Cougs Daily

Can BYU Quarterbacks Replace Jake Retzlaff's Production?

Casey Lundquist|
BYU quarterbacks McCae Hillstead (left) and Treyson Bourguet (right) at BYU Spring camp
BYU quarterbacks McCae Hillstead (left) and Treyson Bourguet (right) at BYU Spring camp | BYU Photo

In this story:

BYU Cougars

One year after Jake Retzlaff beat out Gerry Bohannon in a heated quarterback battle, BYU is back in the quarterback battle business. While Jake Retzlaff is in the process of finding a new school, BYU will be looking for a new starting quarterback. The quarterback battle between McCae Hillstead, Treyson Bourguet, and Bear Bachmeier will be the top storyline of Fall camp.

Both Hillstead and Bourguet have starting experience. Thanks to that starting experience, we can look back at Jake Retzlaff's 2024 season and compare it to the 2023 seasons of Treyson Bourguet and McCae Hillstead. Can Bourguet or Hillstead replicate Retzlaff's 2024 production? It depends. Welcome to the most comprehensive deep dive into the production of BYU quarterbacks on the internet. Let's dive in.

One of these Offensive Lines is Not Like the Others

First, we need to get to an important caveat as we dive into these numbers. McCae Hillstead played behind the worst offensive line among the three quarterbacks - and it wasn't close. The Utah State offensive line was bad.

In 2024, Jake Retzlaff was pressured on 28% of dropbacks. Treyson Bourguet was pressured on 27% of dropbacks in 2023. McCae Hillstead, meanwhile, was pressured on 39% of dropbacks. Hillstead faced more pressure than 83% of college quarterbacks (min. 100 dropbacks).

It's no secret that quarterbacks are worse under pressure. Therefore, Hillstead's production is skewed by a terrible offensive line. For most metrics, we will compare these quarterbacks and their production when they are under pressure vs when they are kept clean. That will help us strip out the impact of a bad Utah State offensive line.

Accuracy and Aggressiveness

First, let's turn to PFF to look at accuracy and agressiveness. Jake Retzlaff's accuracy rate (aka adjusted completion percentage) was 70.3% in 2024. That was in the 44th percentile in 2024. Retzlaff was never the most accurate quarterback and he never had a remarkable completion percentage. However, he was willing to push the ball downfield. His average depth of target was in the 84th percentile. In other words, Retzlaff's completion percentage was about where you would expect based on his tendency to throw downfield.

Hillstead was similar to Retzlaff in a few different ways. He liked to push the ball downfield and he had an adjusted completion percentage of 67.5%. When Hillstead was in a clean pocket, he was on target 73% of the time compared to 74.9% for Retzlaff. In the chart below, you can see Hillstead's tendency to be more aggressive and, as a result, less accurate than the average college football quarterback. Remember, Hillstead was a true freshman in 2023. Could he close the gap and play at Retzlaff's '24 levels with more years of development? It's certainly possible, as the data suggests the gap isn't as wide as you might think.

BYU Quarterbacks Jake Retzlaff, Treyson Bourguet, and McCae Hillstead compared to other college football quarterbacks
BYU Quarterbacks Jake Retzlaff, Treyson Bourguet, and McCae Hillstead compared to other college football quarterbacks | BYU On S

The Retzlaff comparisons don't end there for McCae Hillstead. Like Retzlaff, Hillstead was not great under pressure. His adjusted completion percentage was 52.5% under pressure compared to 52.9% for Retzlaff. That was something Retzlaff was working to improve during Spring camp, and it's something Hillstead will need to improve if he wants to win the job and keep the job.

Treyson Bourguet's numbers were outliers, and unfortunately, not in a good way. Bourguet's adjusted completion percentage was 58.2%. That was worse than 99% of college football quarterbacks in 2024. Bourguet didn't push the ball downfield either, his average depth of target was in the 10th percentile. Despite being more conservative, Bourguet struggled with accuracy in short and intermediate throws. The end result was bad offense.

Bourguet was young and he has had time to develop. He could be much improved compared to the 2023 version of himself at Western Michigan. If he hasn't made significant strides, it will be an uphill battle for him to not only replace Retzlaff's production, but win the starting job. For context, here is Treyson Bourguet in 2023 compared to Jake Retzlaff in 2023.

Statistical comparison of BYU quarterbacks
Statistical comparison of BYU quarterbacks | BYU On SI

Moving the Chains

When Jake Retzlaff dropped back to pass, he converted a first down 38% of the time. When he dropped back to a clean pocket, he moved the chains 44% of the time. That ranked in the 93rd and 97th percentile, respectively. Retzlaff's primary strength, at least according to the data, was finding ways to get first downs.

On paper, that's the skill that BYU will struggle the most to replace. Both Hillstead and Bourguet struggled in that area in 2023. McCae Hillstead converted first downs on 27% of his dropbacks (16th percentile) and Bourguet converted first downs on 22% of his dropbacks (second worst nationally).

Hillstead's ability to move the chains did improve in a clean pocket, but he was still in the bottom half of college quarterbacks. Whether it was from a clean pocket or under pressure, Bourguet struggled to move the chains.

