Sunday Notebook How Saturday's Games Impact BYU's CFP Hopes

On Saturday, BYU cruised to a 28-7 win over Baylor. With the win over Baylor, BYU remained firmly in the Big 12 title and College Football Playoff hunt. This college football season has been defined by chaos, yet on Saturday, chaos took the day off. The top 13 teams in the CFP rankings went 12-1. In this notebook, we're doing a deep dive into Saturday's results and how they impacted BYU's CFP hopes.

No Opportunities to Move Up After Saturday

At no. 10 in the rankings, BYU is firmly on the CFP bubble. The only way to get out of the bubble? Win out and hope a few teams in front of you slip up. Unfortunately for BYU, there were chances to move up the rankings, but none of them came to fruition. No. 6 Texas miraculously escaped at LSU even though Arch Manning threw three interceptions. LSU missed a 38-yard field goal before halftime that was the difference in that game.

No. 7 Miami was in a one-score game with Duke in the second half before pulling away. No. 8 Tennessee trailed Texas A&M at halftime before pulling away in the second half. USC dropped four interceptions against no. 9 Indiana and missed two field goals. One of the wildest stats from that game: USC dropped three easy interceptions...in the end zone.

Outside of a Kentucky loss - more on that in a moment - this weekend was a missed opportunity. BYU's ceiling going into Tuesday's reveal is no. 10. On paper, this weekend was the best opportunity for chaos. BYU only needs to move up a spot or two to be safely in the field. Instead, they will be sweating it out over the last two weeks of the season. The Cougars love to keep games close instead of pulling away late, why would the first playoff berth in program history be any different?

Three Teams for Two At-Large Spots

There were two results that really benefitted BYU: no. 11 Kentucky lost to unranked Florida and no. 14 Houston lost to Colorado. The Wildcats and the (red) Cougars are no longer on the playoff bubble, which means there are three teams competing for the last two at-large spots: no. 10 BYU, no. 12 Texas Tech, and no. 13 Wake Forest. No. 15 Iowa and no. 16 Oregon will move up the rankings on Tuesday, but we don't believe they are a legitimate threat to leapfrog BYU at this point.

Here's the bad news: Wake Forest and Texas Tech had statement road wins over the weekend. The Demon Deacons put the country on notice with a blowout win over 6-2 SMU and Texas Tech crushed an Oklahoma State team that the committee respected enough to rank last week. It was really, really important that BYU beat Baylor in convincing fashion to keep pace with those two teams and that's exactly what happened.

Sorry, one more bit of bad news before we get to the good news: BYU is the only team of the three that doesn't control its destiny. If both Texas Tech and Wake Forest win out and win their conference championships, they will earn guaranteed spots in the playoff. Despite having the best win of the three teams, BYU doesn't control its destiny and that's not where you want to be with two weeks remaining.

Here's the good news: the committee ranked BYU two spots ahead of those teams last week, so the Cougars are starting the final stretch in pole position. Despite looking dominant, Wake Forest has zero wins over ranked teams. Just ask 2025 BYU if that's a playoff-worthy resume. BYU went 11-1 and had two top 25 wins and was on the outside looking in. The reason why the committee didn't respect BYU in 2025 was because in two games against the only playoff team they played, BYU was uncompetitive. Wake Forest hosted Miami earlier this year and was uncompetitive. We believe that will hold more weight than a blowout win over - frankly - a mediocre SMU team. There's a reason the Mustangs weren't ranked despite a 6-2 record going into that game.

And Texas Tech? Their resume got worse this weekend. Their win over Houston isn't nearly as impressive after Houston was embarrassed by Colorado. Oklahoma State won't sniff the rankings at 6-4, and Arizona might drop out of the top 25 after a close loss to no. 2 Utah. At best, Tech could have two wins over teams in the 20-25 range. We learned last year that is not a playoff resume in the eyes of this committee.

Why Tuesday's Rankings Are So Important

Tuesday's rankings are really important. In fact, we could learn whether BYU still has the inside track to make the CFP, or not, on Tuesday. Beating Oklahoma State was the last chance for Texas Tech to make a statement this season. The Red Raiders close the regular season against Baylor and TCU who BYU has already handled.

