressured Bachmeier on a season high 46.4% of drop backs. Even more alarming is Baylor’s time to pressure was just over 3 seconds. It felt very clear that BYU’s game plan was to not let Baylor’s greatest strength impact the game. Aaron Roderick ran away from that defensive line as often as possible, stretching the field with outside runs and quick screens to keep BYU ahead of the sticks and allow BYU to sustain long touchdown drives early on. In retrospect, that was probably the right call.

JOJO WALKS IT IN!!

📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/d92eUabSJA
— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) November 15, 2026

That said, when the pressure did get home, Bachmeier was rattled, completing just 4/11 passes for 44 yards. He clearly never got into a rhythm and missed open throws he ordinarily hits, including a wide open TD to Lyons and back-to-back open throws before the half. However, there are things to build on. He had 4 total touchdowns and a 92 QBR, his second highest of the season. His scrambling kept BYU drives alive and ultimately led to his one touchdown pass on a great tight-window throw to Jojo Phillips. His deep ball to Walker Lyons on the first drive was also one of his best throws of the year. The downfield passing is still in there. He just needs to build some confidence.

Once BYU got up big, the right thing to do was get other guys experience and leave as healthy as possible

Everyone would have liked BYU to score 40, but once BYU was up 21-0 at halftime, parking the bus and building and using the game as live practice reps was the right call. BYU experimented with a myriad of different personnel groupings, including playing 9 different linemen, 4 different running backs, 5 different receivers, and 2 different tight ends. BYU was able to get talented freshmen like Jaron Pula and Devaughn Eka a combined 26 snaps combined which could pay dividends down the road, especially if Eka can fill the void at RB2 with Martin and Moa still dealing with injuries. It wasn’t a pretty second half, but it was the right one, especially if BYU plans on extending its season beyond the next two games.

This win should theoretically clinch BYU’s spot in the CFP unless they encounter some generational bad luck

CFP field (teams that would have to play their way out)

Georgia
Alabama
Texas
Tennessee

Indiana
UCLA

Miami

Utah

Notre Dame

Boise State

Two spots for …
BYU
Texas Tech
Wake Forest
Iowa
Oregon
— Ralph D. Russo (@ralphDrussoATH) November 15, 2026

BYU didn’t get a ton of help, but they got enough for BYU to not stress about the playoff for now. Houston, Arizona, and Baylor were effectively eliminated from Big 12 contention while Arizona played well enough to hopefully stay in the top 25. Houston’s loss to 3-6 Colorado devalues Texas Tech’s best win by a lot, and will likely leave them in “win the Big 12 or be left out” territory. No. 11 Kentucky lost to unranked Florida and will likely have zero wins over ranked teams when the rankings are released. After these results, BYU is probably in the field unless an epic parlay hits around them.

Based on ESPN’s playoff predictor, BYU has a 54% chance to make the playoff followed by Texas Tech at 53.4%. The next closest team after that is 3-loss Oregon at 27%. BYU’s biggest remaining threats to be jumped come from #13 Wake Forrest and #12 Texas Tech. While both looked dominant against quality opponents, so did BYU. In a way, both appear to be playing the BYU and Notre Dame role from last year while BYU sits in the Miami position. Wake Forrest looks as dominant as Notre Dame did against a weak ACC schedule last year but, much like Notre Dame, does not have the signature win to go with a multi-score loss to the only projected playoff team they’ve played. Texas Tech is surging, but their resume took a hit as every ranked win they have lost this week. They could realistically finish 11-1 and still have to win the Big 12, as the have few quality wins to overcome a multi-score loss to Cincinnati, who is even with UCF in FPI. BYU, on the other hand, has the ultimate tiebreaker with a win over top 5 Notre Dame this year. With that win, BYU earned a mulligan for one of their losses and should be fine unless every team ahead of them wins out and the two teams behind them win their conference championships. If that happens, BYU is truly generationally cursed. If not, BYU will hear its name called on selection Sunday.

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