This is where BYU will need a consistent rushing attack and veteran skill players to step up and help the young quarterback that wins the job, whether it's Hillstead, Bourguet, or Bachmeier.

Escaping Pressure

Another area where BYU will miss Jake Retzlaff? Escaping pressure and moving the ball with his legs. Retzlaff was sacked on just 14.7% of quarterback pressures. That was better than 70% of college quarterbacks. That was a critical ingredient to Retzlaff's ability to stay in the lineup.

For comparison, Hillstead was sacked on 22.7% of dropbacks (21st percentile) and Bourguet was sacked on 24.2% of pressures (15th percentile). Hillstead has excellent straight-line speed, but he wasn't as evasive in '23 as Retzlaff was in '24.

The Utah State offensive line was so bad that there's reason to believe Hillstead could improve in this area. After all, not all quarterbacks pressures are created equal. Still, it looks like there will be a drop-off in that area if Hillstead or Bourguet is under center.

Excluding sack yards, Jake Retzlaff averaged 5.6 yards per carry in 2024. Hillstead and Bourguet averaged 5.0 and 4.0, respectively. However, Hillstead did force the most missed tackles on a per-attempt basis. Retzlaff forced a miss tackle on 14.2% of his attempts. Bourguet forced a missed tackle on 13.8% of his attempts, and Hillstead forced a missed tackle on 18.5% of his attempts. Hillstead has the speed and athleticism to be a good runner, but throwing the football was his primary strength in 2023.

We don't have data on Bear Bachmeier in college yet, but this is an area where Bachmeier could separate himself. Bachmeier is a gifted athlete and he possesses the natural ability to run effectively and escape pressure like Retzlaff. Bachmeier will be the best rushing quarterback on the roster.

Protecting the Football

An area where Retzlaff consistently struggled: protecting the football under pressure. When Retzlaff faced pressure, he was prone to mistakes. This is an area where all three quarterbacks could improve. It's worth noting, however, that Hillstead was slightly better at protecting the football when he was under pressure.

This table looks at the rate of turnover-worthy plays. A turnover-worthy played is defined as "a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling." Retzlaff's turnover-worthy play rate was in the 16th percentile when he was under pressure.

We will look at turnover-worthy plays instead of interceptions. Interception totals can be misleading as they rely on defenders to complete the interception. Turnover-worthy plays effectively measure how often quarterbacks put the ball at risk, whether through the air or on the ground.

Both Retzlaff and Hillstead were above average at protecting the football from a clean pocket. However, Retzlaff played from more clean pockets so his overall numbers are better.

Quarterback

Kept Clean

Under Pressure

Total

'24 Jake Retzlaff

2.6% (83rd percentile)

7.8% (16th percentile)

4.1% (31st percentile)

'23 McCae Hillstead

3.2% (70th percentile)

6.5% (28th percentile)

4.5% (24th percentile)

'23 Treyson Bourguet

5.3% (23rd percentile)

8.3% (13th percentile)

6.1% (6th percentile)

Bourguet struggled to protect the football. His TWP ratio was in the sixth percentile nationally. His numbers were below average both from a clean pocket and a pressured pocket.

Big-Time Throws

PFF defines as big-time throw as "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window." This is an area where both Hillstead and Bourguet were better than Retzlaff. In fact, Hillstead was one of the best quarterbacks nationally at consistently generating big-time throws.

Hillstead was in the 82nd percentile in terms of big-time throws per attempt. From a clean pocket, his numbers were even better. Hillstead made big-time throws on 7.6% of attempts from a clean pocket, better than 95% of college quarterbacks. For perspective, Retzlaff was in the 26th percentile in big-time throws in 2024.

Of the three quarterbacks, Hillstead had the best throwing grade from a clean pocket. It's reasonable to believe that behind a BYU offensive line that is much better than the Utah State offensive line, he could be a very productive quarterback.

One of the most interesting findings in the data was Treyson Bourguet's ability to make big-time throws under pressure. Bourguet had a very respectable 4.9% big-time throw rate overall (77th percentile) . However, he was in the 96th percentile in big-time throw rate under pressure. Bourguet consistently made his best throws under pressure. That is Bourguet's greatest strength in the data by a wide margin. When he completed a long throw, it was usually a high level of difficulty.

Diagnosing the Blitz

Jake Retzlaff struggled against the blitz. Whether it was diagnosing the blitz pre-snap or being slow to react after the snap, that was not one of Retzlaff's strengths. Retzlaff's PFF grade dropped from 86.1 when he was not blitzed to 55.9 when he was blitzed.

McCae Hillstead did an admirable job against the blitz, especially as a true freshman. There were no material changes to his grades when he was blitzed vs not. Hillstead's 63.1 grade against the blitz was the highest among the three quarterbacks. When the pressure got home, however, Hillstead struggled. He had the worst passing grade under pressure among the three quarterbacks.

Treyson Bourguet struggled against the blitz in 2023. His offensive grade against the blitz was 35.2.

Published | Modified
Casey Lundquist
CASEY LUNDQUIST

Casey Lundquist is the publisher and lead editor of Cougs Daily. He has covered BYU athletics for the last four years. During that time, he has published over 2,000 stories that have reached more than three million people.

Share on XFollow casey_lundquist
Home/Football