BYU's CFP Hopes Are at Stake in the Big 12 Title Game

BYU RB LJ Martin runs the football against Texas Tech | BYU Photo

On Saturday, no. 11 BYU will take on no. 4 Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. Despite an 11-1 record and a resume that is worthy of a playoff spot, BYU goes into this game on the outside looking in at the playoff.

ESPN's playoff predictor gives BYU a 99.9% chance to make the playoff with a win. With a loss, BYU's playoff hopes drop to 0.8%. In other words, it's win or go home for the Cougars against Texas Tech. What would have to happen for BYU to make the playoff with a loss to Texas Tech? Probably a narrow loss to Texas Tech combined with a Georgia blowout win over Alabama.

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— BYU Cougars (@BYUCougars) December 6, 2025

BYU's lone loss this season came at Texas Tech. The game was lopsided and the Cougars never threatened to win in a 29-7 loss. BYU's performance in that game is the reason why the committee is undervaluing the Cougars relative to their resume.

If BYU is going to have a chance for a different outcome in the rematch, they will need to play clean football. It was self-inflicted mistakes that prevented BYU from even making the first game competitive. When asked about BYU's low ranking, the committee has not pointed to the metrics. They can't because the metrics suggest BYU should be ranked higher. Instead, they point to the way BYU performed against the Red Raiders.

A win over Texas Tech would be a statement win and would send BYU soaring up the Top 25 rankings.

Most importantly, it's December and BYU has a chance to win the Big 12 in just its third year in the league. Texas Tech, for example, has been in the Big 12 since its inception and Red Raider fans have had to wait until this year to play in their first championship game. A championship game appearance is an important step in BYU's trajectory as a football program.

Expect a healthy contingent of BYU fans at this game. The Cougars hosted a fan fest on Friday night that was attended by thousands of BYU fans. It's not unrealistic to expect 25k+ BYU fans in attendance for BYU's first conference championship game since the 1990's.