Dispelling the 3 Biggest Myths of BYU Football's Quarterback Battle

BYU quarterbacks Bear Bachmeier and McCae Hillstead warm up for the first scrimmage of Fall Camp
BYU quarterbacks Bear Bachmeier and McCae Hillstead warm up for the first scrimmage of Fall Camp | BYU Photo

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As BYU wraps up Fall Camp in less than a week, all eyes remain on the quarterback position. Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick officially announced on Monday that Bear Bachmeier and McCae Hillstead would receive the bulk of the first-team reps going forward. Roderick even suggested that one quarterback had begun to separate himself. By all accounts, that quarterback appears to be Bear Bachmeier. This assumption has led to contested debate, among BYU fans and media alike, for what this BYU team's ceiling can be under the leadership of a true freshman. Those debates, however, have created what this author considers to be three myths. Myths about what specific type of quarterback this team needs to reach its goals and the nature of this particular quarterback battle.

Myth #1: This is a battle of safe experience vs high upside inexperience

BYU quarterback McCae Hillstead at BYU Spring camp
BYU quarterback McCae Hillstead at BYU Spring camp | BYU Photo

When true freshman Zach Wilson was battling Senior Tanner Mangum for the starting job in 2018, the competition felt a lot different than this one does today. Mangum was the incumbent starter with 26 career appearances. While his career had plenty of highs and lows, everyone knew exactly what they were getting with Mangum. Wilson, on the other hand, demonstrated from day one that he could make every throw on the field, even if it occasionally meant throwing it to the opponent. Experience won out, and Mangum led BYU to an early top 25 ranking. Sadly, the engine gave out and Wilson could no longer be kept off the field by midseason.

This is not one of those battles. The narrative heading into Fall Camp was that Treyson Bourget's and Mccae Hillstead’s starting experience, combined with their tenure at BYU, would give them a leg up on the more talented Bachmeier. In this author’s opinion, that experience is overblown. Hillstead and Treyson have a combined 12 career starts in 5 combined years of college football. Neither had started more than 4 games in a season and neither have played a snap in over a year. In the game action they have seen, they showed flashes of brilliance. Both had their share of errant throws as well.

Even at BYU, their reps in practice over the last year were limited as they both acquiesced the bulk of their opportunities to others ahead of them on the depth chart. In summary, neither of these options are exactly pumpkin pie on Thanksgiving. Whether Aaron Roderick decides to go with Hillstead or the surging but inexperienced Bachmeier, there are no truly predictable, safe options. The differing levels of experience between the two are not significant enough to weigh as heavily in this decision as it did in 2018.

Myth #2: All BYU needs to compete for a Big 12 title is a quarterback that takes care of the football

BYU wide receiver Tiger Bachmeier at Fall Camp
BYU wide receiver Tiger Bachmeier at Fall Camp | BYU Photo

While this might shock you, the most important attribute of a successful Aaron Roderick quarterback is not ball security, but explosiveness. When BYU media and fans say that BYU needs a game manager who can safely deliver the football to playmakers in space, they think they are talking about Baylor Romney. Who they are actually talking about is Kedon Slovis. Many forget what an explosive passer Baylor Romney really was. Romney boasted a career average depth of target of 10.5 yards and 8.9 yards per attempt, both higher than Jaren Hall. While Romney did take care of football, he also was one of the best deep ball passers BYU has had in recent memory, completing roughly half of his 17 deep balls in 2021 with 0 turnover-worthy plays.

Slovis also took decent care of the football in 2023 with only 6 interceptions in 8 starts. However, his average depth of target that season was in the single digits as nearly 60% of his passes traveled under 10 yards. Of that 60% of passes, the average depth of target was .96 air yards per attempt. Unsurprisingly, BYU struggled to generate first downs and BYU finished 123rd nationally in available yards gained.

What changed in 2024? BYU had a quarterback that wasn’t afraid to push the ball down the field, even if it meant occasionally putting the ball in harm’s way. Jake Retzlaff averaged over 11 air yards per target and 8.1 yards per attempt. While he threw 12 interceptions last season, BYU scored more because Retzlaff’s aggressiveness gave them more opportunities to score, finishing 22nd in available yards gained. At the end of the day, taking care of the football is meaningless if the offense can't move the ball.

Many have said that this team is talented enough to have a quarterback who doesn’t make mistakes. History shows that is the lesser half of the QB equation. This author would argue that this BYU team is talented enough to overcome an inexperienced quarterback making freshman mistakes. They won 11 games with an experienced quarterback making some freshmen mistakes in 2024. What they cannot overcome is an offense that is never on the field because their quarterback can’t generate explosive plays or move the chains.

Myth #3 – BYU cannot compete for a Big 12 title if they start a true freshman at quarterback

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier celebrates with brother Tiger Bachmeier at Fall Camp
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier celebrates with brother Tiger Bachmeier at Fall Camp | BYU Photo

True freshmen are rarely good enough to start at the FBS level, but when they do, it’s because they are good players. Of the 156 FBS QBs with at least 130 dropbacks last season, only 12 were true freshmen. However, those true freshmen combined for a pass efficiency rating of 132.5, right around the national average. Jake Retzlaff’s pass efficiency rating in 2024? 136.6. If Aaron Roderick elects to start the true freshman Bachmeier, BYU fans should not expect him to look like Trevor Lawrence out of the gate, but the data suggests that they can hope for something that looks like Jake Retzlaff, and Jake Retzlaff was good enough to get BYU a pooch punt away from a conference championship game just last year.


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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.