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BYU's Bear Bachmeier Shouldn't Win the Heisman - However...

Joe Wheat|
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Iowa State
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Iowa State | BYU Photo

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You can imagine our surprise when we opened X yesterday and found FOX Analyst and former Heisman winner Robert Griffin III’s ranking of Heisman front-runners. There, listed at number five was BYU’s Bear Bachmeier. BYU fans have a reputation for putting every quarterback they have in the Heisman race, but it’s always validating when the national media does it for them.

First off, let us be clear. It’s too early in Bachmeier’s career to be putting him in the upper echelons of sport. That said, it is a bye week, so let's have some fun. Should Bear actually be getting more consideration for the nation’s most prestigious award? Let’s build a case using the three primary Heisman metrics: Statistics, Wins, and Moments.

Statistics

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Iowa State
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Iowa State | BYU Photo

While Bear’s passing statistics might not stand up to the top Heisman contenders, his total impact might just put him in that tier. Let's look at some blind resumes real quick:

QB A

Total yards: 2,156

Total TDs: 20

Total Turnovers: 5

QB B                            

Total yards: 1,872

Total TDs: 19

Total Turnovers: 3

QB C

Total yards: 2,101

Total TDs: 20

Total Turnovers: 3

The three quarterbacks above are Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, and Bear Bachmeier, respectively. The former two quarterbacks are two of the top four betting favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. Bear Bachmeier is not. Should he be? Probably not. But make no mistake, his numbers are extremely impressive for any quarterback, let alone a true freshman. Bachmeier averages more yards per attempt than Alabama’s Ty Simpson, has a higher QBR than Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, and has accounted more total touchdowns than Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, all of which are in the top four of Heisman odds. It gets more impressive when you consider it took Bachmeier a couple weeks to get going.

Over his last six games, Bear Bachmeier has posted a QBR of 83.3, which would rank 11th nationally and ahead of Heisman contenders like Pavia and Simpson. Over those same six games, Bachmeier is averaging 298 total yards per game, more than every quarterback in the top five of Heisman odds.

Winning

BYU QB Bear Bachmeier scores a touchdown in overtime against Arizona
BYU QB Bear Bachmeier scores a touchdown in overtime against Arizona | BYU Photo

In order to win the Heisman trophy, you have to contribute to winning football. 11 of the last 12 Quarterbacks to win the prestigious award did it in a season where their teams won at least 10 games. That continues to matter this season. Of the five remaining undefeated P4 teams, 4 have quarterbacks ranked in the top 10 of Heisman odds. BYU is only team that doesn’t. And maybe they should? BYU is winning football games, but they are also doing it against a similar strength of schedule to three of the other four. BYU ranks 47th in average strength of schedule, compared to Ohio State's 40th, Indiana’s 44th, and Georgia Tech’s 71st. The best part is that Bachmeier seems to be at his best against the best defenses he plays. Against top 50 opponents in FPI’s defensive efficiency, Bachmeier averages 302 total yards per game, nearly 7 yards per play, and 2.4 total touchdowns.

Heisman Moments

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier scores a touchdown against Utah
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier scores a touchdown against Utah | BYU Photo

Every Heisman winner has a Heisman moment. From Lamar Jackson's hurdle vs Syracuse to Johnny Manziel's upset at Alabama, you have to have a the highlight package to show at the ceremony. In this “metric”, take your pick. BYU’s propensity to play in close games doesn’t help the heart health of their fans, but it definitely lends itself to late-game heroics from its true freshman quarterback. Bachmeier has orchestrated second half comebacks in four of BYU’s last five games, and accounted for the game-winning touchdown in three. Against Arizona, Bachmeier tied the game with 19 seconds left and put the game away with a 7-yard touchdown run in the second overtime. Against bitter rival Utah, he literally dragged 8 defenders into the end zone enroute to a 22-yard 4th quarter touchdown on 3rd and 10. Against Iowa State, Bachmeier led a 14-point comeback punctuated by a 27-yard 3rd down touchdown pass with a blitzer in his face. Unfortunately, “clutch” isn’t a stat that is readily available, but if there has been a quarterback more clutch than Bachmeier this season, please show them to us.

Conclusion

We can readily acknowledge that Bachmeier is not and probably should not be in the Heisman conversation… yet. Bachmeier’s stats aren’t quite eye-popping enough to overcome the Big Ten/SEC bias, and he hasn’t been around long enough to have an established reputation like Diego Pavia or Georgia Tech’s Haynes King. That said, if Bachmeier is instrumental in pulling out wins against Texas Tech and Cincinnati, it might be time to start a conversation. Even now, Bachmeier’s aura is starting to go national. He earned the Manning Award quarterback of the week following his performance versus Iowa State and found his way onto FOX Broadcaster Gus Johnson’s “GOT IT” team. So, while we may not be ready to have that conversation yet, this kid’s story is just getting started.

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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.

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