Wake Forest will end the regular season against Georgia Tech and Duke. The committee probably won't reward for winning those games even in blowout fashion, so their road game at SMU was a chance to make a statement.

BYU doesn't have a chance to add another signature win to its resume, either. In other words, the hay is already in the barn for these three teams. The resumes this week won't be very different from the resumes at the end of the season.

BYU has a top five win which may be the trump card in this debate. BYU proved that it can compete with the best teams in the sport in that game.

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There are three scenarios. If BYU is still ranked ahead of these two teams on Tuesday, it means BYU has the inside track to make the CFP. In the first scenario, BYU would only need one of those two to lose their conference championship games and BYU would be in.

If BYU is leapfrogged by one of these teams, the Cougars will be one spot away from the cut line and will be sweating out the result of the championship game of the team ranked right behind them. If BYU is leapfrogged by both teams, it means BYU would need one of Indiana, Texas Tech, or Wake Forest to slip up over the last two weeks to have a chance. That would be the worst-case scenario for Tuesday's rankings.

For what it's worth, ESPN's Heather Dinich has been dialed in on this committee and what to expect from their rankings. She projected BYU to stay at no. 10 after Saturday.

Because of the win over Notre Dame, I believe BYU will stay in front of those two teams. I believe the committee will treat Texas Tech or Wake Forest like it did BYU last season: they have to win the championship to be in. Fair or not, that is consistent with the committee's track record.

Yes, BYU has a bad loss at UCF but Texas Tech has a worse loss at Cincinnati. Wake Forest doesn't have a bad loss, but they don't have a signature win, either. The committee forgave Alabama for a bad loss at Florida State last season because the Tide had a top five win over Georgia. BYU is one of only four teams with a top five win this season. That really moves the needle.

What Are the Odds BYU Gets Some Help?

So, what are the odds at this point that BYU gets some help from the teams around them? I believe there are only three teams ahead of BYU that would drop below the Cougars with a loss at this point: no. 7 Miami, no. 8 Tennessee, and no. 9 Indiana. Between those three teams to the two bubble teams (Texas Tech and Wake Forest), there are five teams that could help BYU by losing.

With two weeks to go, here are the odds that those teams win both of their final regular season games per ESPN FPI:

No. 7 Miami: 95%
No. 8 Tennessee: 44%
No. 9 Indiana: 74%
No. 12 Texas Tech: 49%
No. 13 Wake Forest: 69%

The data says there is only a 10% chance that all five teams win out. BYU only needs to move up one spot to be safely in the playoff, so there is a 90% chance that BYU will get some help if it wins out. However, this upcoming weekend is when BYU needs to get help.

Next Saturday is the day to watch. Tennessee plays LSU and Texas Tech plays Baylor on the road. Those two games are the primary reasons why BYU will most likely get some help, at least according to the data. There is a 21% chance that those five teams will this upcoming. There is a 48% chance that all five will win the following weekend. If BYU doesn't get in week 12, the odds of getting help in the final weekend of the regular season is a coin flip (48%).

A Three-Team Race for the Big 12 Title

There is only one way to earn an automatic bid to the playoff and that is by winning the Big 12. The Big 12 is officially a three-team race after last weekend. Per FPI, there is a 99.8% chance that either Utah, Texas Tech, or BYU will win the league. Utah is practically a lock to make the conference championship game, and Texas Tech is two wins away from the title game.

If Texas Tech slips up, BYU would beat Texas Tech in a tiebreaker and it would be a Holy War rematch in the conference title game.

Since Texas Tech has a 49% chance to win out, it's practically a coin flip whether BYU goes to Arlington or not, assuming BYU wins out.

There is a scenario where BYU could make the title game and beat Utah. If BYU beats the Utes in the championship game, BYU could surge up the rankings and host a first round playoff game. A loss in the title game may put BYU's at-large hopes at risk. At this point, however, any scenario where BYU could control its destiny is a good scenario.

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