BYU's Metrics Rebound Ahead of The College Football Playoff Rankings Release

BYU WR Parker Kingston scores a touchdown against TCU | BYU Photo

BYU bounced back in a huge way Saturday night, destroying a solid TCU team by 31 in BYU’s penultimate home game. Time will tell how the playoff committee views BYU after a win like that, but hopefully the changes in their metrics prove instructive.

How the AP Voters view BYU

All AP voter ballots for week 13: pic.twitter.com/0O83mB7bav

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) November 16, 2025

BYU moved up a spot to 11th this week as Texas took a tumble after their third loss of the season. The Cougars were narrowly edged out by Alabama who had 1,062 voting points to BYU’s 992. One has to wonder, though, what certain pollsters are looking for in regards to BYU. Nine voters ranked BYU 13th or lower despite their strength of record clearly being that of a top 10 team. More on that later. BYU also earned the respect of 17 voters that had them in their top 10 with the remainder voting BYU at 11th. Alabama’s drop from 4th to 10th is instructive, though, as the CFP rankings tend to closely mirror the AP poll. Oklahoma’s win over Bama assured that they will be in the bracket barring a catastrophic loss, but BYU could potentially jump Alabama if the committee realizes that losses count, whether they are in week 1 or week 12.

How the predictive metrics view BYU

NEW: Updated ESPN FPI after week 12 of the College Football season📈📉https://t.co/GboMnUpXDg pic.twitter.com/fFNoXGgZOb

— On3 (@On3sports) November 16, 2025

Definition: Predictive metrics measure absolute strength of a team relative to the average team. Similar ratings are used by sports books to generate betting spreads.

SP+: 17

FPI: 14

KFord: 15

FEI: 15

Average: 15.25 (Prior week: 19.0)

BYU’s drubbing of TCU Saturday completely made up for the loss to Texas Tech as far as BYU’s power ratings are concerned. BYU’s average ranking of 15.25 and rating of 18.2 points above average are both season highs and are indicative of a team who is worthy of playoff consideration. While a 15.25 average might not look like much given their record, in perspective of past BYU teams, there is a real argument that this is the best BYU football team this century. In fact, it probably wouldn’t be a hard one to make. Based on FEI’s metrics, 2025 BYU would be at least a 10-point favorite over every BYU team since 2007 except for 2020 and 2024. The 2025 team would still be a 4.5-point favorite against last year's version. This team also joins the 2020 and 2024 teams as the only ones to be rated in the top 15 over that 18-year span.

From an offensive perspective, BYU is a top 20 offense in terms of efficiency despite playing the 6th hardest defensive schedule in the country this season per FEI. On defense, BYU’s 15.2 average ranking is still the highest rated group since the 2012 team that featured multiple NFL pro bowlers. This BYU team is darn good. No way around that. Their win over what was a top 30 power rated team in TCU at the time confirms that, and their power rating tends to agree.

What do the resume-based metrics say?

🚨Week 13 Most Deserving Rankings🚨 pic.twitter.com/HVvBcvl90k

— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) November 18, 2025

Definition: Resume based metrics compare the teams performance to how the average top 10 team would have performed against the same schedule. They measure not only strength of schedule, but how a team performs against that schedule.

SP+: 10

FPI (SOR): 6

KFord: 6

FEI: 6

Average: 7.0 (Prior: 10.25)

If BYU finds itself on the outside of the top 10 of the next college football playoff rankings, it will be an outrage based on their resume. Based on SP+, BYU has a stronger strength of schedule (22) than Indiana (30), Ohio State (53), Texas A&M (60), Oregon (32), Notre Dame (23), and Ole Miss (42). Based on FPI, they have a stronger strength of record than Oregon, Alabama, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame. And yet, BYU will likely find itself ranked behind all of those teams. BYU’s loss to Texas Tech certainly hurts their national perception some, but Texas Tech is a top 3 team in SP+. Meanwhile, BYU also has wins over 5 top 50 teams in SP+ including multi-touchdown wins over TCU (46), ECU (42), and Iowa State (41), a road win against Arizona (33) and a rivalry win over Utah (8). Notre Dame and Oregon have 5 top 50 wins combined.

The nice thing about strength of record is that it reevaluates the totality of a team’s resume each week. The CFP dropping BYU to 12 last week was a bit punitive based on their SOR metrics but it was understandable. This week, BYU’s resume looks a lot different. Not only did BYU have a dominant win over a bowl eligible team, Texas Tech and Utah continue to dominate while wins over Arizona and ECU are aging like fine wine. Tonight’s ranking will be a huge indicator of whether the Committee takes the same re-evaluation approach, or if the quality of past wins and losses are set in stone the moment they occur.

Conclusion

BYU WR Parker Kingston scores a touchdown against TCU | BYU Photo

The most likely outcome for BYU is that they move to 11 in the CFP rankings, which means they will need some help if they want a shot to make the playoff as an at-large. Naturally, BYU still needs to take care of business the next two weeks, but if they do, an 11-1 BYU team should 100% find its way in, whether they win the Big 12 championship or not, based on every metric the committee claims to be using. BYU is 9-1 against a top 25 strength of schedule. Hard to imagine a world where a team like that is on the outside looking in.